TNF Showdown Week 3: Dolphins at Bills

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 Now, let’s dive into today’s feature from the Daily Dose…

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

It’s already Week 3, and this season is flying by. We start off the week with the Dolphins visiting the Bills for a big 49.5 total game in which Buffalo is favored by 11.5 or 12.5, depending on where you look. The Dolphins defense has looked pretty atrocious to start the season, while the Bills have scored 30 and 41 points in their first two games, which is driving the high total in this one.

BUFFALO

We’ll start with the Bills, where James Cook has had a red-hot start to the season, scoring 3 touchdowns and racking up 176 rushing yards and a 6/61 line through the air. Not bad for two games. What’s more important is what while Cook’s snap counts are still modest (keep in mind the Bills pulled their starters last game as they blow out the Jets), his share of rushing work is excellent - he saw 13 of 16 RB carries in Week 1 and 21 of 32 in Week 2 (and keep in mind that Week 2 had some garbage time in which Ray Davis got some extra carries). The knock against Cook has always been a combination of volume and Josh Allen vulturing touchdowns. Those concerns are still valid (Josh Allen has 5 carries inside the 5-yard line compared to just three for Cook), but Cook getting to 21 carries in an easy win would be awfully nice for his value if it turns out to be a trend. Will it? I don’t know - given what we’ve seen from Buffalo for years, I’d bet against it - but I could be wrong.

What we do know is that Cook’s ceiling is excellent, even with modest volume, because of how good an offense Buffalo has. We know the matchup is excellent against a mediocre Dolphins D (their strength is their line but “strength” is just in comparative terms, as so far they have not been very good against the run). Behind Cook, Ty Johnson has been in a very modest role to start the season with just 7 touches in two games, but I expect better things are coming for him, and he’s a viable punt play (with no real floor). Ray Davis is unlikely to see much work unless the game blows out, but with the Bills being huge home favorites, he deserves to be in onslaught player pools. Otherwise, you’re just hoping for a lucky TD.

In the passing game, the Bills are the absolute worst. One week after Keon Coleman played 88% of the snaps and looked like he might be the new WR1, he only played 51% of the snaps (again, everyone played fewer than normal, but no WR going over 51% is more like the Bills of old, with them spreading things around from the start). Look, when it comes to Bills pass catchers, your guess is really as good as mine. Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Josh Palmer should be the main guys, but Elijah Moore and Tyrell Shavers are going to play more than anyone (including Bills fans) wants to see. Coleman’s the best bet here as a talented second-year receiver who is leading the team in targets so far, performed well in Week 1, and could well take a step forward this season, but “best” is still fairly fragile. At just $6,800, he’s a risk worth taking in my opinion.

Shakir is fine - his per-target upside is modest, so he usually needs volume or a score to pay off - he’s better in builds based around competitive games, and there isn’t really anything that makes him stand out to me beyond just being attached to a good offense. Palmer is interesting as he’s priced around the kickers and won’t project especially well (that price range is often a wasteland for skill position players; they get lost among the kickers and their ownership is low), but he’s somewhat quietly second on the team in targets while also leading in yards per reception. Good volume plus deep targets = boom potential once things connect, and this Miami secondary is pretty darn bad. Moore and Shavers should be in player pools, but both are thin.

At tight end, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are still splitting time (somewhat inexplicably) with Knox, oddly, leading the way. They’re basically just eating each other’s ceiling. Kincaid has 10 targets to Knox’s 7 and is also a much better pass catcher. He’s clearly the stronger play of the two, but Knox is cheap enough to be a viable punt, as he’s in the “if he catches 1 or 2 passes and finds the end zone, he’ll probably be optimal” price range. TE3 Jackson Hawes isn’t likely to play a ton in a competitive game, but he’s caught a pass in both games, he’s $600, and thus he can also be viewed as a punt. 

Eight viable pass catchers, not including running backs? Cool, thanks, Buffalo. Maybe just play your best players more. My overall favorites in order are Coleman, Palmer, and Kincaid, with the rest just being guys I’d mix and match into builds.

MIAMI

On the Dolphins side of things, they expect to get Jaylen Wright back to take the RB2 role from Ollie Gordon. Gordon only had 5 touches, but there is some suspicion among some analysts that Wright returning, plus Malik Washington being banged up, could lead to them lining up De’Von Achane more out wide. That doesn’t really hurt Achane’s projection (in fact, it probably helps it), but it does make Wright a potentially viable RB2 play. He’s a road underdog who won’t get much passing game work, so he’s extremely fragile, but RB2s in Showdown are generally +EV plays at “normal” RB2 ownership and I suspect Wright might A) come in below that due to the Q tag and B) he might play a bit more than normal if they do indeed have Achane lined up as a receiver.

It’s worth noting that over the course of a season, we will frequently hear of teams planning to have two running backs on the field at the same time with one lined up as a receiver and that this rarely actually comes to pass, but the places I’m seeing it talked about are generally sharp folks so maybe there’s something to it this time. It is, at least, an interesting, if high-risk, play to lean more into Wright. Fullback Alec Ingold also deserves a mention here as a punt play, as he has 2 targets in each game so far, and he’s in the “if he scores a touchdown” price range. Side note: Achane actually leads the Dolphins in targets already. He’s awesome.

In the passing game, the Dolphins have been only slightly less obnoxious than Buffalo in terms of concentration. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the two primary guys here, but they’ve only seen 13 and 11 targets, respectively, on 66 Tua Tagovailoa dropbacks. Those are not exactly awesome target shares for your two main receivers, and in fact, represent one of the lowest marks of any top-2 pass catcher pairing in the league. Neat, Miami. They’re better than Buffalo at having their best players on the field, but they’ve been pretty bad so far at actually getting them the ball. They’re priced fairly closely based on fantasy production, but I prefer Hill by a mile and a half because he can do far more on a per-target basis than Waddle. Waddle needs more volume to hit, and so far he hasn’t really seen it with Hill and Achane healthy, while Tyreek can find a ceiling on just a handful of targets since he can score from anywhere.

As mentioned before, WR3 Malik Washington is a little banged up. Looks like he’s going to play, but he could be a bit limited, which could potentially open up more opportunity for Achane, or we could see Nickeil Westbrook-Ikhine take on some extra work. This slate is full of cheap (and risky) plays, but Westbrook-Ikhine is one who could feasibly see an increase to his role if things break his way. You aren’t just hoping for 1 catch and a score with him, so he’s one of my favorites of the dart throws. WR5 Dee Eskridge is more of a pure punt option.

At tight end, Julian Hill and Tanner Conner have been splitting the snaps, leading to a receiving line of 0/0/0 on 0 targets for Hill and 2/20/0 on 4 targets for Conner. I think they miss Jonnu Smith in Miami, because these two tight ends are just not very involved in the offense so far. Meh. They’re punts, and you can play them, but personally, I think they’re two of the weaker punts on the slate.

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

The way this game is likeliest to go is for the Bills to wreck Miami. So far, Miami has lost by 25 points on the road to Indy and then lost by 6 at home to a not-very-good Patriots team. The Bills should handle them easily. But look, football is weird, upsets happen. You can certainly bet on the Dolphins to play better than expected, but also given the concentration of the offense on Miami’s side, I expect the field is largely going to already be betting that way with the way they build rosters. We’ll almost certainly see a lot more ownership on Hill and Waddle than we do on any Buffalo pass catcher. Another interesting way to play this is Bills onslaughts - 5-1 onslaught builds don’t win THAT often, but they do tend to win at a higher rate than the field plays them, and when we have a team that’s very spread out like Buffalo, it can be uncomfortable to put together onslaught builds because we feel like we don’t know where the ball is going whereas we have more confidence in that on the Miami side. Embrace the discomfort, I say.

CASH GAMES

In cash games, I want the QBs and RBs, and oh crap, I’m out of salary already. Of the four, I’d be most comfortable leaving off Tua, or you could try using a cheaper option as your captain to get all four expensive plays in. Of the cheap plays, for price-considered floor, I’d probably lean to Knox or Johnson, I guess, but none feel great. 

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, I think Achane and Hill are likely to be owned at about the right levels as captains - and they’re solid captain choices. But, the guys I want to make sure I’m overweight on are the Bills skill position players: Cook, Coleman, Palmer, Kincaid, and even Shakir. I don’t think it will be hard to be overweight on these guys, and it’s a very +EV move.

SOME GROUPS TO CONSIDER

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing - discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 3 total Bills pass catchers

• At most 1 of Moore and Shavers

• At most 1 of Shavers and Hawes

• At most 1 of Davis and Johnson

• At most 1 of Wright and Gordon

• At most 1 of Westbrook-Ikhine and Eskridge

• At most 1 of Hill and Conner

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