TNF Showdown Week 9: Ravens at Dolphins

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 9 and we’re officially at the midpoint of the regular season. Thursday has the Ravens in Miami for a whopping 51.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 7.5. Lamar Jackson is expected to be back after, oddly, barely missing playing Week 8. It cannot be overstated how much of an upgrade this is for Baltimore after they managed 30 against a listless Bears team last week, but otherwise scored 20, 10, and 3 points in their games without Lamar. The Ravens are shockingly 2-5 on the season, but in a weak division, they are still very live for the playoffs (and perhaps even the favorites with Lamar back). They’ll be playing with a ton of motivation here. Miami, of course, sucks. 

MIAMI

On the Dolphins side of things, De’Von Achane has seen his snaps drop to 55% and 67% the last two weeks after previously not being any lower than 73% in a game this season. The last two games were blowouts, and surely that had something to do with it, but of course, there’s some real blowout risk in this game, too. The bad for Achane is that he’s only averaging 13.4 carries per game. The good news for Achane is that he’s very talented and averaging a massive 6.25 targets per game. He’s not quite CMC, but the receiving role is kinda close to CMC’s. It’s tough for me to want to spend $11.4k on a running back who’s only broken 20 DK points three times this year and only really had one smash ceiling performance, but the floor is rock solid due to all of the passing game work, and there’s clearly ceiling as well. RB2 Ollie Gordon is a bit expensive for the RB2 role, especially considering his very modest workloads in non-blowout situations. The one thing in Gordon’s favor is that he has 10 red zone rushes (compared to Achane’s 16), so there is some goal-line vulture opportunity, but it’s possible a touchdown doesn’t get him into optimal lineups given his price, relatively few touches, and lack of passing game work. RB3 Jaylen Wright got his first touches of the season late in last week’s blowout win, but it’s unlikely he’s a difference maker, as the odds of Miami blowing out the Ravens are fairly low. Overall, Achane is fine (especially given the volatility of the skill position players on the Baltimore side), but probably a little bit overpriced relative to his ceiling.

In the passing game, without Tyreek Hill and with Darren Waller hurt again, it’s basically Jaylen Waddle, Achane, and a pile of people most folks haven’t heard of. Waddle obviously has much-improved upside without Tyreek (outside of Cleveland curb-stomping Miami, Waddle has 95, 99, and 110 receiving yards in the games since Tyreek got hurt). His target volume is still relatively modest, but if Miami keeps this one close, he could push for 8-10 targets, and he’s also seeing more downfield work with 3 receptions of 40+ yards in those four games. Similar to Achane, Waddle is a good on-paper play whose only real sticking point is his price. At $10.4k, he’s priced like a top-tier wide receiver, and on this offense, he’s more of a high-end WR2 than a WR1. WR2 Malik Washington has at least 5 targets in every game since the Hill injury, though that’s topped out at 36 receiving yards as he’s working shorter areas of the field while Waddle runs more deep routes. The volume puts him firmly in play for me, especially in a game script that is likely to see Miami passing heavily as the game goes on. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has actually outsnapped Washington in all four non-Tyreek games, but while Washington has 23 targets in those games, NWI only has 8. Yikes. NWI has been a solid target-earner at previous stops in his career, so I think there’s some upside here, but it’s a very risky spot to attack given his lack of volume. Washington is the far superior on-paper play, but NWI makes sense as a contrarian tournament option. Miami also had Cedrick Wilson on the field for the first time last week, and with Dee Eskridge questionable, Wilson would be in line for some work – he’s flashed some talent earlier in his career as well and could be a punt play, as could Eskridge if he plays. I wouldn’t play these guys together.

Primary tight end Julian Hill is also questionable with an ankle injury and has not practiced this week, which last game led Tanner Conner and Greg Dulcich to split the tight end snaps. If Hill plays, he’s primarily a blocker who mostly just sucks any upside from the other TEs, but he is cheap enough to use as a thin value option. Tanner is the more interesting pass catcher who is overpriced if Hill plays, but a potentially useful piece if Hill is out, while Dulcich was just recently signed to the active roster and could potentially get a couple of targets if Hill misses. 

BALTIMORE

On the Ravens side we know Derrick Henry is going to play fewer snaps than we’d like, but we also know his upside is massive in one of the best RB matchups of the year against the Dolphins atrocious run D. Miami is giving up an insane 5 yards per carry and 145 rushing yards per game, and I don’t know if you knew this, but the Ravens are a pretty decent rushing offense. Henry is the premium play of the high-end skill position players, but he’s likely to be very popular. He can certainly hit with Lamar, but just consider carefully whether or how to play them together, because if you captain one of them and play them both, your roster choices start to get pretty constricted, and it’s really easy to end up running into a lot of duplicates. RB2 Justice Hill gets enough passing game work to potentially matter at $3,600, and I prefer him to the more expensive RB2 on the Miami side (Hill has 15 targets in four games with Lamar – not shabby). We’ve also seen Keaton Mitchell show up for a handful of touches in the last couple of games, and while I suspect most of that is due to the games not being competitive late, he can be considered in Ravens onslaught builds. 

In the passing game, we know the deal with the Ravens: they spread the ball around a ton and are infuriating. We saw Devontez Walker get 2 touchdowns while playing just 13 offensive snaps in Week 2. But, overall, Zay Flowers is the main guy here. Flowers was running near a 30% target share with Lamar earlier in the year and overall has a 30.6% share on the year (though obviously the last four weeks aren’t especially meaningful). While it’s unlucky the Ravens throw more than 30 times in any game, Flowers is the one guy you can generally count on for some volume. Miami’s stats against opposing pass catchers look pretty solid, but that’s mainly because teams aren’t passing against them because: A) you can run on them so easily, and B) Miami sucks, leading to them facing just 28 pass plays per game on average. It’s pretty easy to see Lamar only attempting something like 20-24 passes here, which would leave Flowers the only guy likely to see meaningful volume, and everyone else projects for something like 1-4 targets. Flowers is a reasonable play, though I’d consider him the weakest of the big four skill position players (Achane, Waddle, Henry, and Flowers). Rashod Bateman at $6,400 is an okay option in a volume-limited spot because his red zone role is solid, but he’s a little expensive, to the point where something like 2 catches for 20 yards and a score doesn’t necessarily put him in winning lineups. It’s when we dip down lower to guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Tylan Wallace, or the aforementioned Walker that we can find prices where, if the guy scores, he could be optimal. All of these are very fragile, but because of how likely the Ravens are to score 3+ touchdowns, they can all still be viably included in player pools.

Tight end, though, is where I’m more interested: Mark Andrews is $5k and has a better red zone role than Bateman, putting him at the top of the non-Flowers Baltimore pass catchers for me. Isaiah Likely is a very, very good receiver who’s playing a lot of snaps but hasn’t seen production and as a result is just $2k – he’s actually my overall third favorite Ravens pass catcher behind Flowers and Andrews. And then Charlie Kolar caught a TD last week just because the Ravens hate fantasy players, so he should at least be included as an MME punt. That’s a LOT of pass catchers. Andrews and Likely are the two I’d want the highest exposure to (Flowers is good, but I’d rather play more of Waddle/Henry/Achane at that price range, so I probably won’t have too much Flowers). The rest I’ll just sprinkle around.

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

The way this is likeliest to play out is with Baltimore comfortably controlling the game, but with Miami hanging around close enough to not get totally blown out of the water. I’m entirely confident in Baltimore’s ability to score points – the question is if Miami can answer. At home and with Baltimore’s defense still missing some key pieces, I think there are decent odds that Miami can at least be competitive. Of course, you can bet on Baltimore blowing Miami out, which is well within the range of outcomes. You can even bet on Miami blowing Baltimore out, which is far less likely, but will also be virtually unowned. 

CASH GAMES

In cash games, I want to prioritize Lamar, Henry, and Achane (whose floor I think is higher than Tua’s), but Tua is fine if you can’t get to Achane. It’s awfully tough to get to all four. Kickers are always solid in cash, and then my favorite sub-kicker cheap guys are Washington and Justice Hill (Conner viable as well if Julian Hill misses).

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, we’re going to see a ton of captain exposure on Lamar, Achane, and Henry. I very much favor Henry there (and Lamar’s fine, I just tend to avoid QB captains), and then I also want to be overweight on Waddle, Washington, Andrews, and even a smidge of Likely.

Some groups to consider ::

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 2 of Henry, Hill, and Mitchell

• At most 1 of Kolar and Likely

• At most 2 of Hopkins, Wallace, Walker, and Bateman

• At most 1 of Eskridge and Wilson (if Eskridge plays)

• At most 1 Dolphins TE (depending on who plays)

• (For a general overview of Xandamere’s Showdown rules, refer here)