TNF Week 15 Showdown: Falcons at Buccaneers

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 15 kicks off with the Falcons visiting the Bucs for a 44.5 total game in which Tampa is favored by 4. We have a plethora of injury situations to deal with, first of all. Drake London has yet to “practice” this week despite the team’s practices only being walkthroughs. That makes it extremely likely he sits, so I’ll assume he’s out. Kyle Pitts is also questionable for the Falcons, but seeing as how he played 92% of the offensive snaps last week and was listed as limited in the walkthroughs, I feel highly confident he’s playing. On the Bucs side of things, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan have both been practicing while on injured reserve. My guess is that Mike Evans plays, and if he does, that means McMillan’s status is pretty meaningless, as he would be, at best, in line for some WR4 snaps (and he might even be behind Tez Johnson). Cade Otton is also listed as questionable and was listed as DNP in both of the team’s walkthroughs thus far. He didn’t leave last week’s game with an injury, so I’m guessing it’s maintenance, but this is the one spot I don’t have a good feeling about. To sum up, on the Falcons, I think London’s out, and Pitts is in. On the Bucs, I think Evans is in, McMillan doesn’t really matter, and Otton is more likely in than out, but I’m something like 60/40 on that spot. Whew.

TAMPA BAY

On the Bucs side of things, Bucky Irving got dinged up last week, and while he returned to the game, he wasn’t all that effective, and he ended up playing just 49% of the snaps, the lowest he’s played in any game this season, including his first game back from a lengthy injury. I have to think the injury played into this, but since he isn’t on the injury report at all now, I think we should treat him as if he’s fine. He handled 17 opportunities last week, which was his lowest of the season but still respectable, and that highlights just how good his role is. The matchup here is neutral, the Bucs are large home favorites, and thus Bucky is a solid on-paper play, especially so if Evans plays, because the Tampa receivers are all negatively impacted by Evans returning (and are priced for life without him) while Bucky isn’t impacted by Evans. The only real risk to Bucky is that Sean Tucker is quite good and Tampa insists on using Rachaad White despite him being very much #notgood, which means even though he’s the lead back, there are two other guys hanging around capable of vulturing him, whereas most running backs only have to deal with 1 backup threat. To me, it’s worth the risk, and I think Bucky has the second-highest overall points projection of any skill position player behind only Bijan Robinson. White and Tucker are dart throws as they somewhat cannibalize each other. I’d prefer playing Tucker because he’s much cheaper, but both will be in my player pool. 

In the passing game, Evans return puts Tampa back at full strength in its receiving corps with him, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin. That’s an awfully talented group. I’d guess Evans is eased back in a bit as that’s usually what the Bucs do with guys returning from lengthy layoffs, and at $9k, he’s pretty fully priced. I think he still does have ceiling, but it is very risky, leaving him as a pay up to be contrarian option. Egbuka has actually struggled without Evans. Since Week 5, he has only reached double-digit DK points once in eight games (his explosion against Seattle). That’s a fairly small sample size and the kind of adjustment period you’d expect rookie receivers to need, and I think the downsides of having another target earner on the field will be offset for Egbuka by not being the primary focus of the opposing pass defense. His recent struggles have also brought his salary down to the lowest it’s been since Week 1, so I’m on board here (though among guys at the higher end of the salary range, I prefer Bucky).

Perfect for Single Entry or MME

Next, we come to Godwin, who has been a challenge for me this season. He has been one of my favorite players but it seems like a combination of age and injuries is catching up with him, as he ranks very poorly in predictive metrics such as yards per route run (1.43) and separation score (64th among WRs) – the lowest marks of his career. That’s not to say he can’t have a good game, but at $8,400, he’s kind of spendy given that he’s now essentially the WR3 for Tampa, and his season high is just over 10 DK points. Of the primary Bucs receivers, for tournaments, I’d rank them as Egbuka, then Evans, then Godwin. Some combination of Jalen McMillan, Tez Johnson, and Sterling Shepard will split the rest of the wide receiver snaps. If McMillan is active, these guys are all thin dart throws, whereas if McMillan is not active, they become at least a little bit more robust. Now, if I’m wrong and Evans misses, that leaves a primary WR trio of Egbuka, Godwin, and then some combo of Tez // McMillan // Shepard, which bumps them all up (duh) and makes Tez more of a value play than a dart throw.

UPDATE: Cade Otton has been listed as doubtful, so he’s almost certainly out. In his absence, Payne Durham should play the majority of the tight end snaps, but he’s mostly a blocker, as is Devin Culp, who should play the TE2 role. Because they’re so cheap they will project decently, and from a point-per-dollar standpoint they’re both viable plays, but I question the ceiling given what is likely to be an extremely limited receiving role …3-5 points sounds nice for $600, but it would take a fairly rare runout for that to result in the player landing in a winning tournament lineup. For me, this just bumps up the Bucs wide receivers, mainly Godwin, who runs similar shorter area routes to what Otton will be leaving behind.

At tight end, Cade Otton has had a tough time putting up any sort of relevant fantasy scores this season. He has yet to score a touchdown and has just 4 red zone targets on the year. Every one of the wide receivers talked about has at least 4 red zone targets, even Evans, who has only played in four games. Otton is not a major per-target yardage threat and needs either a lot of targets or a touchdown to find a ceiling, and with a lot of wide receiver target competition and no real red zone role, his odds of getting either of those outcomes are fairly slim. 

ATLANTA

On the Falcons side, their running back usage is always maddening for DFS players, with Bijan Robinson always a threat to be vultured by RB2 Tyler Allgeier, who has a whopping EIGHT rushing scores on the year, while Bijan only has five. Bijan is still averaging 16.5 carries and 5.4 targets per game against 8.3 carries and 1 target for Allgeier, but Allgeier has 18 carries inside the 10-yard line compared to 12 for Bijan. That robust goal line role for Allgeier is what always dings Bijan on full slates, but on a Showdown, Bijan’s extremely robust floor makes him stronger comparatively against the other skill position players. With double-digit DK points in all but one game, and with his price at its second lowest point of the season, Bijan is the best skill position play in this game. His extremely strong passing game role (especially with Drake London out) offsets any game script risk as road underdogs; it also makes up for Tampa facing one of the highest opposing passing play rates in the league. Worth noting here is that for years the Bucs have been extremely difficult to run against, which probably plays into them still facing a 60% opposing passing play rate (27th-lowest opposing rush rate faced), but they’re allowing a league-average 4.2 yards per carry, so the matchup is no longer especially imposing. Allgeier is one of the strongest RB plays in the league, and while no passing game role makes his floor scary, his touchdown equity is awesome. He’s a better on-paper play than White or Tucker, and his modest $4k price makes him firmly in play. 

In the passing game, London’s absence leaves a large target void. Without London, Atlanta has played a primary wide receiver trio of Darnell Mooney, David Sills, and Dylan Drummond, and then Deven Thompkins has played a few offensive snaps as the WR4 the last couple of weeks. Here are the stats for this group without London in the last three games, with 86 Kirk Cousins pass attempts:

• Mooney: 7/79/0 on 16 targets (19.3% target share)

• Sills: 4/31/2 on 11 targets (12.8% target share)

• Drummond: 7/42/0 on 11 targets (12.8% target share)

• Thompkins: 3/27/0 on 3 targets (3.5% target share)

• Kyle Pitts (tight end): 15/97/0 on 23 targets (26.7% target share)

• Bijan also has a 9/96/0 receiving line on 11 targets, another 12.8% target share.

One of these things is not like the other, but we’ll come back to Pitts in a minute here. Kirk Cousins has just not been able to generate any wide receiver production at all. Cousins has been legitimately terrible, and even at $8,800 in a positive matchup, he’s a tough click, but the role is still robust, and quarterbacks in Showdown are always strong plays on paper. It’s fair to consider a rule of “at least 1 of Cousins or the Bucs defense” and think that either Cousins is so cheap that he puts up a useful score, or Tampa’s D gets to him over and over and appears in winning lineups. Mooney has had a rough go of being the WR1, but the underlying target share is solid – not elite, but solid – and $6,600 is a very fair price for that kind of target share. He’s risky given the lack of performance, but I think he’s actually likely to go underowned relative to his ceiling (even though the floor is scary). The other wide receivers are not earning targets, though they’re all cheap and are in play as tourney options. Overall, I’d prefer the cheap Falcons wideouts to the cheap Bucs guys like Johnson, McMillan, Shepard, and Otton, as while the QB play is much worse, there is just so much less target competition for the Atlanta guys. They’re the kind of uncomfortable plays that are tough to make, but while anything can happen in one game, over time, you’d make more money playing Sills // Drummond over McMillan // Johnson // Shepard.

At tight end, though, is where Cousins has really focused. Pitts leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards without London on the field. Priced at just $6,400, he’s going to project as an extremely strong value – and he is, even if I have a hard time wanting to play him because, you know, he’s Kyle Pitts, but the price is egregiously low given the role we’ve seen him have (Pitts at $6,400 will also keep $6,600 Mooney’s ownership lower). As road underdogs, we can expect elevated passing volume from the Falcons; call it something like 30-34 pass attempts for Cousins, which gives Pitts an expected 8 or so targets, which is very, very good at his price. One knock is an almost complete lack of red zone role with just 5 targets on the season, but no Falcon really has many (London leads with 12, Mooney has 6, everyone else has 4 or fewer). The Falcons just tend to utilize their running backs heavily in the red zone, but unlike Otton on the other side of the game, Pitts has a significantly higher target projection as well as more per-target yardage upside, so he can get there just via catches and yards without necessarily finding the end zone. TE2 Charlie Woerner is primarily a blocker with 6 targets on the season. 

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

This game should be an interesting one to watch. The Bucs are clearly the better team and are getting healthier while Atlanta is still missing one of its two primary offensive pieces, but Tampa has not exactly been blowing opponents out of the water lately and is on a 1-4 streak after losing to the Saints at home last week (lol). Tampa’s the better team, but odds are that this game remains close and competitive throughout. I think it’s entirely reasonable to play Bucs onslaughts here, given just how awful Cousins has been, though. 5-1 Bucs builds are definitely in consideration for me. 

CASH GAMES

In cash games, Bijan, Bucky, and Mayfield are the main priorities, while Cousins is going to project as a solid on-paper option, but I think, given his extremely poor play, he isn’t a must-play in cash (very rare for a QB). Pitts is a great cash option in the mid range, kickers are always viable, and then Allgeier and Sills are my favorite value plays.

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, Bijan and Bucky are the top captain options, and I’m fine with either, while other captains I want to make sure I’m overweight the field on are Pitts, Mooney, Egbuka, and Evans (and that’s probably my entire captain pool). 

Some groups to consider ::

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 1 of Sills, Drummond, and Thompkins (it’s been really tough to find Atlanta WR production with Cousins, but you could do at most 2 and throw Mooney in the group for a less restrictive rule)

• At most 2 of Bijan, Allgeier, and Cousins (hard to find enough touchdowns for all 3 to be viable unless you’re building 5-1 Falcons onslaughts)

• At most 1 of White and Tucker

• At most 1 of Johnson, McMillan, and Shepard assuming Evans plays. If Evans is out, add Otton to this group and make it an at most 2 rule. 

• For a general overview of Xandamere’s Showdown rules, refer here.