TNF Showdown Week 1: Cowboys at Eagles

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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

At long last, the NFL season begins and it kicks off with the Cowboys visiting the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. This game has a healthy 47.5 total with Philly favored by 7.5 (an important line when it’s over a touchdown). As has become a tradition, I will begin this article as I always do in Week 1: we know very, very little about how this season is going to play out. There are always teams that surprise us every year in both good and bad ways, and so while I’m going to write this from the perspective of “what’s most likely to happen,” just recognize that what’s most likely is less likely in Week 1 than it will be in later weeks. What this means is that if you have a strong take on how a game will play out and it’s different from the norm/how the field is seeing it, early in the season is the best time to take stands on those takes. Good luck!

Philadelphia

We’ll start with the Eagles and their backfield as Saquon Barkley returns after an absolutely monstrous season in which he rushed for 2005 yards (!), carrying the ball a whopping 345 times and averaging . . . AVERAGING 125 yards per game on the ground. He added another 33 catches for 278 yards through the air and scored 15 total touchdowns. He was a beast, and he played for one of the league’s best offenses in a clear 3-down bell cow role (even if his receiving role was smaller than we’ve seen in the past for him, with fewer catches than any full or nearly full season he’s played so far in the NFL).

Now for the downside: Saquon passed the 1,500 career carry mark last season. That’s a LOT in running back terms. He’s 28 years old. It’s very rare to see 28-year-old running backs with 1,500+ carries on them continue to play at an elite level. Can Saquon still be elite? Of course he can. And the offensive environment he's in is an elite one as well. But don’t be surprised if we see the dreaded running back cliff arrive this season. There’s no way we’ll be able to predict exactly when it hits, but Father Time is undefeated.

I hate saying negative stuff about such an amazing player, but it’s going to happen at some point. Kenneth Gainwell is gone, so Will Shipley should be in the undisputed RB2 role (AJ Dillon has been really bad and pretty sure he’s only around as a depth/emergency piece). Last year, we saw Gainwell handle only a few touches per game, making Shipley largely uninteresting except for two things. First, he’s dirt cheap at $2k (Gainwell was usually $3k - $4k), putting him in the price range where it’s feasible that five carries and a catch or two result in enough yardage to make him relevant.

Second, the Eagles aren’t idiots, and it’s possible they decide to pull back a bit on how they used Saquon last year - at least early in the season - to try and make sure he’s fresh for their inevitable playoff run. Is that the likeliest scenario? Probably not, as they didn’t really do it last year, but it’s at least a possibility, and if you want to think Shipley gets more like 10-12 touches than 5-7 touches, I think that’s a reasonable position to take. 

In the passing game, the Eagles top wideouts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, are both nursing Q tags, but everything indicates they should play without restrictions. Also relevant to their outlooks is that Trevon Diggs, the Cowboys top cornerback, appears on the wrong side of a questionable tag. Diggs avoided the PUP list as he’s coming back from last year’s season-ending knee injury, but it looks unlikely he’s ready to go just yet. The matchup is already good and Diggs’ absence would just make it better.

We’ve also heard rumblings out of camp about the Eagles tweaking their offense to not be quite so run-heavy, which, if that holds true, would (obviously) be good for Eagles pass catchers (and bad for Saquon). It’s hard to put a lot of trust in coachspeak during camps, but it’s worth noting that all of the Eagles pass catchers are relatively inexpensive. A couple of years ago, it looked like Brown and Smith were 1A/1B with little room between them, but in the last two seasons, we’ve seen daylight between them with Brown clearly looking like the alpha.

Over the past two years, when they’ve shared the field Brown has led in target volume, catches, yards, and also by a long margin, yards per reception. Brown is not only seeing more targets, but the targets he’s seeing are also more valuable. Smith is always a fine play, but when they’re priced just $1k apart, I’m going to lean Brown’s direction, especially with Dallas missing their top corner, who would be likely to shadow Brown were he healthy. Philly got Jahan Dotson to be their WR3 last year, but we’ve seen how the WR3 role is largely ignored in this offense. Outside of a Week 18 smash when the main guys sat, Dotson saw a grand total of just 22 targets the entire season. Yep, under two per game on average. You’re really hoping for a fluky touchdown to make him pay off. 

At tight end, Dallas Goedert is super talented but has had a tough time producing in this offensive scheme when everyone else is healthy. Goedert had one explosion game last year but otherwise did not exceed 15 DraftKings points once last season and only reached 10 on four occasions. He’s also been used more between the chains, with just three targets inside the 10 yard line last year. Goedert is one of the guys specifically talking about a bigger role in the offense - that’s part of the whole “bigger passing game” stuff I mentioned earlier - but it’s kind of hard to buy it until I’ve seen it, and Goedert’s name brand tends to attract ownership in Showdowns no matter what.

I’m not that excited to play him but will of course have exposure in MME - probably under the field, though. TE2 Grant Calcaterra makes for a viable punt option, as while most of his games were mediocre, he had four games last year that would have paid off his salary. He actually saw more regular season targets than Dotson despite being on the field far less often. Is he a great play? No, but he’s a reasonable one. 

Dallas

On the Dallas side, we’re looking at an unclear backfield (and possibly a split one) behind a mediocre offensive line as significant road underdogs going up against what was the league’s best overall defense last year. That’s a tough spot for a run game. The good news is they’re all cheap. Javonte Williams is expected to begin the season in the RB1 role with Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue behind him.

Blue seems likely to take over the backfield at some point during the season but I doubt it happens in Week 1 (though who knows, I could be wrong). Sanders and Blue have also been a bit banged up in camp, making it seem even likelier that Javonte begins the season in the lead role.

Everything about the situation looks awful but being able to get a lead back at $5,200, especially one who has shown a solid pass-catching role (70 targets last year, averaged 3.8 targets/game during his four years in Denver), is hard to turn down. It’s a gross spot but volume is king and I’m tempted to lean into the uncertainty here at a really cheap price as long as his projected ownership doesn’t get out of hand.

We’ll have to see what major projection services have for Javonte’s points projection, as that’s going to drive his ownership, but if he stays under 30% or so, that’s a number I’m very comfortable being over the field on. I’m also willing to take some shots on Blue as he was getting awesome reports out of camp and so maybe he does end up overtaking Williams sooner rather than later, and I’ll probably just stay away from Sanders. 

In the passing game, Brandin Cooks is gone and George Pickens is here – clearly an upgrade (at least at this stage in Cooks’ career). CeeDee Lamb returns to the unquestioned WR1 role as one of the best wideouts in the NFL and then Jalen Tolbert should occupy the WR3 spot. Jonathan Mingo was placed on IR leaving gadget guy KaVontae Turpin as another viable WR option, but otherwise, we shouldn’t see much beyond the three main guys this week.

Dallas also gets Dak Prescott back after he only played eight games last year. And while last year was mediocre, let’s remember that Dak was the overall QB1 for the second half of the 23-24 season. He’s certainly capable of carrying an offense (and he’s pretty shockingly cheap as well).

Lamb is, obviously, awesome. Not much I can say about him. The passing volume will likely be there as Dallas is probably trailing in this one, and while the matchup sucks, Lamb can produce in any matchup, and Dallas will work to scheme him open all over the field. Lamb has averaged over 10 targets per game for the last two seasons, and that kind of volume is nearly unheard of. He’s a target hog who will get his no matter what the defense tries to do. Does that mean he’ll definitely put up a tourney-worthy score? Of course not – but he’s the safest pass catching option on the board in this one.

Pickens in the WR2 role is tricky to figure out. While he’s very talented, the WR2/WR3 in this offense have historically not been all that productive for fantasy purposes, as the offense tends to flow through Lamb, the tight ends, and the running backs. Is it possible things change up this year? Of course, but I think Pickens is likely to be something of a deep threat and will need to hit on limited volume, and that’s a tough selling point for me against an elite defense and at an $8k price. I’ll have some, but he’s not any sort of elite play to me.

Tolbert is a capable WR3 (and he played the WR2 plenty last year), and at $3,400, he’s cheap enough to not need a ton of production – he’s a viable if unexciting play. Turpin is a gadget guy who Dallas tries to use creatively, and while he’s never likely to see a lot of volume, he has some big play ability and he gets used in the red zone – he’s worthwhile as a dart throw at a cheap price. 

At tight end is where things get fun for me. Jake Ferguson has always shown a strong connection with Dak – they played seven games together last year and Ferguson had 52 targets for an average of 5.4/48 – that’s 10 DK points right there without any touchdowns. Against a strong Philly pass rush, it’s easy to see Dallas designing a game plan around getting the ball out quickly to Lamb, tight ends, and running backs.

Oh, and TE2 Luke Schoonmaker is in the concussion protocol (no news as of Monday, but we should get some clarity on his availability soon). If he misses, that only helps Ferguson’s role. At $5,200, I think Ferguson is about $1k too cheap – he should be up there with Goedert – and he’s a clearly overweight position for me. 

Team Overview

Before we get into the most likely game flow, let’s consider the teams as a whole a bit. You can find more details in our division previews, but the TL;DR is that Dallas defense has pretty mediocre personnel, but new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has a history of putting together solid defensive schemes. Could Dallas surprise us on D? Possibly? I doubt this is the spot in which they’re able to surprise us and shut down an opponent, but who knows. It’s Week 1. Weird things happen. They have a weak O-line and are big road underdogs, so we are likely to see elevated passing game volume if they end up playing from behind. The Eagles are likely to remain monsters – their key personnel are back, their O-line looks great, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is a genius who led them to the overall #1 defense last year (after being 29th the year before).

Strategy Outlook

It’s Week 1, and strange things happen, but it’s tough for me to see the Cowboys, who were heartily mediocre and look fairly talent deficient outside of a few real stars, upsetting the defending Super Bowl champions at home. If you want to build that way, have at it. Showdowns are tiny single-game samples and with small player pools, you need to find ways to be different but I feel pretty confident the Eagles romp here and that I will need to find my differentiation via roster construction and individual player exposure rather than by betting on the underdogs to win. That said, 4-2 underdog builds have long shown huge +EV in Showdown and make some sense here, because even if the Eagles win the game, their scoring could easily be pretty spread out and their players are on the whole more expensive, while Dallas could generate points via elevated passing volume in the second half and lead to Dak carrying multiple guys to optimal lineups. 

Cash Games

In cash games, I definitely want the quarterbacks (Dak is just too cheap!), using Javonte gives me the value I need to also fit Saquon, and then kickers are always great. Lamb is always a solid play if you can find a way to get to him. Ferguson also feels highly viable in cash. 

Tournaments

In tournaments, the obvious guys are all strong with Lamb being my overall favorite skill position play in the game, and then Ferguson and Williams are two key spots I want to be overweight on (probably Blue as well – I don’t think it’ll take much exposure to be overweight the field on him). 

Some groups to consider

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At most 2 of Brown, Smith, and Goedert (this is a relatively low passing volume offense and I don’t want all 3 of these guys)

• At most 1 Dallas running back (not in a nightmare matchup as big road underdogs, thanks)

• At most 1 of Turpin and whoever Dallas elevates at WR to replace Mingo

• At most 1 of Dotson, Metchie, and Cooper

• At most 1 of Goedert and Calcaterra