Thanksgiving End Around

OWS Fam –

We’re kicking off Black Friday early!

💥 80% OFF Inner Circle (code: BlackFriday25)

💥 Bink Machine: $19 Rest of Season (no code)

That’s full-season access to strategy, player grids, and the optimizer that’s built to find your edge.

Unlock Inner Circle Access 

Build Lineups with Bink Machine

And now for today’s feature from the Daily Dose…

BY :: HILOW 

MACRO SLATE VIEW ::

There are three games on the Thanksgiving slate, each of which carries a game total between 49.0 (Packers @ Lions) and 52.5 (Chiefs @ Cowboys). That macro realization is going to guide much of our exploitative stances on this short slate, if nothing more than for the simple fact that Vegas is currently projecting three games with similar environments. The first two games on the slate carry spreads within three points, while the Ravens are favored by a solid seven. That leaves Baltimore with the highest Vegas implied team total, which has directly inflated the expected ownership of their players. We’ll discuss more of the nuanced aspects of that realization below.

As we discuss every year on the Thanksgiving slate, this slate is unlike any other throughout the season. The primary reason is that it is a slate played in sequence, rather than played simultaneously (as most other slates in the year are). I went into the theoretics of that truth on the Tuesday edition of DFS Labs but will quickly touch on the wavetops here.

Picture the game tree of a slate as an upside-down Christmas tree, starting at a single point and extending upwards and outwards. This game tree represents every decision point along with every outcome available to us, is borderline infinite on a normal slate but carries far fewer total outcomes on a three-game slate, and will have an optimal path. On a full slate, we know we have more leeway away from optimal to win. On a one-game slate, we know we often must hit exact optimal to win. On a three-game slate, in contests with more than 600,000 entries, we know we must be closer to actual optimal to win on this slate. But the biggest change on the Thanksgiving slate is that the game tree is effectively three small trees placed on top of each other due to the sequential nature of the slate, with three games played back-to-back-to-back as opposed to at the same time. That means we get more information with each passing game, each passing quarter, and each passing play. As a general rule, the bulk of the field will not be approaching things in this manner, instead setting a roster, or portfolio of rosters, and letting things play out. We have a distinct edge in making adjustments at each new decision point in the game tree (each game) as more information is added.

Knowing that we must be as close to optimal as possible, if not exact optimal, to win on this slate, we should be adjusting the remainder of our rosters/portfolio based on how close to optimal a given roster is after each game is played. 

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK ::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

A quick note before we jump into the chalk – We’re only going to cover the top ownership expectation at each position to streamline our discussion on the Thanksgiving slate.

PATRICK MAHOMES

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The quarterback for the team leading the league in PROE, that also ranks third in pass attempts per game, against the Cowboys. Checks out, on paper.

JA’MARR CHASE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The receiver leading the league in XFP/G (ranks behind only Christian McCaffrey at all positions) playing with his starting quarterback for the first time since Week 2 and without Tee Higgins. Checks out.

DERRICK HENRY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Henry has seen 20 or more opportunities in each of his previous six games, against the worst defense in the league. Checks out.

MARK ANDREWS

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Andrews has seen five or fewer targets in each game since the team’s Week 5 bye, making him heavily reliant on touchdowns for his fantasy production. Cracks are starting to show themselves.

RAVENS D/ST

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Ravens have started to play better football while getting much healthier, on both sides of the ball. That said, their opponents since their Week 7 bye were the Bears, the Dolphins, the Vikings, the Browns, and the Jets – not exactly a murderer’s row of offensive ability. They have only 18 sacks and 13 takeaways on the year and are averaging 2.0 sacks and 2.0 takeaways per game since their bye. More cracks.

CHALK BUILD ::

As you’ll notice through the explorations above, the field is glomming onto the final game of the slate. That game carries the highest composite ownership expectation as the field expects it to be the game where focused production will emerge. There are two interesting aspects of that setup: (1) what if the production concentrates so hard that only two, or so, players emerge as optimal, and (2) what if the game disappoints to where one, or so, player emerges as optimal? Which is to say, there are so many ways for these games to play out and the field seems focused on one outcome. For example, Andrews is garnering the highest ownership at the tight-end position. He is a great play on paper, but the nature of his involvement in the offense effectively makes him highly reliant on touchdowns for his fantasy production. What are the most difficult things to project in football? Touchdowns. This is a player that has not seen more than five targets since the team’s Week 7 bye. The two multi-touchdown games in that span inflate his final box score numbers. Let’s think outside the box a bit, shall we?

EXPLOITATIVE LEVERAGE ::

PACKERS-LIONS GAME STACKS

The Packers carry the lowest composite ownership on the slate, by far, which tells me the field views this game as carrying the lowest probability chance of turning into something you had to have on the slate. And yet, this game carries a game total that is within 3.5 points of the other two. Statistically speaking, the game with the highest game total on the slate, the Chiefs @ Cowboys, would end with a higher total number of points scored than the Packers-Lions game 51.7% of the time, assuming both games carry a linear range of outcomes. That is simplifying things based on median expectations, using each game’s game total as the starting point, but it should reinforce the idea here. We have three games that are within 3.5 points of each other, with one team carrying the lowest composite ownership. Game-environment bets anchored by the Packers are going to carry significant EV on Thanksgiving. The likeliest spot for expected production would be through Jordan Love and Christian Watson, the pairing of which will anchor a solid chunk of my rosters in play on Thursday. I will be adding players from both sides of this game to form game-environment bets to include anywhere from four to six or seven total players from this game. Finally, both quarterbacks from this game represent the bottom two quarterbacks in expected ownership.

UNDER-OWNED VALUE

Comparatively low-owned value represents a massive potential for EV on this short slate, with Isaac TeSlaa (pending the statuses of Brock Wright and Kalif Raymond), Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, and Tyquan Thornton my favorite players to target within this tier. TeSlaa and Bateman are touchdown-or-bust plays while Likely and Thornton are players that are not playing in every-down roles but carry enough per-target upside to matter. All four can be considered as viable one-offs as additions to game stacks around their respective games.

ISIAH PACHECO/SAMAJE PERINE/JUSTICE HILL (UPDATE: HILL HAS BEEN RULED OUT DUE TO A NECK INJURY)

These three backs are going to be involved in their respective offenses, with Pacheco and Perine coming back from extended absences and Hill seemingly the forgotten man in the Baltimore backfield. Hill already has a 28.7 DK-point game to his ledger, which came on three carries and six targets in Week 4 against the Chiefs. Perine put up 17.0 DK points on 10 opportunities in Week 8 against the Jets. Pacheco had seen a 51% snap rate or higher for the Chiefs in seven of eight healthy games before his injury. All three are clearly capable of putting up an outlier-type score in the small sample size of one game.