TNF Showdown Week 10: Raiders at Broncos

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 10 begins with the Raiders taking on the Broncos in a 42.5 total game with Denver favored by 10. We’re fresh off the trade deadline, and Las Vegas traded away Jakobi Meyers, while the Broncos stood pat. The Raiders are, obviously, a bad team and deserve their major underdog status on the road at altitude against a better team and having just essentially signaled that they’re punting on the rest of their season (at 2-6, this should surprise nobody). Let’s dig in.

DENVER

On the Denver side, the backfield looks like a split with RB1 J.K. Dobbins hanging out around the 50% snap share mark most weeks, while RJ Harvey is around 25-30% and Tyler Badie is in the 20% range. Dobbins is getting the bulk of the touches, but he has only reached the 20 opportunity mark once, averaging 15 carries and about 1.5 targets per game. Harvey’s workload has bounced around significantly, with carry counts ranging from 2 to 14 and target counts from 1 to 5. There’s more volatility in his range of touches, whereas Dobbins has tended to stay pretty steady, indicating that perhaps Dobbins is on something of a firmer touch count while Harvey picks up what’s left. Harvey also had 19 touches in Week 4’s blowout win against the Bengals, indicating that perhaps he has more upside in Broncos onslaught builds. Badie only really gets targets with just 2 carries on the year and 17 targets –  he’ll almost certainly need to catch a touchdown to be relevant, and he has yet to see a red zone target, so he’s a tough sell. Dobbins doesn’t have the kind of workload we normally look for, but at $8,600, he’s priced for his role, and he has a good matchup as a large home favorite; his floor is low with little passing game work and modest workload, but he’s a very viable tournament option. Harvey is interesting as he has some explosiveness with the ball in his hands, he’s caught 4 TDs on the year, and he has upside in blowout scenarios. At $5,600, he’s pricier than I normally want in an RB2, but he has multiple paths to ceiling outcomes, and I think the price may well keep his ownership subdued, which would make him a compelling if risky tournament option. 

In the passing game, the big question is whether Marvin Mims will return from his concussion that he experienced in Week 8. Mims returned to practice on Tuesday, which gives him a shot, but he still has to get through the protocol in order to be cleared. Mims has not exactly been playing a ton of snaps, but his absence in Week 9 resulted in Troy Franklin playing his 2nd-most snaps of the season and seeing a season-high 10 targets. We’ll start there: Franklin is an exciting young player who has delivered a couple of fantastic performances already this season while on main slates. He’s not quite a “breakout” because outside of those two “booms” he’s busted and only reached double-digit DK points one other time, but he’s talented and he’s had games of 8 and 10 targets in Weeks 8 and 7, respectively, and that’s with Mims playing (Although the Week 7 game was a shootout in which Bo Nix threw a season-high 50 times). Also worth noting is that Franklin is the team’s primary red zone weapon by a WIDE margin, with 12 targets, while the next highest only has 6 (Courtland Sutton). The point is, Franklin is a reasonable play if Mims is in, and he becomes a really strong option if Mims sits.

Next, we have the WR1 of the offense, Sutton, who has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in fantasy this season, with 10+ DK points in all but two games and 16+ in 5/9. Given that he’s had a few really tough matchups, that level of consistency is impressive. As their prices creep closer, I definitely prefer Sutton over Franklin, if Mims is active, and still slightly lean Sutton’s way if Mims sits out (but it’s closer). If Mims plays, he’s a highly volatile boom/bust option as always. The matchup here is solid with some risk that Denver won’t need to throw much (but let’s also note Mims had his best game of the season when the Broncos curb-stomped the Bengals 28-3 – players with his profile can find ceilings on limited volume). One guy I want to mention, however, is Pat Bryant. Bryant has been playing around 50% of the snaps the last five weeks, and that looks to be independent of Mims. In the last four weeks, he has target counts of 2, 4, 4, and 3, and he’s scored a touchdown; he’s a fairly talented rookie. He’s not an elite option (an aDOT of just 7.3 yards holds back his upside), but he’s starting to show an ability to earn targets and be trusted in this offense (he’s been the first read on just over half of his targets, which is something we want to see for a rookie – they’re purposefully involving him). He even has 3 red zone targets already. At $3,200, I’m very interested in him as a value play and think that he’s likely to come in at sub-10% ownership if Mims is active. I worry about him getting steamed a bit if Mims misses, but we’ll just have to see what ownership projections say. To be clear, I think Mims is the overall better and higher ceiling play – but at sub-10% ownership, I’m interested in being overweight on Bryant.

At tight end, the Broncos are using Adam Trautman far too much for my taste (really just for fantasy purposes, that is. Trautman’s a blocker who doesn’t do much for fantasy). Evan Engram is the more interesting play for DFS. He’s established a fairly consistent role even on limited snaps, and if you remember his time on the Jags, the knock against him was they only used him between the 20s and not in the red zone, but on Denver, he has 4 red zone targets (Sutton only has 6!), so the role here is reasonable. Engram has a lower ceiling than Mims but a higher floor. 

LAS VEGAS

On the Raiders side, I expect they’re going to have a hard time moving the ball here. They’re averaging just 16.5 points per game on the season, which is their team total in this one, except here they’re on the road against one of the league’s premium defenses. The good news is that Ashton Jeanty’s role is one of the best in the league, getting over the 20-touch mark in almost every competitive game that Las Vegas has played this season. His passing game involvement is very up and down, but he does have games of 5 and 7 targets on his resume. He’s talented, though he’s struggled running behind a bad offensive line but the big thing we can count on here is touches. He’s something of a boom/bust play to me. If the Raiders keep the game close, there’s a good chance it’s because of Jeanty, and he has one of the highest ceilings in this Showdown. There’s real risk he gets game-scripted out on the ground, though, and the matchup is awful. I generally prefer the other high-end plays (Sutton, Brock Bowers) to Jeanty, but any running back with this kind of role has a huge ceiling. One way to approach this would be to go underweight on Jeanty in flex but overweight in captain, basically saying “if he hits, he’s likely to hit hard and thus be the optimal captain.” RB2 Raheem Mostert is barely seeing work with a season-high of 5 touches in a competitive game (and 7 touches in a non-competitive game). He’s a punt option, but I’d rather play the backup Denver RBs.

The Las Vegas passing game is all mixed up with Meyers gone, since he has played no fewer than 88% of the snaps in a game. That leaves Tre Tucker, Jack Bech, Tyler Lockett, and then perhaps Alex Bachman and/or Dont’e Thornton as the wideouts. Tucker should get a shot at being the alpha receiver, and his matchup is made much better with top Denver cornerback Pat Surtain out. This is still a very good defense, but not having to tangle with Surtain is a boost. Tucker is a wildly volatile receiver who has a lot of upside (43.9 DK points in Week 3!) but also struggles with drops (he dropped a completely wide-open ball just last week) and consistency. He’ll get his shot, and at $7k, you could argue he’s underpriced since pricing came out before the Meyers trade. Tyler Lockett showed no real juice at all with the Titans earlier this year, and I think it’s unlikely we’ll see him emerge with Las Vegas, but at $3k, he’s cheap, and I could be wrong, I guess. Meh? Jack Bech seems to have almost no role as he didn’t play at all last week, even with Thornton out last week. His one hope for upside is that it’s at least possible that the team views him as more of a direct backup to Meyers in a shorter-area role…maybe? I really don’t know; this is a volatile situation, but it wouldn’t shock me to see it play out that way. Thornton was playing a lot earlier in the year but was the odd man out last week, so he’s another candidate to potentially see more of a role. One of Thornton and Bech almost has to play, but I just don’t know who it is. Bech would be the higher floor option, while Thornton is more of a boom/bust profile, and I think I’d have a max 1 rule here because I expect it’ll be one playing at the other’s expense. Bachman is almost certain to be the WR5 and can safely be overlooked. Good lord, things are bleak in Vegas. Tucker’s a fine option, one of Thornton or Bech has a decent chance at being viable because of their cheap prices (but keep in mind it’s also possible they just cannibalize each other), Lockett might be pushed into duty because of the lack of anybody else, but is likely to have a hard time finding upside.

At tight end, things look nicer: Brock Bowers returned from a lengthy injury in Week 9 and promptly broke the slate with a 46.3 DK point performance, while TE2 Michael Mayer still played 83% of the snaps as the Raiders went with a lot of heavy personnel sets. Bowers is the best Raiders play on paper: he fits the likeliest game script much better than Jeanty, and he’s the most talented pass catcher they have. By a lot. After his explosion game, he’ll be popular, but that’s ok, as he’s so clearly the best option. He’s a great play. But, I also think Mayer deserves talking about: as I noted already, he played 83% of the snaps last week alongside Bowers and he saw 7 targets, good for second on the team. And now Meyers is out, and the wide receiver room is, to put it gently, in a state of uncertainty. Mayer could easily be 2nd on the team in targets once again, and he’s priced at just $2,800. He’s my favorite non-Bowers Las Vegas pass catcher, as I think he’s just too cheap for his role, and he feels a whole lot safer than any of their wideouts. 

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

The way this game is likely to play out is for the Raiders to get stomped. Of course. You know that. But weird things happen. As always, 5-1 Broncos onslaughts will be underowned as most optimizers will shove people towards 3-3 or 4-2 Broncos builds, but don’t overlook the 4-2 underdog build, which years of data tell us is consistently underowned relative to its likelihood of being viable. Given how cheap most of the Raiders are, it’s entirely possible to see something like Bo Nix plus Sutton, or Nix plus Dobbins, being the only two Broncos who are viable, while the Raiders get Bowers + Geno + two punt plays into the optimal lineup. 

CASH GAMES

I hate this slate for cash because I don’t feel confident at all in any running backs as cash plays. If you want to play cash, more power to you, but I don’t really see where the edge is.

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, my favorite captains should be unsurprising (Sutton, Bowers, Franklin, Dobbins), but I think you can make a good case for Mims if he’s healthy, for Mayer or Thornton as cheap Raiders options, or even for Harvey in 5-1 Denver onslaught builds.

Some groups to consider ::

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 1 of Thornton and Bech (could include Bachman in here too, really)

• At most 1 of Harvey and Badie

• At most 1 of Trautman and Engram

• For a general overview of Xandamere’s Showdown rules, refer here.