The Deuce: Week 17

By :: Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)

Overview ::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Texans – A lot of different scenarios could play out in Week 17 and 18 for the Texans, but the bottom line is that if they win Saturday they clinch a playoff berth. Their backfield could be a little tough to predict, as Woody Marks is back to full practices and has no injury designation, but is joined by veteran Nick Chubb and the impressive Jawhar Jordan in a matchup with a shaky Chargers run defense. Houston is also going to get a couple of key defenders back on the field this week after a shaky performance against the Raiders.

• Chargers – The Chargers have already clinched a playoff berth but can win the AFC West by winning their last two games and could potentially end up as high as the No. 1 seed, depending on what happens with the Jaguars and Patriots over the last two weeks. This is essentially a playoff game for them. Their wide receivers torched the Cowboys last week but have a stark change in matchup this week, as Dallas ranks 31st in PFF coverage grade and Houston ranks third. Four wide receivers are involved for the Chargers and all of them saw five or six targets last week. Running back Kimani Vidal missed two practices with a neck issue and then was limited on Thursday to earn a questionable tag, but it’s looking like a tough hill for him to climb to be active this week.

• Ravens – Baltimore ruled QB Lamar Jackson out for this week due to a back injury and will once again turn to Tyler Huntley to lead them. This likely means a run-heavy game plan that involves both Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell, along with a relatively conservative passing attack. Baltimore must win this game and have the Steelers lose to the Browns on Sunday to have any chance of making the playoffs.

• Packers – Green Bay clinched a playoff berth when the Lions lost on Thursday and starting QB Jordan Love will NOT play this week as the team gives him a week to recover from his concussion suffered in the first half against the Bears. This leaves the highly agile and exciting Malik Willis under center for this primetime matchup. The Packers do still have an outside shot at winning the NFC North if they win their last two games and the Bears lose their last two.

QB Thoughts ::

• I would expect Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Willis to draw very similar levels of ownership as none of them truly stand out from each other and are appropriately priced. Herbert has the toughest matchup, but the best pedigree. Stroud also has a tough matchup against a strong Chargers pass defense, but he provides meaningful salary savings in a dome game with paths to being higher scoring. Willis is the cheapest of the three and has the ability to add points with his legs, but the game environment looks shaky. All have relatively thin upside cases and real questions about their floors, which means that none of them are likely to run away as the most popular option. One thing is clear, that Huntley will be the least popular QB on the slate.

• The interesting thing about Herbert is how many different ways you could stack him on this slate. The Chargers play four wide receivers, plus Oronde Gadsden and Omarion Hampton could certainly be played with him. This means there are so many different combinations to use that it is relatively easy to stack him in a somewhat unique way. This isn’t usually the case on a smaller slate like this, which makes it appealing to me.

• Stroud has played seven games since the team’s Week 6 bye, and in those games, he has over 20 points two times and under 15 points five times. The two times he hit for the upside were against struggling and injured defenses of Arizona and San Francisco. The Chargers have only allowed one team (Jacksonville) to score over 20 points since Week 7, so this definitely feels more likely to be one of Stroud’s 10-to-15-point performances.

• Willis is highly intriguing on this slate. The Ravens are a strong defense in name, but they can be beaten and make mistakes. The presence of Huntley at QB on the other side could also result in more possessions and scoring for the Packers. I think Willis could really show out this week.

• Huntley is priced right by Stroud and Willis. I think he will produce some, but paths to a big score seem unlikely against a very good Packers defense that doesn’t seem likely to be diced up by a backup like Huntley.

My guess on final ownership::

• Herbert, Stroud, and Willis – 25% to 35%

• Huntley – 6 to 10%

RB Thoughts ::

• Hampton seems likely to be working in a bell-cow role once again as Vidal’s status is in question, and even if he does play with a neck injury, that seems like a shaky thing in terms of how many snaps he will handle or the team will give him.

• Henry will be the engine of the Ravens offense and should touch the ball anywhere from 20 to 30 times. It wouldn’t be surprising if Mitchell is also very involved in a run-heavy game plan.

• Josh Jacobs has been battling injuries for several weeks now and once again is in a spot where the team’s overall offensive outlook is iffy and he’s likely to be sharing the workload. His name likely outweighs his role and ceiling at this point, but on a two-game slate, if he scores 15 to 20 points he can easily be optimal.

• I don’t trust the Texans backfield, but both Marks and Jordan are in spots where if they posted a solid game, it wouldn’t shock me. For large-field tournaments, I really like Jordan, who has shown explosiveness and basically no one will be playing. Marks is coming back from injury, the team continues to involve Chubb, and Jordan led the team in touches the last two weeks. It is an uncertain situation, but the Chargers are a bit of a “run funnel” and Jordan is the guy they haven’t been playing all season while their running game struggled. I guess what I’m saying is that if they are going to expose the Chargers on the ground, I think the guy with fresh legs who hasn’t spent all season being inefficient is the best bet for making that happen.

WR Thoughts ::

• I don’t have a lot of in-depth analysis about the wide receiver position on this slate, as no spots really stand out to me and it will all likely come down to targets and touchdowns. The Chargers and Texans both have elite secondaries, while the Packers and Ravens have backup quarterbacks. My rankings for the position can be found below, but my general approach at the position will be building the other spots first and then filling out wide receiver based on what tells the best “story” for everything else I have in place.

TE Thoughts ::

• Tight end is a bit of a wasteland for this one, as there aren’t any real standout spots or elite matchups. 

• Dalton Schultz is the best option on the slate at the position, as the Chargers are very good against wide receivers and the Texans aren’t a strong running team, so it is unlikely they are able to just run it all game. This leaves Schultz in the short-area role that could rack up a bunch of targets.

• Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are players who could see an uptick in targets if the game plays out in a way that the Ravens are playing from behind. They only combined for five targets in Huntley’s previous start, but the Ravens led that game most of the way. Green Bay has a low blitz rate, which in theory would let the tight ends get out on routes at a high rate. 

• Gadsden has a high ceiling and high floor. He has shown an ability to go off and make plays downfield and after the catch. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if he posts a big game and/or leads the position in scoring on this slate, as Houston’s secondary is terrific and their run defense is also very solid.

• Luke Musgrave is only $2,700 and should be playing a full-time role and see a handful of targets in this spot. Playing him on a two-TE lineup is an interesting way to approach things.

Positional Rankings ::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB ::

1. Omarion Hampton

2. Derrick Henry

3. Josh Jacobs

4. Keaton Mitchell

WR ::

1. Nico Collins

2. Ladd McConkey

3. Zay Flowers

4. Christian Watson

5. Quentin Johnston

6. Jayden Higgins

7. Jayden Reed

8. Keenan Allen 

9. Romeo Doubs

TE ::

1. Dalton Schultz

2. Oronde Gadsden

3. Mark Andrews

4. Isaiah Likely

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS ::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::

  • Tre’ Harris

  • Luke Musgrave

  • Jawhar Jordan

  • Emanuel Wilson

  • DeAndre Hopkins

  • Matthew Golden

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 4:00 pm ET Saturday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)