TNF Showdown Week 2: Commanders at Packers

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Now, let’s dive into today’s feature from the Daily Dose…

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 begins with the Commanders visiting the Packers for a game with a 48-point total and Green Bay favored by 3.5. Both teams are coming off dominating Week 1 wins. The Commanders beat the Giants 21-6 while the Packers crushed the Lions 27-13. Of those, the latter is more impressive given that the Lions are an elite offense while the Giants are…well…not. It’s important to remember in Week 2 that we probably know less than we did even in Week 1, because now we have single data points to overreact to. How a team approaches one game, especially one in which they’ve had months to plan, is not necessarily how they will approach every game. Just remember that one game does not tell us all that much, and we need to continue to embrace volatility until we get further into the season and know who these teams are. 

Washington

The Commanders backfield in Week 1 started with Austin Ekeler at the beginning of the game, as he played 47% of the total snaps and handled six carries while seeing three targets. Four of Ekeler’s carries came in the first quarter, and then they seemed to move away from him. Worth noting here is that Ekeler was listed as limited on Monday with a shoulder issue, so it’s possible this popped up during the game and led to his workload being scaled back, or it’s possible the Commanders gave him the start as a nod of respect to the veteran before splitting things how they intended all along.

Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (also known as “Bill” for some reason – and since that’s much briefer, that’s what we’ll call him) handled 10 carries and ran for 82 yards and a score, while Jeremy McNichols had four carries. There’s a lot of rushing in this Commanders offense as Jayden Daniels also rushed 11 times while Deebo Samuel got a carry (and a score) as well. That makes it a bit tricky to trust any running back here, and with Bill now at $7k, he’s a bit overpriced if you think he’s playing 35-40% of the snaps and getting 10 touches with no passing game involvement. Again, it’s only one week of data, so don’t read too much into it, but based on that week, I’m a little gunshy of this Commanders backfield. It’s tough to imagine anyone getting 15+ touches, let alone 20. The matchup is tough as a road underdog, and you have to worry about having touchdowns vultured by both Daniels and Deebo. I’ll have some exposure here in MME, but not a lot. 

In the passing game, Deebo and Terry McLaurin led the way with 77% and 79% of the snaps, respectively. I was a bit surprised to see McLaurin play that much, given that he had very few reps in training camp due to an ankle injury and a contract dispute, but while he was out there plenty, he wasn’t that involved. I’d expect his involvement to ramp up this week, though if you ask me to guess, I’d guess Deebo is still a slight favorite to lead the team in targets. Last week, Deebo had 10 targets while McLaurin had four, and while this gap should close, I don’t think it’s going to completely close in a single week. Both of these guys are interesting at reasonable prices of $8,600 for Deebo and $9k for McLaurin, with a slight preference to Deebo for me (I like WRs who also get carries!).

Last week, we saw all of Noah Brown, Jaylin Lane, Chris Moore, and even Luke McCaffrey get wide snaps behind the two main guys, with Brown leading the way. Brown also missed time in training camp, so it’s possible his role could grow as he gets healthier. I think he has the most upside of this group, and at just $3,200, he’s worth playing in some lineups. He’s also historically been much better against zone defenses, which the Packers played at a league-high rate last week and will likely do again to help limit Daniels’ rushing ability. Moore and Lane can be sprinkled in tournaments, while McCaffrey is a very thin dart throw who only played five snaps last week and could vanish entirely in any given game. 

At tight end, Zach Ertz played a respectable-but-not-awesome 64% of the snaps, though he managed to be second on the team in targets and scored their only passing touchdown, while John Bates played 53% of the snaps without a target. Ertz is aging and no longer has the same kind of explosiveness we’ve seen from him in the past, but he’s still a capable pass catcher. At $5,800, he’s a little on the expensive side for his likeliest range of outcomes and will be one of those “he’s in my player pool but not a guy I’m trying to push a lot of exposure of” plays, while Bates at $600 is a thin dart throw (Bates saw just 13 targets last season in 17 games). 

Green Bay

On the Packers side, Josh Jacobs played on 42 of 47 offensive snaps last week. Now that’s a bell cow role. He handled 19 carries and had a target in the Packers dismantling of the Lions. We saw this last year as well, and while I am not the biggest Jacobs fan, the role is enormous as one of the few true bell cow backs in the league. He’s an extremely robust play, though expensive. I prefer the QBs priced right next to him, but Jacobs does have one of the highest ceilings on the slate and he’s not someone I want to fade entirely. Chris Brooks and Emmanuel Wilson are afterthoughts who you can play just hoping for a lucky touchdown, but are unlikely to see much more than a touch or three. 

In the passing game, the Packers can be infuriating with their deployment of pass catchers. A whopping 10 different Packers caught a pass last week, with no one player seeing more than five targets on just 22 Love dropbacks. Oh, and the guy who saw five targets was Jayden Reed, who played only 18 offensive snaps (fourth among WRs). If we look at playing time via snaps, it was:

• Romeo Doubs – leading the way with 34 snaps

• Matthew Golden – 23 

• Dontayvion Wicks – 22

• Jayden Reed – 18

• Malik Heath – 11

• Savion Williams – 3

Yeesh. Doubs is the guy who nobody seems to respect on the Packers, but he’s their most consistently involved wideout (I fall victim to this too at times, as he’s just not as talented as some of their other guys, but playing time wins out). At just $4k, he looks like a huge misprice – he’s not as talented as Reed or Golden (or probably even Wicks), but he’s on the field the most and that leads to opportunity. Expect him to be owned, but depending on how projection systems are allocating workload, he may not be owned enough. At his ridiculous price, he’s the best skill-position play on the Packers (and probably on the slate!).

Reed is talented but a part-time player and the Packers are likely to keep him that way, both because of how they deploy him (we saw this consistently last year, which was extremely frustrating) and also because he’s been working his way back from a training camp injury. Reed is listed questionable (as is Wicks), but nothing so far has indicated they’re in any danger of missing the game, as both were listed limited in Tuesday’s walkthrough.

Rookie Matthew Golden had a modest role in his debut, but he caught both targets. Golden was Green Bay’s first round draft pick this summer and is likely to be good, but it will probably take him some time to be worked in. Wicks is a good player when given opportunity, but sub-50% snap rate guys are tough to have a ton of confidence in, while Heath and Williams are just pure dart throws and thin ones at that. I want to play a ton of Doubs, then the order for me goes Golden, Reed, Wicks. Just recognize there’s a ton of volatility in this wide receiver corps from game to game. 

At tight end, Tucker Kraft played a huge role with 44 offensive snaps (almost every snap in the game!). He and Doubs are the safest pass catching options. Kraft doesn’t get a ton of credibility in the DFS community but he’s been quietly quite good for a while now and it seems silly that he’s priced cheaper than Ertz. He’s another of my favorite plays. Behind him, Luke Musgrave and John Fitzpatrick will both see the field a fair bit, with Musgrave being a talented pass catcher but like the Green Bay wide receivers, he’s is also kind of buried on the depth chart, and Fitzpatrick is mostly a blocker. Again, this is a volatile spot, and if you’re building with an optimizer, you’ll want to use group rules to manage your exposures here, both in terms of total number as well as guys who are directly competing for snaps.

Strategy Outlook

The way this game is likeliest to play out is a fairly high-scoring affair. The Packers D absolutely clamped down on the Lions last week, but the Lions offense has shown some vulnerability to zone-heavy teams before, while the Commanders have been much better against zone defenses since Jayden Daniels joined the team. Green Bay’s defense is no joke and might be a top-five overall unit this season, though, so it’s worth considering Packers onslaughts, as I expect they will be fairly low owned and their defense is a play I want to be overweight on regardless of my overall build. I want to be early here before most people recognize just how good this defense is. 

Cash Games

In cash games, I want the quarterbacks, Doubs, and I’d love to get Jacobs if I can find a way to, but would be ok with paying down to Deebo instead; and then of course, kickers are always viable. If wanting to dip down cheaper than Doubs, Brown or Wicks would be my favorite other cheap options. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, my clearest overweight spots are going to be on Deebo, Doubs, Jacobs, and Kraft. 

Some groups to consider ::

• At most two kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most one of Wicks, Heath, and Williams

• At most one of Musgrave and Fitzpatrick

• At most two of Reed, Wicks, Heath, Williams, Musgrave, and Fitzpatrick

• At most three Packers pass catchers total

• At most one of Brooks and Wilson 

• At most one of Ekeler and Croskey-Merritt (at their prices it’s very difficult to see both hitting)

• At most one of Brown, Lane, and Moore