TNF Showdown Week 7: Bengals at Steelers

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 7 begins with the Steelers at Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a 43.5 total game with Pittsburgh favored by 5.5. The Bengals have ditched Jake Browning and brought in Joe Flacco, who wasn’t exactly elite last week but did keep them competitive against a very good Packers team. The Steelers definitely deserve to be the favorites here, but the Bengals didn’t exactly look awful last week, and it wouldn’t be a huge shocker to see them put up a fight in this one. 

Cincinnati

On the Cincinnati side, poor Chase Brown has been the victim of awful game scripts ever since Joe Burrow got hurt. In the last four weeks, he’s seen 10, 10, 8, and 9 carries as the Bengals have been playing from behind every game. He has seen 18 targets in those four games, keeping his floor intact, and his role is still excellent as he’s seen 72% of the team’s running back opportunities, but in order to find a ceiling, he’s almost certainly going to need to score a touchdown, which is something that’s eluded him since Week 1. The Steelers defense started the year poorly, allowing over 30 points in back-to-back games (including against the Jets), but has since played much better against the Patriots, Vikings, and Browns. Not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses, but neither are the Bengals. About the biggest positive for Brown is that his price has been sinking, and at $8k, he’s cheap enough that his role keeps him in consideration. RB2 Samaje Perine at $4,400 is too expensive for me. I’d want to see him down in the $2-$3k range for him to be attractive. He’ll be in my player pool, but I’m not going out of my way to play him even though I normally like being overweight on RB2s in Showdown.

In the passing game, Joe Flacco brings inefficiency, but he also brings volume, having attempted 45 passes last week (as well as twice in four games with the Browns earlier this year). Flacco’s going to chuck it, and he doesn’t really throw deep much anymore, which can let his receivers rack up PPR points via easy completions. Ja’Marr Chase saw 12 targets last week, leading the team, and caught 10 of them. He’s $12,000, and that’s a tough price to pay with a backup QB, but given Chase’s ability to score from anywhere and the massive volume we can project for him, he still seems firmly in play to me. WR2 Tee Higgins saw 8 targets, and at $10k, he’s a tougher sell to me. Higgins is also a very good receiver, but he doesn’t have Chase’s ability to take a slant to the house from anywhere on the field, and he projects for a smaller target share. I do, however, expect him to come in at the lowest ownership of any of the plays priced in the $10k range, giving him some contrarian appeal in tournaments. WR3 Andrei Iosivas is not a good NFL player, having caught just 8 of 17 targets this year despite an 10.5 yard aDOT (normally we expect to see guys with deep aDOTs have such low catch rates). He’s a value option but not an appealing one.

What we did see last week was some rotation at tight end as Mike Gesicki got hurt early and Drew Sample (who is mostly a blocker) played his fewest snaps of the year, leading to increased work for Noah Fant and then Tanner Hudson, who is also a capable pass catcher, played meaningful snaps for the first time this season. The tight ends as a whole saw a whopping 11 targets with 2 for Sample, 4 for Fant, and 5 for Hudson. Hudson is also in the concussion protocol and is almost certain to miss, while Gesicki is already ruled out, which should leave the Bengals with Sample, Fant, and then probably Cam Grandy as the TE3. This could lead Fant to play a lot of snaps as the main pass catching tight end, and we know he’s a capable receiver (he’s also caught 16 of 18 passes on the season), and at just $3,600, he would be underpriced if he plays as the primary tight end. We also know that Flacco loves his tight ends. In the four games he started for the Browns, Harold Fannin saw 24 targets and David Njoku saw 25 – that’s 49 tight end targets out of 160 Browns pass attempts, or a 30.6% tight end target rate – one of the highest in the league. Sample and Grandy would be playable as dart throws, but Fant’s the guy who I’d really be drawn to. 

PITTSBURGH

On the Steelers side of things, Jaylen Warren returned from injury last week and went back to his relatively modest role with a 53% snap share, handling just 13 touches despite a favorable game script in which Pittsburgh led the whole way. RB2 Kenneth Gainwell played 34% of the snaps and saw 12 touches (including 6 targets!) while rookie Kaleb Johnson has finally started to see the field, playing modest snaps and handling 6 carries in each of the past two games. 3-way backfields suck for fantasy purposes, but the matchup is extremely favorable against a Bengals defense that has bled production to opposing running backs. They’re a bit below average in opposing per-carry metrics, and then, due to playing from behind almost every game, they’re putting enemy running backs into favorable game scripts just about every time. Warren is a talented player, but the volume is a concern as he’s seen 13, 18, 24, and 13 opportunities this season. 18 and 24 are fine numbers at his $8,400 price, but if he gets 13 again, you’d be unhappy having played him at that price. I do think he has a ceiling here, and one thing to note is these two teams rank 28th and 32nd in time of possession – there are about six and a half minutes of “missing” possession time between them, which means extra play volume, which likely means extra running back opportunities. Given Warren’s talent and the excellent matchup, I’m willing to take the play volume risk here and will be using a lot of him. Gainwell is $6,400, making him a very difficult RB2 to play, but his robust passing game role of 4+ targets in three of four games playing alongside Warren secures his floor. He’s ok, but you need a touchdown, and at $6,400, he’s pretty spendy for what is essentially a touchdown-or-bust play. I generally want my plays in that price range to have paths to success without finding the end zone. Johnson at $2,400 is equally risky because he has no passing game role and thus absolutely needs a touchdown, but he’s at least cheap enough to fit into the dart throw category. 

In the passing game, Calvin Austin has yet to resume practicing, which makes it seem unlikely that he will make it back this week. That leaves DK Metcalf in the unquestioned WR1 role with some combination of Scotty Miller, Roman Wilson, and Ben Skowronek playing behind him. Fun stat from last week: normally, we see teams’ wide receiver snaps add up to over 200% of the total team snaps (which means the vast majority of teams have at least two wide receivers on the field for every play and then often have three). Last week, the Steelers had a combined wide receiver snap share of just 171%, meaning they often only had one wideout on the field, and then they had one of the highest rates of 12 personnel (two tight ends) I’ve ever seen in a game log. That could be because the Browns have a very good pass rush and they wanted extra blockers, or it could be because they just don’t trust their other wideouts, which given the list of names above, seems more likely to me. Out of 30 Rodgers dropbacks, all of the non-Metcalf wideouts combined for a whopping 1 target (it went to Wilson), with Miller and Skowronek seeing no passing game work. Metcalf looks like a solid option, as while his full-season metrics of just a 23.3% target share and 27.8% air yards share look weak, he was at 30% last week with Austin out. Of note, however, is that Metcalf’s aDOT is just 6.4 yards this year – he’s being used very differently in this offense compared to how he was used in Seattle. His fantasy production has been buoyed by scoring touchdowns in four of five games and/or some big YAC plays, and the Bengals D is built to prevent plays by opposing pass catchers. The matchup isn’t exactly bad for Metcalf as the Bengals D is hardly “good,” but they’re more vulnerable on the ground and to opponents marching down the field steadily, while the Steelers have been happy to be a low volume passing attack, with just 27.6 pass attempts per game. Metcalf needs a touchdown and probably more to pay off here. Realistically, his best path to success is for the Bengals to put up a fight and push the Steelers into more pass attempts, and thus, he fits best on rosters that pair him with a top Cincinnati option like Chase, Higgins, or Brown. The other Pittsburgh wide receivers all look like pure punt options to me: Miller has 1 target on the season, Wilson has 3, Skowronek has 2. Whee. If you want to play these guys, I’d lean Miller first as he’s led the trio in snaps and routes run without Austin.

At tight end is where things get more fun for Pittsburgh. Pat Freiermuth appears to have largely vanished from this offense, seeing just 1 target last week despite all the heavy tight end play and with just 11 on the season. He’s playable, but he’s still priced at $3,000, which does not match his role so far this season. Jonnu Smith at $4,000 looks much more tempting. Jonnu is a very talented receiver and has led the position in snaps in three of his four healthy games, and in those four games, he’s caught 15 of 17 targets. He’s playing a short area role, but at his price, he can rack up some PPR points (i.e., unlike some other plays I’ve mentioned, he has a path to the optimal lineup without scoring a TD). He’s an excellent play. The other guy I’m interested in here is Darnell Washington, who is not exactly a brand name in the NFL and thus will probably have suppressed ownership, but has seen 3 and 5 targets in Pittsburgh’s last two games. At just $2,000, that’s not shabby at all. Connor Heyward is also playing a handful of tight end snaps and scored a touchdown last week, but is, overall, a very thin dart throw as he’s barely on the field. 

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

The way this game is likely to play out is a low-scoring affair with Pittsburgh gradually building a lead but being unlikely to completely run away with things. This game feels like it has a wide range of outcomes, though. Flacco kept the Bengals competitive against a great Packers team last week and had his best game of the season, and against Pittsburgh’s less-imposing defense could very well surprise us. On the other side of things, he’s still Joe Flacco and the Steelers defense has played much better after their first two games, racking up 17 sacks in their last three contests. Flacco is not exactly quick and could find himself under siege all game in the pocket. The Steelers defense is very much in play in this one (remember that we want a combination of pressure and a lot of opposing pass attempts to give our DST ceiling, and this game checks both of those boxes easily), and while I like 4-2 underdog Bengals builds here, I also like Steelers onslaughts. 

CASH GAMES

In cash games, I’d prioritize the QBs and Warren. Brown is fine, but given the relatively soft pricing (all three of those plays are under $10k), I’d try hard to get to Chase in cash instead of Brown. The kickers are always viable, but you can also use plays like Smith and Fant as solid, cheap value options to get to Chase.

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, my favorite captains are Chase, Warren, and Higgins at the high end, and I’ll also run some Fant and Smith captain rosters at the cheaper end.

Some groups to consider ::

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 1 of Miller, Wilson, and Skowronek

• At most 2 of Smith, Washington, Freiermuth, and Heyward

• At most 1 of Gainwell and Johnson