- OWS Daily Dose
- Posts
- Week 15: First Look
By: Mike Johnson (@Mjohnson86)
At this point in the season, most trade deadlines have passed so the “Buy Low, Sell High” article no longer makes sense! In its place, on Wednesdays we will give you a quick summary of each game’s important information to know and pay attention to as you get ready for your lineup decisions in these key weeks to end the season and into the playoffs.
Rams at 49ers
Spread/Total: SF -2, 48.5
Weather: 55 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF – Sprained foot on Sunday, uncertain status
Matchup Notes:
Patrick Taylor Jr. will start at RB for the 49ers if Guerendo can’t play.
Both teams are coming off huge scoring outbursts in Week 14
This is the second meeting between these teams, but both offenses have much different personnel available this time around.
Commanders at Saints
Spread/Total: WAS -7.5, 43.5
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Derek Carr, QB, NO – Fractured hand, out indefinitely
Austin Ekeler, RB, WAS – Placed on injured reserve
Matchup Notes:
The Saints played three games without Derek Carr earlier this season and lost every game by 18 or more points.
Washington had a Week 14 bye and is eyeing a playoff berth. They had lost three of their last four games prior to the bye.
The Commanders are sixth in rushing offense DVOA, while the Saints are 31st in run defense DVOA.
Chiefs at Browns
Spread/Total: KC -6.5, 43.5
Weather: 45, chance of rain
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Browns WR Cedric Tillman has missed the last two games with a concussion.
Matchup Notes:
A total of 10 of the Chiefs’ 12 wins have been by one score, including the last six.
The Browns have allowed 24 or more points in five of their last six games, with the only exception being the “blizzard” game in Week 12.
The Chiefs’ previously strong pass defense has been giving up good games to QBs in recent weeks.
Bengals at Titans
Spread/Total: CIN -5, 48
Weather: 50 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Titans QB Will Levis re-injured his shoulder in Week 14 but was able to play through it.
Matchup Notes:
The Titans’ defense is very hard to run on and the Bengals are throwing the ball as well as any team in the league right now.
The Bengals are still technically alive to make the playoffs but must win all of their remaining games.
Cincinnati’s defense is ranked near the bottom of the league against both the run and the pass.
Dolphins at Texans
Spread/Total: HOU -2.5, 47
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert is battling a hip injury and missed Week 14. Rookie Jaylen Wright operated as De’Von Achane’s backup in Mostert’s absence.
Matchup Notes:
Both offensive play callers in this game formerly worked under 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan.
The Texans are averaging 28 points per game since WR Nico Collins returned to the lineup in Week 11.
The Dolphins have won four of their last five games and are still alive for a playoff berth, while Houston is in the driver’s seat in the AFC South.
Ravens at Giants
Spread/Total: BAL -14.5, 43.5
Weather: 45 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Giants WR Malik Nabers played through a groin injury in Week 14 and was targeted 10 times.
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman injured his knee in their loss to the Eagles in Week 13 but is practicing to start this week.
Ravens WR Diontae Johnson is suspended for this game.
Matchup Notes:
The Giants have scored more than 20 points only three times all season.
Baltimore is 13-3 coming off a bye week under John Harbaugh and we rarely see a 14.5-point road favorite.
New York’s defense has been far worse against the pass than the run this season.
After this week, the Ravens will play two games in a five-day span in Weeks 16 and 17.
Jets at Jaguars
Spread/Total: NYJ -3, 40
Weather: 70 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Jets RB Breece Hall missed Week 14 and his status is in question for this week due to a knee injury.
Matchup Notes:
WR Davante Adams leads the Jets in targets since joining the team.
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis split the RB duties fairly evenly without Hall in Week 14.
Jags QB Mac Jones posted a passer rating of under 70 in each of the three games he has started.
Cowboys at Panthers
Spread/Total: CAR -1, 43
Weather: 50 with strong chance of rain
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb has a shoulder injury he has been playing through and the team has now been eliminated from the playoffs.
Matchup Notes:
Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL last week and Chuba Hubbard should have a massive workload in a great matchup.
Bryce Young has at least one passing TD in every game since reclaiming the starting job.
Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle is averaging 110 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks.
Buccaneers at Chargers
Spread/Total: LAC -2.5, 46.5
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Bucs RB Bucky Irving left last week’s game with a back injury after struggling through practice prior to the game.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert injured his leg against the Chiefs but is expected to play.
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey is expected to return after his one-week absence.
Matchup Notes:
Tampa Bay’s defense faces the second-highest number of pass attempts per game in the league and Los Angeles has struggled to run the ball without J.K. Dobbins.
This game has huge playoff implications for both teams.
A total of 10 of 13 Chargers games this season have had under 40 points scored, while 10 of 13 Bucs games have had more than 40 points scored.
Colts at Broncos
Spread/Total: DEN -4.5, 43.5
Weather: 50 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Colts WR Josh Downs is uncertain with a shoulder injury.
Matchup Notes:
Denver has won three straight home games, averaging over 35 points in those games.
This game has huge playoff implications for the AFC, as the Broncos are the current No. 7 seed and the Colts are the first team on the outside looking in with respect to the playoffs.
Denver’s No.2-ranked run defense may force Colts QB Anthony Richardson to prove he can beat them with his arm.
Patriots at Cardinals
Spread/Total: ARI -6.5, 45.5
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
N/A
Matchup Notes:
Cardinals rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. averaged six targets per game in their first 10 games, but he’s averaged nine targets per game since the Week 11 bye.
Arizona has lost three straight games since its bye to fall two games out of first place in the division.
New England’s defense has been uncharacteristically bad this season and Arizona has beaten up on weaker opponents – specifically at home.
Bills at Lions
Spread/Total: DET -2.5, 53.5
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Bills WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid may be returning after multi-week absences.
Matchup Notes:
The Lions’ run defense is notoriously strong and may force Josh Allen into “Superman-mode” once again.
These are two of the top five offenses in the league. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in seven straight games, while Detroit has scored over 40 points four times.
Detroit’s offensive line should be able to get a strong push in the running game against the “light” personnel the Bills use on defense.
Steelers at Eagles
Spread/Total: PHI -5, 43.5
Weather: 50 and clear
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Steelers WR George Pickens may miss another game with a hamstring injury.
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (knee) is out for a few more weeks.
Matchup Notes:
These are two of the better defenses in the league.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes only once since their Week 5 bye.
Packers at Seahawks
Spread/Total: GB -2.5, 47
Weather: 45 and windy
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker may miss another game with his calf injury.
Packers WR Romeo Doubs has missed the last two games with a concussion.
Matchup Notes:
Last week, Seattle’s offense scored more than 20 points for the first time since Week 7.
Seahawks veteran WR Tyler Lockett has been targeted just 10 times over the last four games as the team prioritizes Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf.
Green Bay has scored 30+ points in three straight games for the first time since Jordan Love became the starter.
Bears at Vikings
Spread/Total: MIN -7, 44
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Bears RB Roschon Johnson missed Week 14 with a concussion and veteran RB Travis Homer left that game with a head injury as well.
Matchup Notes:
Minnesota’s defense has been hard to run on all year and the Bears are among the worst rushing teams in the league.
These teams played just a couple of weeks ago in a high-scoring overtime affair.
Chicago’s secondary was torched last week and the Vikings’ passing game is coming off its best game of the season.
Falcons at Raiders
Spread/Total: ATL -4.5, 43.5
Weather: Dome
Key Injuries to Monitor:
Raiders QB’s Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew are done for the season, leaving Desmond Ridder under center.
Matchup Notes:
This game may be the last chance for Kirk Cousins to fend off rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. The coaching staff has stayed committed so far, but a loss to the hapless Raiders would likely be the end of the road.
Las Vegas appears to have handed its backfield to rookie RB Sincere McCormick, who is coming off a very strong game against a good Bucs run defense.
WR Jakobi Meyers has double-digit targets in four of his last five games, while TE Brock Bowers has alternated 30-point fantasy games with single- digit outings.