TNF Showdown Week 8: Vikings at Chargers

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And now let’s get to today’s featured from the Daily Dose …

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 8 and we’re just about halfway through the season already. We have the Vikings visiting the Chargers for a 44.5 total game with Los Angeles favored by 3. J.J. McCarthy will still be out for the Vikings, leaving Carson Wentz as the quarterback, while Aaron Jones may make his return from injured reserve to reinforce the Minnesota backfield…and so we’ll start there.

MINNESOTA

Assuming Jones returns, that removes Jordan Mason from bell cow status and should return the two backs to some sort of timeshare – probably close to an even split. This is an unfortunate development for DFS because the Chargers have been getting trampled by opposing running backs lately, allowing big performances to Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Cam Skattebo in four consecutive weeks. Assuming the Vikings keep things close, it’s very plausible one of their running backs has a big game, and Mason is a bit priced down into territory where he’s still in play as a contrarian tournament piece even if it’s a timeshare. I’d sooner play Mason than Jones, as it’s possible Jones gets eased back in a bit, but both are viable. They’re volatile options, but I expect ownership will be low, and so it’ll be easy to be overweight the field should you desire it. I wouldn’t pair them together. If Jones doesn’t play, Mason is in a much stronger bell cow role and at $8.6k would project extremely well, while RB2 Zavier Scott would be viable as a tourney punt assuming he’s in, and Cam Akers would fill that role should Scott miss. 

In the air, Justin Jefferson is $11.8k, his most expensive Showdown price of the season, despite only having two games over 20 DK points on the year so far. Jefferson is immensely talented, but the matchup isn’t ideal, and neither is his quarterback situation. He’s a tricky play here because the ceiling is awesome, but the floor is pretty scary for his price, and yet his brand name means we’re almost never going to get an ownership discount on him in a Showdown. I’m probably a terrified-but-underweight position here. WR2 Jordan Addison, though, has actually outscored Jefferson on a points-per-game basis, which is admittedly a tiny sample size, but Addison is also very talented, and as Pulse has pointed out in our Discord, Addison actually has more 30+ DK point games in the last two years than Jefferson. Odd, isn’t it? At $7,400, Addison sure looks tempting, and since he’s priced right around all the Chargers wideouts, his ownership will likely be kept in check a bit. The WR3 is Jalen Nailor, who is in roughly a half-time role that has still earned him 3-5 targets every game; that’s a totally fair price at $3,600, and while he isn’t an exciting play, he’s a reasonable value option, and if he finds paydirt he is also getting enough volume that he probably finds his way into the optimal lineup. Worth noting: this could just be fluky, but Nailor currently leads the team in red zone targets with 8, and while I’d be stunned if that continues throughout the year, he does at least have some trust when in the red zone, and that’s valuable. Adam Thielen has been mostly removed from the offense now that Addison is back and can be viewed as a tourney dart throw at best.

At tight end, I’ve written several times already this year about how Carson Wentz has one of the highest TE target rates of any quarterback in the league going back for several years…except he hasn’t been targeting Hockenson at those rates. Is it Hockenson? Is it because he has two elite wideouts to throw to? Is it something else? I don’t know, but Hock did finally see 9 targets last week, his most of the year. I generally tend to trust years-long trends over just a few games, so I think if Wentz keeps starting for Minnesota that we’ll see some more games of 8+ targets for Hock, and $4,800 is just far too cheap if he ends up seeing that kind of volume. I’m in. TE2 Josh Oliver plays just under half the snaps and can be considered as a tourney punt option. I prefer Nailor to Oliver as he’s consistently earned more targets (25 for Nailor vs. just 7 for Oliver on the year).

LOS ANGELES

On the Chargers side of things, Kimani Vidal has seized the backfield with Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris both injured. Harris has played 67% and 64% of the backfield snaps since the injury, handling a total of 27 carries and 9 targets compared to just 7 carries and 3 targets for RB2 Hassan Haskins. Now Haskins is hurt and almost certain to miss, which would leave Nyhein Miller-Hines to pick up the rest of the backfield work. While for years the Vikings have been a defense that teams don’t run against, this year things have changed as they’re facing 28.3 rush attempts per game (the average is about 25-26). Vidal checks all the boxes: big role, solid passing game work, he’s a home favorite in a reasonable matchup…and he’s just $7k. This is just a misprice, and he looks to me like the strongest on-paper play on the slate. Miller-Hines is just $200 and will likely be put into a material RB2 role (similar to what Haskins was playing) and also looks mispriced. They’re even cheap enough that you can play them together – just watch for any news about who else the Chargers have on their active roster on Thursday, because it’s possible that whoever they call up might play ahead of Miller-Hines and could be considered as another deep tournament play. 

In the passing game, the Chargers are confusing. Ladd McConkey was amazing last year, and this year he’s been the least productive Los Angeles wideout, while elder statesman Keenan Allen is last of the main wide receiver trio in snaps but first in fantasy points per game. Let’s see if we can do some apples-to-apples comparisons and figure out who’s likely to do well going forward, not just who’s done well in the past. Ladd and Johnston are on the field the most, both with a route participation of around 90% while Allen is down at 76%. However, in target share, Allen leads with 24.3% versus 21.6% for Ladd and 20.4% for Johnston. Johnson is, of course, the perimeter/deep threat receiver, and he leads in aDOT at 12.4 yards, leading to a 36.2% share of the team’s air yards, while Allen and McConkey both have much shorter aDOTs of around 8 yards. Finally, Allen leads in red zone targets with 9, against 6 for Ladd and 5 for Johnston. Overall, Johnston’s role looks the most valuable – only slightly fewer targets, but much more valuable ones as they’re farther downfield. After that, it actually looks like Allen is next – he isn’t on the field quite as much, but he’s targeted at a meaningfully higher rate when he is on the field, so his outproducing of Ladd doesn’t look fluky. Finally, Ladd brings up the rear.

Given that these guys are all priced within $400 of each other (strange), it’s relevant to really dig in and try to understand the underlying metrics. I’d rank them in the order they’re priced in: 1) Johnston, 2) Allen, and 3) Ladd (we’ve been saying all season Johnston is the best bet of the trio, but I had thought Allen’s early season production was fluky, and it looks like it may not be). Now, in one game, anything can happen, and any of them are viable options, but my guess is their ownership ends up being fairly close, and so if ownership isn’t a determining factor, I’ll just go with whoever looks like the strongest play. WR4 Tre’ Harris is on the field enough to be considered in tournaments, but Nailor looks a bit stronger of a play on the other side with consistently more target volume.

At tight end, Oronde Gadsden has broken out in a big way. He went 7/68/0 in Week 6 on 8 targets, then a massive 7/164/1 on 9 targets last week. Along the way, he’s iced Los Angeles two veteran tight ends as Tyler Conklin and Will Dissly have all but disappeared from the offense. Conklin has played just 3 snaps in the last two games, while Dissly played 41% of the snaps two weeks ago and then 4% last week. Gadsden got to take advantage of two very soft matchups, while the Vikings D is a much tougher nut to crack, but he looks like a real part of the offense at this point. I’m guessing he’s still going to be behind the main wideout trio in targets as the Chargers offense has historically not targeted its tight ends at a high rate since Justin Herbert came to the NFL, but he’s certainly a playable option with a strong ceiling for his price. Dissly or Conklin may show up at some point, my guess is it’s Dissly, but I’m not totally certain on that – either of them would be thin tournament options at best. 

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

This game is chock full of attractive plays, and a lot of the skill position guys just seem mispriced. We have Jefferson at a very expensive $11.8k, and then the next skill position player is Jordan Mason, all the way down at $8.6k. I’m not sure what happened with pricing on this slate, but it looks incredibly soft, and that dynamic has a big impact on how rosters are going to look for this one. That’s a good thing because the value plays on this slate are rather thin, but it’s very possible to build rosters without having to dip very low into value territory. As such, I expect a lot of rosters will look similar – one of the 7-8k range guys at captain, both QBs, more of the midrange guys, and then one “cheap” guy still priced at least $3k or higher (say, from Oliver or Harris on up). I also think a lot of relatively inexpensive options will lead to higher than normal ownership on the QBs, and on Jefferson, because it’s easy to afford them (even if Jefferson is objectively a bit overpriced, he still carries the highest raw projection of any skill position player). Our job is to figure out how to build smart rosters that are differentiated from the field, and I’d look to do so by targeting lower owned captains or by leaving salary on the table (say, build a roster with the mid-7k guys and then drop one down to Hockenson, Gadsden, or a kicker and leave a couple K in salary). 

CASH GAMES

In cash games, I want the QBs, I definitely want Vidal, but I’m probably fine passing on the Vikings RBs, assuming Jones is back. I’d fill out my roster with the other 7-8k guys with Allen being a priority for me, given his high floor, and then kickers are of course always welcome in cash lineups with Nailor being my favorite cheap guy.

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, I’ll let ownership dictate my captain exposure from the mid-range guys, but in a vacuum, without ownership, I’d say Vidal, Addison, and Johnston are my favorite options. As for Jefferson, I’ll probably look to be overweight on him at the captain spot but underweight in the flex – my thinking here is that if he has a huge game, he probably is the optimal captain, but given his extreme price, it’s tougher for him to be optimal only as a flex play. 

Some groups to consider ::

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 1 of Mason and Jones

• At most 1 of Naylor and Thielen

• At most 1 of Conklin and Dissly