Thanksgiving Oracle

Thanksgiving Oracle 2024

1. Contest Selection and Bankroll 

2. Late Swap and Adjustments

3. Getting Unique

4. Value Plays

Question 1/4

NFL DFS on Thanksgiving can be a wild ride and extremely fun. Especially since the NFL moved a few years ago to having three games on the day, it’s pretty much a full day of football and fun. The tricky thing about this is that it is such a unique slate and many of us have a lot of other commitments on this day. It is easy to be tempted by an extra day of football at this point in the season, especially with the monster contests that the sites offer, but the nature of the slate is so unique that there is a tight line to balance of playing too much and overextending the bankroll.

Considering the nature of the day, size of the contests, and small number of games – do you have a preferred approach from a contest selection (size, price, and format) and/or bankroll approach?

Xandamere

I personally always set aside time on Thanksgiving for DFS (sometimes to my wife’s dismay) - to Mike’s point, a lot of people are playing very casually on this slate, they might set a lineup but they won’t check in throughout the day and late swap, and so to me this is one of the highest-edge slates of the season. That doesn’t mean you’ll always be profitable on it, of course, as sharp rosters flop all the time…but the EV is there. 

Normally on a short slate, I don’t enter as much volume as I would on a main slate, but Thanksgiving is the exception to me here. Personally I treat it like a regular main slate and try to get around my normal full slate buy-ins, because I feel like the edge is great and I want to hammer it. That approach may not work for you, though! If you go this route, make sure you have the appropriate amount of time to dedicate to DFS, both in prep before the slate and then being able to watch the slate as it progresses - one of the biggest advantages of Thanksgiving DFS is how the games are spread out, which allows you to assess where you are and react by swapping, and if you aren’t able to utilize this edge, I would recommend either not playing or just playing a modest amount for fun.

TL;DR - Only enter as many rosters as you feel you can effectively watch and swap if needed. 

Hilow

First off, consider this - Thanksgiving weekend is the most viewed weekend of football outside of the Super Bowl. Now relate that to DFS - size of contests, skill of the average entry in contests, familial obligations, shortened week, time to prepare, etc. The edge is tangible this holiday weekend. That said, we should really be viewing this slate as another data point to amplify our expected value. As in, if you are a losing player, more volume simply means your money will bleed faster with an additional data point. But we here at OWS can use the additional data point to realize our equity sooner. All of that to say - nothing really changes for me outside of a few additional Milly Maker entries. Play your game and realize your equity faster!

For me, one of my greatest edges is my ability to see beyond the projections (ownership and otherwise) to be able to identify what the field is likeliest to see out of a slate. That edge is amplified on a short slate (although I haven’t quite perfected how to harness it for showdown slates just yet), meaning I’ll be looking to attack this weekend with little remorse. 

MJohnson86

There is a ton of edge on this slate, but it can also be super hard to realize that edge in a huge way because of the likelihood of duplicate lineups and soft pricing. I like to play a few higher $ entries in smaller fields as those present more realistic paths to a big score, but I also like to build a lot of different lineups in MME-style contests as there are a lot of fun, creative ways to give yourself a sweat going into the last game and the uniqueness of the ability to late swap and exploit variable change (explored in the next question) makes this slate one of a kind in a lot of ways. For this week, I’ll be using the Bink Machine to mass enter the Milly Maker on DraftKings and hand build for a couple of the higher dollar single entry tournaments. On FanDuel, I will play three or four entries in the $55 “Gravy Bomb” and then again use the Bink Machine to mass enter the big $3 tournament, the “Roasted Rush”.

JM

I LOVE this question; it’s one I would not have thought to ask, but it’s one I have consciously been making decisions around this week.

Because my family is always traveling at Thanksgiving AND we have two “main slates” this week from a content perspective, I typically head into Wednesday evening thinking I won’t be playing this slate…and then, by Wednesday night, I find myself thinking, “Well, I’ve put in all this work on this slate; let’s see if I can find some rosters that give me an edge.”

Of course, at this point, I’ve followed this pattern enough times (and had enough big days on the Thanksgiving slate) that I’m now aware of the fact that I am probably playing this slate. With that said, I will allow “my feel for the slate” to dictate my approach.

My typical approach on this day is to play one roster in the $1500 Game Changer, and to otherwise leave the slate alone. To be clear, this is not a "prescription" — it's just sort of been my tradition; and given that it's a busy week on my end with content/work/family/travel, it makes sense for me to target a one-roster strategy.

I'll also note that I've had at least one or two times in the last few years when I haven't had enough time to play just one roster, and have instead gone three-max. This echoes the sentiment of the old quote attributed (I believe) to Mark Twain that goes something like, "I would have written you a shorter letter, but I didn't have enough time." Basically: yes, with less time available on a slate, I don't want to get into the weeds with MME; but also, it takes MORE time to feel great about the expected value of a one-lineup approach than it takes to feel great about the expected value of a three- or even five-lineup approach.

I'm answering these questions on a plane from Denver to Tulsa on Tuesday, and tonight I'll be recording the Winner Circle podcast, then tomorrow I'll work all day on the NFL Edge for the Main Slate (in order to not miss too much time on Thanksgiving Day with work, while still getting my write-ups out there as early as possible for readers; my Friday doesn't change on Thanksgiving week, which means my Edge writeups still have to be done by the end of the day on Thanksgiving Day). This means I won't know until late Wednesday night what I plan to do — whether I choose not to play (which would be a surprise), or choose to play three-max, or choose to put just one roster in play.

While this answer of mine doesn't speak much to the strategy around this slate and "what you should do with your bankroll to account for what this slate provides," it does speak to what many of us deal with this week :: "The Thanksgiving slate is fun to play; but also, there is real life going on this week that should ultimately dictate our own approach to this slate." Get a feel for what you can do this week — and don't do more than that.

Question 2/4

One of the most +EV things that is available to us on any DFS slate is the ability to late swap. The fact of the matter is that extra information is available to us after each game completes and we can use the information from the game’s results as well as ownership to help us make the best decisions going forward. As a bonus, a very small percentage of our competition actually uses this option. While we don’t always have to make the swap, at least looking at it and considering it can help us in all types of contests. The extra unique thing about this slate is that there is usually 30 minutes to an hour between each game ending and the next one starting, giving us actual time to have the complete information and a bit of time to dissect how we want to use that information – this is very different from a usual Sunday NFL DFS slate where most games are still going on when the second wave of game kick off.

With all of that in mind, do you have any specific strategies you use prior to or during the Thanksgiving slate in regards to late swap?

Xandamere

As I noted above, I only want to play as many rosters as I can devote time to watching and swapping. If you can’t viably watch 150 rosters for potential swaps, don’t MME! Late swap is the critical difference on the Thanksgiving slate, and if you don’t have time to utilize it, you’re playing at a disadvantage. As far as how I think about using it…

If I’m doing multi-entry, I want to ensure duplication of my favorite combinations from game 1. It’s the highest Vegas total game (CHI/DET) and the highest Vegas total individual team (the Lions), and so that’s going to shape the slate. If I do 150 lineups, I’ll want to have a few that bet on this game failing entirely (no players from it, or maybe a DST), a few that bet on it not being an absolute smash (1-2 players from it but no major game stacks), and then a lot of rosters that are built around stacks from this game or even full-on mega stacks (5+ players from this game). 

One key to me here is that while normally in MME play we don’t want duplication, on a slate like this, you want some at the start. So, what I will usually do is if I’m entering 150 lineups in a contest, I’ll start the day by just building 50 and enter them each 3 times. This means that if any given roster hits the nuts from the first game, I now have 3 chances to build around that great starting point and try to work my way towards an overall tournament winner. If in the first game I have a lot of Moore and a lot of Amon-Ra St. Brown and a lot of Gibbs, I’ll obviously have some with them all paired together no matter what…but what about if it’s a less owned play like, say, Cole Kmet or Sam LaPorta that ends up putting up a really big score in the first game? I want to make sure I have a good chance of more than one roster that has a legitimate path to first place, and I’ve found this is the best way to do it - you can build 50 rosters that attack the first game in all sorts of different ways, you don’t necessarily need 150 different rosters to do that, and then you can iterate around the best combinations to go forward through the rest of the day. 

Also, make sure you’re keeping track of ownership! As you consider how to iterate and essentially build your rosters on the fly throughout the day, you want to know how much ownership has been “used up” and how much is still outstanding, as that’s critical to knowing how you’re doing. Sitting the top 1% of a tournament after two games with two players left to go? Is that a good spot? Well, if the “average” roster only has 1.5 plays left, it’s a good spot. If the average roster has four players left to play, your odds of winning that tournament are not as high as you might think, and that necessitates a different strategy. DK makes this easy: Download the contest entry file and add up the total ownership of plays by position to see how much has been “used.” There’s only 100% QB ownership to go around, 200% RB ownership, 300% WR ownership, 100% TE ownership, and then another 100% that could go to RB/WR/TE. Other sites make it harder, you have to do it by hand by scrolling through lineups and noting down ownership percentages for each player, but it’s doable and it’s worth the effort.

Hilow

Oh for sure. Even though the Thanksgiving slate is more casual for me, that doesn’t mean I’m not taking things seriously. I typically have my wife build a few rosters so she has a rooting interest as well (I’ve done this for Showdowns as well, to great success), which makes it so I don’t have to be incognito or sneak away to check rosters. She knows what’s up and what I’m doing, so it works out well. That allows me to be on top of late swap as the day moves along, which is still one of the most +EV aspects of any slate, let alone a slate where we get more information before the follow-on games.   

MJohnson86

I think having an understanding of the contests you are playing is key here. The main thing to keep in mind is the type of contest you are in and having an awareness of where you stand. The way this slate sets up, we will have a lot of information about the slate after the early game, as the Bears’ passing game and Lions’ offense in general are likely to garner a ton of interest. The middle game is the one where there is likely the most variance, with Cooper Rush and Drew Lock under center and two defenses that have struggled throughout the year. Therefore, late swap gives you the chance to lean into that variance once you have information from the earliest, and possibly most popular, game on the slate.

JM

As noted above, I typically play only one roster on Thanksgiving. Late Swap can still be a valuable tool with only one entry in play, of course, but it is less of a “core component” of a roster-building strategy than it would be if I were doing MME (i.e., “If you’re doing MME, pay closer attention to what Xandamere is saying; if you’re not doing MME, perhaps pay closer attention to what I am saying”).

Generally speaking (with a single-entry focus on this slate), my late-swap strategy is based more around “what my roster looks like as the day moves along” than around preemptive moves designed to maximize late-swap flexibility. I.e., “This roster doesn’t have a shot at first place as currently constructed, so I’ll make this change in order to increase my chances of a big payout.”

Said differently: I'll look at ownership projections and come up with a story for this slate that will be different from the story most others will be telling. If this story plays out in my favor, I'll be in great shape to win; and if this story doesn't play out in my favor, I probably won't win even with some sharp late-swaps. As such, late swap is unlikely to come heavily into play for my own particular style of play on the Thanksgiving slate — but that's not to say that late swap has no power or value. It's just to say: Know what you're doing, and understand what you should be doing with Late Swap as a result.

Question 3/4

There are only three games on this slate and many of the contests have enormous prize pools. Finding a unique lineup without sacrificing too much ceiling can be very difficult, but is necessary to give ourselves the greatest chance of being paid off for getting things right. 

What are some strategies you use to “be unique” on a slate like this and what size of contests do you think this becomes most important for?

Xandamere

My favorite strategy on small slates is overstacking, which is rosters with 5+ players from one game. You’re betting that one game goes off while the other two disappoint (or at least don’t produce any must-have scores). That obviously isn’t the likeliest outcome…but most players don’t build this way. Most players aren’t going to stack Jared Goff with 3-4 Lions and have 2-3 Bears coming back. Optimizers don’t “like” to build this way, so people can’t really get to these types of rosters without some intentional effort on their part. 

This strategy is viable in all contest types, in my opinion. In smaller-field contests, you want to maximize floor, which you can do by picking one game to try and capture all the scoring from. In larger-field contests, you need to maximize ceiling, and so while this strategy is somewhat less to result in pure ceiling, you’re also achieving more differentiation from the field. 

MJohnson86

• Playing defense from the team I have used as a primary stack OR playing the opposing defense from that primary stack.

• Leaving extra salary on the table.

• Using RBs from the SAME team, if/when the team’s breakdown of usage makes it viable to pay off.

• As others have said, overstacking a specific game or team.

JM

I won't speak to contest size, as I have almost exclusively focused on smaller-field contests throughout my decade-plus of playing the Thanksgiving slate. But what I'm ultimately looking to do on this slate is A) keep in mind that we're targeting first place (which means it's okay to be "wrong" if you're building in such a way that "being right" could get you a tourney win), and B) still make sharp decisions.

What I mean by this is, firstly, I don't mind playing some chalk if I truly like the play, and if I truly feel there is a high-probability chance that this chalk play will be a necessary piece on the slate. Same as any 10-13 game Main Slate: it's likely that some of the chalk on this slate is required in order to win a tourney. But also — as explored elsewhere — I like to really leverage ownership projections on this slate to find places where I can "get different" without being stupid. Ideally, this is through some sort of wholesale shift in perspective, where I'm looking at a game playing out differently than "what's likeliest," and this allows me to shift away from some chalk while playing some lower-owned plays in a way that all ties together (i.e., "If things play out this different way, this chalk will underwhelm, and this low-owned piece — or, ideally, these low-owned pieces — will benefit"). It only takes one shift like that to win a tourney on this slate, and that's what I'm always on the lookout for.

Question 4/4

Value Plays: A small slate with games spread out and loose pricing will allow most people to play “super teams”, which is the strategy the site uses to entice the “casual” players to play more because they feel better about the teams they can make. However, with only three games on the slate, all it takes is one broken play or an early sprained ankle for a surprise player to come out of the woodwork and become a piece that can separate your roster.

Who are some relatively cheaper players who you think have realistic paths to flipping the slate?

Xandamere

• If David Montgomery misses, Craig Reynolds

• Darius Slayton

• Jalen Tolbert

• Tim Patrick

• KaVontae Turpin

• Cole Kmet

MJohnson86

When I say “flipping the slate” in my question, it doesn’t necessarily mean they have to post a 25-point game like would be the case on a main slate. Simply having a RB in the low $4k range post a 14-point game or a WR in the $3k range catching a long TD can completely alter the dynamic of the slate, depending on how the scoring for the rest of the slate plays out. For example, let’s say D’Andre Swift sprains his ankle early and Roschon Johnson gets a goal-line TD and three or four catches, posting 15 points at $4,500 while the Bears struggle. That in itself doesn’t flip the slate, but if no RBs on the slate go over 20-22 points and three of the expensive WRs (ARSB, Lamb, Nabers, Tyreek) go over 100 yards with a TD then all of a sudden having Roschon may allow you to play all three of them in a lineup which not many people will have been able to do. With that in mind, here are some guys I’ll be mixing in to try to open myself up to those possibilities.

• Jalen Tolbert (Brandin Cooks)

• Roschon Johnson

• Tim Patrick

• Malik Washington

• Darius Slayton

Also have to mention that Drew Lock playing on Thanksgiving is fun for everyone, and I’m thankful.

JM

"Realistic paths" to flipping the slate? Maybe none.

But here are some who could hit, with the right things breaking their way:

Caleb Williams

Cooper Rush

Drew Lock

Brandin Cooks, if he plays

KaVontae Turpin

Dontayvion Wicks

Bo Melton

Sam LaPorta

Jonnu Smith

Tucker Kraft

Join us Friday for Week 13 Start/Sit Questions!