Week 16 Start/Sit Questions

By :: Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)

Some things in fantasy football are easy. We know we should start Puka Nacua and Bijan Robinson. We know we should bench the backup running back who is only on our roster in case of injury and the guy who was ruled out early in the week. A lot of the decisions are made for us. However, there are a lot of things that are not so simple. All of the “in between” situations are what can make the difference between a few wins and losses, and therefore it can be the difference between a successful season or a failed season. Every Friday, we are here to help!!

I’ll take questions each week in our #fantasy-football channel in our Discord from people looking for Start/Sit advice and give my thoughts. This article will feature a few of those questions and responses each Friday, so join our Discord to be a part of the conversation or ask questions of your own!!

Question 1 :: Semifinals week and I’m projected to lose (0.5 PPR). My biggest question is Bucky Irving or Quinshon Judkins for RB2? I also have a stable of WRs to choose from: George Pickens, MHJ, Michael Wilson, Jauan Jennings, and Drake London? (wordrew)

Answer :: At running back you have to roll with Irving in a massive matchup for the Bucs and non-prohibitive matchup. The Bills defense looks like a strong matchup for Judkins and Tampa is involving some other backs, which might lead some to lean towards Judkins in this spot. However, Irving is still the main guy and should be heavily involved in a game where his team could score a lot of points. Meanwhile, the Browns offensive line is destroyed and the Bills are a team on a mission with the AFC East title still in view. Play the guy with the stronger offensive outlook in Irving. At wide receiver, it depends how many of those options you need to play and what injury situations end up telling us. Drake London still needs to be cleared and Wilson’s outlook depends on MHJ’s status. If all of those options are healthy and active, I would rank Pickens and London at the top, then the Cardinals guys, then Jennings. You’ll have to watch injury reports and check Saturday/Sunday rankings, however.

Question 2 :: Quinshon Judkins, Josh Jacobs, and Aaron Jones – have to pick two? (Chiefsboom40)

Answer :: Jacobs missed practice all week, but stated that he intends to play on Saturday. He plays before the others, so obviously your decision can wait for that news. I expect him to be active and, assuming he is, I trust him as I normally would in a massive game for the Packers. Jacobs is a gamer and among the toughest players in the league. I believe the missed practices are more about maintenance than being compromised, and if the injury is significant enough to affect his production, he probably won’t be active. Assuming that, you definitely start him. For the other spot, I lean Judkins over Jones. Both have great on-paper matchups against poor run defenses and Judkins is dealing with offensive line issues, but the reality is Jones has a limit to the potential workload he will see in this spot while Judkins is likely to touch the ball 20 to 25 times. Ride the volume.

Question 3 :: Brock Bowers or Kyle Pitts at tight end?  (maximusows)

Answer :: Maximus was asking me some questions about his semi-final matchup in his highest stakes league for this week off the air prior to our Fanduel Labs show on X/YouTube this week. There are a lot of dynamics around his situation, but it brought up a couple of good things to consider. First of all, his team also has Drake London. Obviously London’s status affects the outlook for Pitts significantly. Both tight ends play in the late window on Sunday, so both Maximus and his opponent will have had several players already in action prior to these games kicking off. My advice to him was that if London is out, Pitts is definitely the play. However, if London is going to play then the decision depends on how his matchup is looking. If he is way behind and looking like he has a low win probability, then I would go with Bowers. The reasoning there is in order to make up a big deficit he would likely need ceiling games from BOTH London and the tight end spot. Playing both Pitts and London is fine in a vacuum and what I would do if playing from ahead or in a close matchup, as the Raiders’ offensive situation looks so dire, but the nature of “what you need” could potentially lead me to playing Bowers.

Question 4 :: Would you consider Parkinson over Bowers? (shakey34).....

In full PPR, are you starting Jayden Reed over George Pickens or Emeka Egbuka? Both got me here, but both have been super shaky of late. Also, I have Marvin Harrison Jr. on the bench in case he plays. (JoeyDonutz)

Answer :: I packaged these questions together because they both bring up basically the same idea and concept. It is Week 16 and the Semi-Finals for most fantasy football leagues. It is easy to get uptight and overthink things, and questions like this are probably going through a lot of people’s minds. The reality here is that “momentum” or “recent production” is a psychological thing that is making you question what would normally be fairly obvious decisions because of how badly you want to win this matchup after a successful season. Colby Parkinson over Brock Bowers? I know Parkinson has been hot lately and the Raiders look atrocious, but in a season-long league you simply start Bowers over all but a handful of tight ends. Likewise with the Pickens question, sure he has struggled a bit of late and the Chargers have a good secondary, but he is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league who can go off against anyone and has an elite quarterback in a potentially explosive game environment. Sure, there are some positive indicators around Reed, but the Packers still use a handful of receivers with unpredictable target rates and their game could be a grueling matchup in cold weather. The message here is simply to START YOUR STUDS, unless you clearly have a strong option and not one that you are just wish-casting and envisioning them having their best game of the year while you get sent home.