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- Week 16: First Look
By: Mike Johnson (@Mjohnson86)
At this point in the season, most trade deadlines have passed so the “Buy Low, Sell High” article no longer makes sense! In its place, on Wednesdays we will give you a quick summary of each game’s important information to know and pay attention to as you get ready for your lineup decisions in these key weeks to end the season and into the playoffs.
Broncos @ Chargers
Spread/Total: LAC -3, 42
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Chargers WR Quentin Johnston and TE Will Dissly missed practice to start the week. WR Joshua Palmer would see increased work if Johnston misses the game, while TE Stone Smartt would get another start if Dissly misses again.
Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin picked up a quad injury in Week 15. If he were to miss, Javonte Williams would have a bigger role and take all the passing down work.
Matchup Notes:
This is the second meeting between these teams, with the Chargers winning the first one, 23-16.
The Chargers’ offense has been unable to run the ball since J.K. Dobbins went down with a knee injury, while the Broncos have one of the best secondaries in the league.
Texans @ Chiefs
Spread/Total: TBD
Weather: 40 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Status uncertain early in the week
Matchup Notes:
Everything about this matchup for the Chiefs depends on Mahomes. Can he play? If so, how effective will he be and will they run the ball more to protect him? Carson Wentz will start if Mahomes is unable to go.
The Chiefs’ defense has not been as good recently as they were to start the year. It will not be an easy matchup for Texans’ skill players, but not one we have to avoid.
Steelers @ Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -6, 45
Weather: 35 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Steelers WR George Pickens – Has missed the last two games and status is uncertain due to a hamstring injury.
Matchup Notes:
This is a rematch of a game from a few weeks ago where the Steelers won 18-16, without scoring a touchdown.
The winner of this game will be in first place in the division.
Pittsburgh has averaged only 215 yards of offense in its two games without Pickens.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry has surpassed 100 rushing yards only once in the last five games after hitting the mark five times in seven games prior to that.
Giants @ Falcons
Spread/Total: ATL -9, 41
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
The availability of Giants QBs Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito is in question. If both are out, veteran journeyman Tim Boyle would start for New York.
Matchup Notes:
The Falcons will turn to first-round rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. for his first career start as they try to catch the Bucs in the NFC South.
New York has the 29th-ranked pass defense in the league and was just shredded by Lamar Jackson for five touchdowns through the air.
Atlanta’s defense has been very strong against weak offenses, but very poor against good offenses.
Lions @ Bears
Spread/Total: DET -7, 48
Weather: 20’s and chance of light rain
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Lions RB David Montgomery is out for the season with a knee injury.
Bears RB Roschon Johnson has not played since Thanksgiving due to a concussion.
Matchup Notes:
The Lions’ defense has been decimated by injuries, which may lead to more volatile and high-scoring game environments to end the season.
Jahmyr Gibbs should be a bell cow for Detroit with Montgomery out of the picture. Veteran RB Craig Reynolds and rookie Sione Vaki will pick up the scraps.
Chicago’s run defense has been putrid this season and may be in trouble against a dominant Lions offensive line.
Cardinals @ Panthers
Spread/Total: ARI -3, 46
Weather: 40 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Panthers rookie WR Xavier Legette is expected to miss this game.
Cardinals backup RBs Emari Demercado is on IR and Trey Benson is battling an ankle injury, leaving James Conner in a massive role.
Matchup Notes:
Carolina’s run defense continues to be one of the worst in the league, surrendering season-best performances to several players/teams.
Panthers QB Bryce Young came back down to earth with a poor performance against the Cowboys after several good games.
Carolina RB Chuba Hubbard played over 90% of the snaps once again with Jonathon Brooks on IR.
Rams @ Jets
Spread/Total: LAR -3, 46
Weather: 25 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Jets RB Breece Hall returned from his knee injury in a slightly limited role last week, while rookie RB Braelon Allen suffered a back injury of unknown severity.
Matchup Notes:
These offenses have similar profiles with talented lead backs, dominant WR duos, and veteran QBs.
Both defenses rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA.
Los Angeles needs to win this game to stay ahead of the Seahawks, who they play next week, in the NFC West.
Eagles @ Commanders
Spread/Total: PHI -3, 48
Weather: 30 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is still on IR
Matchup Notes:
Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. had 24 touches in the first competitive game since Austin Ekeler went on IR.
Washington WR Dyami Brown stepped into an 80% snap share and route share in the team’s first game without Noah Brown.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts threw the ball over 30 times for the first time since September in last week’s win over the Steelers.
Browns @ Bengals
Spread/Total: CIN -7, 47
Weather: 30 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Browns RB Nick Chubb is out for the season with a broken foot.
Browns WR Cedric Tillman and TE David Njoku are “hopeful” to be back from their injuries this week.
Matchup Notes:
Cincinnati is still alive for a playoff berth, but the Bengals have to win all the rest of their games and get some help.
Cleveland has benched QB Jameis Winston and is going to start the young and inconsistent Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB.
Jerome Ford should step into a bell-cow role in a good matchup as he replaces Nick Chubb.
Patriots @ Bills
Spread/Total: BUF -13, 46
Weather: 15 with slight chance for snow
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Bills WR Curtis Samuel is dealing with a shoulder injury and may have to miss this week.
Matchup Notes:
New England’s defense is in the bottom three in the league, while Buffalo’s offense is a top-three unit.
Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye has at least 18 fantasy points in six of his nine starts.
Bills QB Josh Allen is averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks…..as a rusher, not counting his passing stats.
The lone bright spot of the Patriots’ defense has been lock-down cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
Titans @ Colts
Spread/Total: IND -4, 42
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Colts WR Alec Pierce suffered a concussion against the Broncos and will likely miss this game.
Matchup Notes:
Tennessee may be going back to veteran Mason Rudolph at QB in place of Will Levis.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson has thrown for under 200 yards in seven of his last eight appearances.
Titans RB Tony Pollard has been dealing with a lower-body injury and may have to be shut down at some point.
Vikings @ Seahawks
Spread/Total: MIN -3, 45
Weather: 50 with potential rain
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III continues to deal with a calf injury.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith was forced from Sunday night’s loss to the Packers with a knee injury. His status is in question for this week.
Matchup Notes:
Minnesota is one of the top three defenses in the league against the run and the pass.
Seattle’s offense will likely crater if Geno is unable to play.
The Seahawks are 1-5 in their last six home games.
Jaguars @ Raiders
Spread/Total: LVR -1, 40
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Raiders RB Sincere McCormick is likely to miss this game coming off a painful Week 14 and playing on a short week.
Matchup Notes:
The Jaguars’ passing game flowed primarily through their youth in Week 15, with WR Brian Thomas Jr. and TE Brenton Strange dominating the targets.
Las Vegas will either have to start QB Desmond Ridder again or try Aidan O’Connell in his return from a knee injury.
Raiders rookie TE Brock Bowers needs 15 receptions over his last three games to tie Puka Nacua for the most all-time catches for a rookie.
49ers @ Dolphins
Spread/Total: MIA -1, 45
Weather: 70 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle is likely to miss this week with a leg injury.
Matchup Notes:
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is a former 49ers assistant coach.
Miami is 1-4 when playing without QB Tua Tagovailoa and 5-4 when they are playing with him.
The 49ers’ once-potent offense has scored 10 points or less in three of their last four games.
Buccaneers @ Cowboys
Spread/Total: TB -4, 47
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
N/A
Matchup Notes:
Tampa Bay is one game ahead of Atlanta in the NFC South but lost both head-to-head matchups and must stay ahead to get in the playoffs as they do not hold the tie-breaker.
The Cowboys’ defense has been extremely matchup-dependent this season, performing well against weak opponents and struggling against strong ones, signaling that Tampa Bay’s seventh-ranked offense should do well here.
Bucs rookie WR Jalen McMillan’s role is growing and he is on fire right now, with three touchdowns in his last two games.
Saints @ Packers
Spread/Total: GB -13.5, 42
Weather: 30 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Saints RB Alvin Kamara is likely to miss this game with an abdominal injury, leaving second-year RB Kendre Miller as the lead back.
Matchup Notes:
Packers RB Josh Jacobs is on fire, with 100+ yards from scrimmage in six of his last seven games and 11 touchdowns during that stretch.
Green Bay is spreading out the targets in its passing game and ranks 30th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation.
The Saints will turn back to rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler as their starting quarterback in this game.