Week 1 Starts/Fades

Daily Dose Fam,

The 2024 season is here!

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Week 1 Starts/Fades

This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value. “Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents. “Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc. 

Week 1 disclaimer: We have just recently completed our drafts and the order of drafts or value of auction bids, generally, have things like the strength of the player’s assumed role or the perceived fantasy friendliness of the team’s offense baked into them already. In Week 1, it really comes down to what bets you are willing to make on increases in role or efficiency, or on a high-scoring game environment, etc. vs. which ones you want to wait and see a week or more of actual snap and usage data before locking players into your fantasy lineups.

Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season with some notes on my thought process included:

QB

Start:  Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA (vs. JAX)

• Home favorite QB in a high-total game against a middling Jaguars defense that was below average against QBs last season.

• Tua is an accurate QB who makes quick decisions and distributes the ball the the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and a stable of the fastest RBs in the league, then lets them do a lot of work after the catch.

• Tua was often drafted outside of the starting QB options but you can feel comfortable starting him as a back-end QB1 this week.

Fade:  Brock Purdy, QB, SF (vs. NYJ)

• Home favorite but facing a brutal matchup against a Jets defense that was one of the top units in the league against the pass last season and which features a deep pass rushing unit and first-team All-Pros at LB and CB.

• The 49ers offense has only recently gotten two of their top players back to camp after contract holdouts (WR Brandon Aiyuk and LT Trent Williams), and their first-round draft pick, WR Ricky Pearsall, was shot in the chest in an attempted robbery over the weekend.

• Purdy is generally a very efficient QB and (similarly to Tua) has the benefit of some incredible weapons to distribute the ball to, and there will be better days ahead for him and the rest of the 49ers’ offense; however, this week he should be on fantasy benches in single-QB formats.

RB

Start:  Chuba Hubbard, RB, CAR (@ NO)

• Rookie phenom Jonathan Brooks is on the PUP list and is out the first month or longer.

• Hubbard handled 15+ touches each of the final seven games last season.

• New HC Dave Canales has shown a willingness to feed a workhorse back in the running and passing games (see White, Rachaad last season).

• The matchup with the Saints defense is neither an easy nor a daunting one. The game total is relatively low, but Hubbard’s expected volume and ability to play in all phases should make up for it.

• If you drafted Hubbard, you probably got him with a later pick, but this early part of the season is the time to get him in your lineup as a Flex or Low-End RB2 Option while the Panthers have him in a primary role.

Fade:  Zamir White, RB, LVR (@ LAC)

• The Raiders go on the road to face a new-look Chargers team now coached by Jim Harbaugh, a man who very publicly prides himself on running the ball and stopping the run.

• White has an uncertain pass-game role, as the team retained Ameer Abdullah, signed Alexander Mattison, and drafted Dylan Laube.

• The Raiders’ offense features mediocre-to-below-average QB play that seems likely to feature Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and even Michael Mayer ahead of the RBs.

• You probably drafted White as your RB2 or RB3 and in better matchups and game environments he will help you, but this week is one where you should look for better options.

WR

Start: Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF (vs. ARI)

• High-total game at home against the Cardinals defense which is expected to be shaky this season.

• Shakir is the top incumbent WR on the depth chart for a Josh Allen-led offense, with his main competition coming in the form of a raw second-round NFL rookie and three NFL journeymen.

• Shakir caught 39 of 45 regular-season targets last season and scored TDs in both BUF postseason games.

• Shakir is a great Flex Option, particularly in PPR leagues.

Fade:  Jayden Reed, WR, GB (Friday night in Brazil, vs. PHI)

• Reed was generally drafted as a WR3 this offseason and scored 10 TDs on 75 touches as a rookie, but he came off the field in two-WR sets.

• Christian Watson was often drafted shortly after Reed and has 14 career TDs on 80 career touches.

• Romeo Doubs was the only WR to play all three preseason snaps with Jordan Love this year and the unit’s lone drive together ended with a 65-yard TD to Dontayvion Wicks.

• The upside is obviously there and the Packers will provide fantasy WR goodness this season, but this is just a situation to monitor for a week or two before locking Reed (or any GB WR) into lineups.

TE

Start:  Brock Bowers, TE, LV (@ LAC)

• Legendary collegiate TE who is the first player to win the John Mackey Award (for the nation’s top TE) in back-to-back seasons.

• New Raiders OC Luke Getsy’s offense in Chicago last season targeted TE at a top-10 rate in the league.

• Bowers is a true pass-catching TE prospect with top-half-of-Round-1 draft pedigree, and the Raiders have shown a willingness to deploy him, literally, all over their formations (in-line, split wide, out of the backfield). 

• Bowers was drafted as a fringe starting TE in most leagues, but the state of the TE position this week between injuries and tough matchups allows you to start him with confidence as a back-end TE1, even before fully understanding his role in the offense. 

Fade: Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL (@ CLE)

• The Cowboys are one of six teams with an implied total of under 20 points this week as they go on the road to face a stifling Browns pass defense that allowed the fewest total completions and lowest completion percentage in the league last season.

• Ferguson was drafted as a starting TE option after his breakout, TE9-finish last season, but the Browns allowed the fewest yards to opposing TEs in the league in 2023.

• There will likely be better weeks ahead for Ferguson and the rest of the Dallas passing game, as this seems likely to be one of their toughest defensive matchups all season.

To come full circle here, it’s Week 1. In most cases you should probably be starting something close to the lineup that you came out of your draft with. You know your own team’s strongest and weakest spots. You might’ve started your draft RB-RB and you don’t need to consider the Zamir Whites of the world at all. You might’ve executed a zero-or-hero RB draft strategy and your plan A for Week 1 has been Chuba Hubbard this whole time. 

I laid out the case for a wait-and-see approach with the Packers WRs, and a similar one could be made for the Chargers WRs or any number of 1A/1B type backfields. If you have strong conviction about one of these situations, I’d encourage you to play your guy this week if it makes sense for your team and league. We will have a lot more information to be working with at this time next week as we look to combine our pre-draft takes with the reality of Week 1 outcomes. 

Enjoy the opening week of NFL football everyone!