TNF Showdown Week 11: Jets at Patriots

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 11 kicks off with the Jets visiting the Patriots for a 43.5 total game in which New England is favored by a massive 13.5 points. This feels not unreasonable, frankly, as the Patriots are 8-2 with Drake Maye playing at a near-MVP level, while the Jets are 2-7, just traded two defensive starters, and now Garrett Wilson is hurt again. Oh, and the Jets haven’t named their starting quarterback. Yikes.

NEW ENGLAND

On the Pats side, Rhamondre Stevenson returned to practice this week and is currently listed as questionable, which would throw the backfield into some confusion if he plays. It’s unclear if he will. Terell Jennings is also questionable, and the Pats signed Jonathan Ward to their practice squad, which seems to imply that at least one of these guys misses. TreVeyon Henderson has played incredibly well in Rhamondre’s absence, racking up over 200 scrimmage yards in the last two weeks despite tough matchups while playing 75% and 84% of the offensive snaps, which are the top two most snaps played by any Patriots RB this season. He’s clearly built some trust, and he’s clearly better than Rhamondre, so it seems likely to me that even if Stevenson returns, he takes a back seat to Henderson at this point in the season. But that could be wrong, as Rhamondre has been pretty bad all year, and the Pats still left him in the lead back role until he got hurt. And even if it’s right, Rhamondre could still soak up more RB2 work than Jennings has in the last couple of weeks. If Rhamondre is out, Henderson looks like a total smash play as a huge home favorite who also has some passing game chops. If Rhamondre is in, Henderson is still viable, just riskier. Rhamondre himself is basically unplayable as anything except a highly contrarian GPP dart throw (unless we get some word from beat reporters that gives us clarity as to his role), while Jennings would be playable as an RB2 if he’s active and Rhamondre is out.

In the passing game, Drake Maye has been incredible, but it’s been tough to predict who he brings along with him in a given game. Maye will be the highest owned player in this one, and he deserves to be, but then things get tricky. Stef Diggs is still highly talented, but he’s priced at $9,800, like a WR1 despite only running a route on 71% of Maye’s dropbacks and has just a 22% target share, far below where most ~$10k WRs in Showdown land. Kayshon Boutte returned to a limited practice, and if he plays, it throws more chaos into the Pats WR situation. Boutte is also talented and has 5 touchdowns on the season, but just a 12.5% target share. At $8k, that’s a tough spot to play. Mack Hollins is playing a ton of snaps but has generally not been a major target earner in his NFL career, though in the Pats last three games, he has target counts of 7, 2, and 10; but, in their first seven games, he was averaging exactly 2 targets per game before this surge. Demario Douglas had a huge game in Week 9 with a 4/100/1 line, but on just 24% of the snaps, and then he predictably disappeared again last week with 2 targets. Kyle Williams saw his snaps surge last week to a season-high 56% and caught a 72-yard touchdown, but on just 2 targets. This group has a near-Bills-like level of unpredictability. How I see it is that Diggs is the safest option, and while he’s overpriced, he’s at least consistently earning targets while on the field. My next favorite is probably Hollins, as he has a solid combination of volume and price. Boutte and Douglas are both significantly overpriced, while Williams is playable as a dart throw.

At tight end, Hunter Henry started off the season pretty hot but hasn’t reached double-digit DK points since all the way back in Week 4. There are just so many other pass catchers available on this offense! Since his huge Week 3 against the Steelers, Henry is averaging only about 4 targets per game, but at least the price is solid. At $5,400, he’s priced around Hollins, and I would lean Henry over Hollins (especially with TE2 Austin Hooper almost certain to miss with a concussion). Jack Westover will take over TE2 duties, but he’s been a blocker so far and doesn’t have a target yet on the year – he’s a desperation punt. This pass catching corps is hard to figure out, and it’s not helped by the fact that the Pats have been averaging under 30 pass attempts per game. Diggs, Henry, and then Hollins are my favorites overall (though Hollins loses the most if Boutte returns, I think), while everyone else is in dart-throw territory.

NEW YORK

On the Jets side, oh boy. After wanting a trade and not getting it, Breece Hall went out and played very well against Cleveland last week, racking up 125 scrimmage yards and a receiving score on 22 touches. He also played 71% of the snaps, his second highest total of the season. In case anyone thought he might have given up, or that the team might punish him for the trade chatter, that didn’t happen. Working for Hall is that he’s the clear engine of the offense without Garrett Wilson, and he has a strong passing game role. Working against him is that the Pats run D is outstanding, and that he’s on the Jets. If Rhamondre is out, I prefer Henderson to Hall, but if Rhamondre is in, there’s a case to be made for Hall’s role being more secure. It’s a scary click, but a bell cow RB is one of the safer spots on a road underdog like this. RB2 Isaiah Davis has some appeal here at $4,200 as he has games of 4, 4, and 5 targets on the year, and it’s possible he could see more work if the Jets get dusted. 

In the passing game, without Garrett Wilson…good luck, Jets. Last week, the other wide receivers to see the field were Arian Smith, Tyler Johnson, Isaiah Williams, and John Metchie, though it’s possible Allen Lazard could be active with Wilson out. If Justin Fields is the starting quarterback, it’s tough to get excited about anybody here, as Fields has only topped 30 pass attempts twice on the season while having games of 11, 11, and 17 attempts in full games. It would be much better for this receiving corps if Tyrod Taylor were the starter, though, despite New York not naming a starter yet, it would be tough for me to see him turning to Tyrod given that they have two consecutive wins with Fields starting. My guess is that Fields starts but is at a very real risk of in-game benching, making it tough to play either of these guys (keep in mind, even if Fields gets benched, it needs to happen early enough for Tyrod to rack up enough pass attempts and points in order to have a chance at finding an optimal lineup performance). Arian Smith is second among the wideouts in snaps played on the season, but has just 10 total targets to show for it. Tyler Johnson has also played a lot all season long and has 14 total targets. Williams has only played the last two games and has 5 targets. Metchie only played 8 offensive snaps last week despite the injury to Wilson. This group is even rougher than the Patriots to try and figure out. Unless we get news of Tyrod starting, I don’t really want to play any of these guys, but they are all extremely cheap (Johnson’s the most expensive and he’s only $3,400). Gun to my head, I’d rank them as Johnson, Williams, Smith, and Metchie.

At tight end is where I’d have more interest in this passing corps, as the Pats have had soft TE coverage all year (Cade Otton just went 9/82 against them last week on 12 targets, which was second on the team). Taylor was a trendy DFS tight end a few weeks ago, but then disappointed because, of course, he’s a Jet, but then he went 5/34/1 against the Bengals in Week 8, showing he’s still a significant part of this offense. Taylor is actually second on the team in target share when on the field behind the absent Wilson. Wilson being out, plus the matchup against New England, make him a strong bet to lead the team in targets this week. At just $4,000, he’s my favorite Jet by a wide margin. TE2 Jeremy Ruckert has been mostly a blocker, but is viable as a punt option, and at just $600 in one of the best possible tight end matchups, he’s a better play to me than Metchie. 

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

The way this is likeliest to go is for the Jets to be embarrassed. They’re the much worse team, and they don’t match up well with the Pats at all. I would be shocked if New England didn’t manage to put up points in this one, and I would be almost as shocked if the Jets can keep up, but football is weird, so building some Jets-heavier rosters makes sense as a contrarian play. Of course, New England onslaughts are in play here (and my favorite Jets on those builds are Hall and Taylor). 

CASH GAMES

In cash games, I’d want to go very Patriots heavy with Maye and Henderson being the key plays, and then Hall, if you can get to him, is a nice third major piece. Taylor is my overall favorite and safest Jet in cash, and I’d even consider the New England defense in cash games, which is something I rarely do.

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, my favorite captains are Henderson, Maye, and Taylor in that order, and then I’ll try to take a few swings on Hall and the Patriots pass-catcher roulette wheel. 

Some groups to consider

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 1 Jets wide receiver (if Fields is starting, I am highly likely to use this rule; if Tyrod is starting, I’ll probably limit it to 2 Jets pass catchers and add Taylor/Ruckert to this rule)

• At most 1 of Hall and Davis

• At most 1 of any non-Henderson running back on the Pats

• At most 1 of Douglas and Williams

• For a general overview of Xandamere’s Showdown rules, refer here.