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- Starts/Fades: Week 9
By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Dak Prescott, DAL (at ATL)
Prescott and the rest of his Cowboys played the 49ers close for a half last week before being blown out in the third quarter. Dallas mounted a late comeback and actually had the ball, down six points, with three minutes left. Dak proceeded to throw four straight incompletions and the 49ers eventually won, 30-24.
Dallas heads to Atlanta this week as 2.5-point underdogs in the game with the highest implied point total (52.0). Dallas is dead last in the league in rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per carry, and rushing yards per game. They are tied for the least rushing TDs in the NFL (three). Their longest rush this season is somehow just 13 yards, less than half of the next-worst mark in the league.
Dak hasn't lived up to his draft status as a fantasy starter at QB so far, but if Dallas plays to anywhere near their implied team total this week, it seems extremely likely to come via their passing game. I like Dak as a back-end QB1 option in what projects to be a high-scoring game at ATL.
Fade: Bo Nix, DEN (at BAL)
Nix has been playing his best professional ball over the past month and has finished as a top-12 QB in most formats three of his past four games, including a huge, four-total-TD-game last week against the lowly Panthers.
The Broncos head to Baltimore this week as nine-point underdogs, the largest of the week. Denver is one of only a handful of teams with an implied team total below 20 points this week.
I'm usually hesitant to advise fading a QB with rushing upside who’s playing well, like Nix, because of the steady floor their rushing production can provide. This week, I happen to really like the matchups and game environments of quite a few pocket passers, and for me, that pushes Nix outside of my top 12 at the position and makes him a recommended fade in single-QB formats based on his team's low implied total.
RB
Start: Chase Brown, CIN (vs LV)
Brown (78 carries and 16 catches) and Zack Moss (74 carries and 23 catches) have a near-even split of the Bengals’ RB touches on the season. Moss seems to have a sticky role in the passing game but Brown has been more efficient with his carries and has been ramping up his role. He’s on a streak of five straight games with double-digit carries and multiple receptions.
The Bengals host the Raiders this week as touchdown favorites and have one of the highest implied team totals of the week (27.0). The Raiders are middling, at best, against the run and have given up 10 rushing TDs on the year, including six in their last three games (all losses).
Brown is a talented back with an ascending role in a strong offense and gets a plus matchup as a TD favorite at home this week against the Raiders. Play him with confidence as a RB2 in all formats. I don’t mind Moss as a Flex option in PPR leagues, either.
Fade: Rhamondre Stevenson, NEP (at TEN)
Rhamondre is coming off his top fantasy game of the season, converting 23 touches into 65 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns. Stevenson leads the Pats in TDs (five) and carries (104), and he’s third on the team in catches (18) this season. He’s been one of their few bright spots on offense outside of rookie QB Drake Maye.
New England travels to Tennessee as 3.5-point underdogs with the lowest implied team point total of the week (17.25). The Titans are allowing a league-low 265 scrimmage yards and 152 passing yards per game. Maye left last week’s win with a concussion and has not yet been cleared to play.
Stevenson’s volume and recent TD production can be hard to ignore, but I like fading him in 12-team (and shallower) formats this week in what seems likely to be an ugly game environment on the road against the Titans.
WR
Start: Jakobi Meyers, LV (at CIN)
Meyers returned to the Raiders’ lineup last week and caught six of seven targets for 52 yards and a TD in their loss to the Chiefs. Jakobi, along with rookie TE Brock Bowers, appears likely to be the focus of the Raiders’ passing game moving forward after they traded Davante Adams to the Jets.
The Raiders head to Cincinnati this week as TD underdogs in a game with a solid implied point total of 46.5. The Bengals are coming off of a lopsided loss to the Eagles last week in which their defense offered little resistance to Jalen Hurts and his talented playmakers.
Meyers is an experienced pass catcher with three straight 800-yard receiving campaigns coming into this year. He just had a solid game against a stingy KC defense and I like him as a strong Flex option this week, especially in PPR formats.
Fade: Marvin Harrison Jr., AZ (vs CHI)
Harrison had his second-most productive game as a pro in last week’s walk off win against the Dolphins, racking up a 6/111/1 line on his seven targets. His targets trailed only TE Trey McBride on the team last week.
The Cardinals host the Bears this week as one-point favorites in a game with a middling implied point total of 44.5. The Bears’ defense leads the NFL in passer rating (76.2) and TD passes (five) allowed, one being the well-documented Hail Mary from Jayden Daniels to Noah Brown last week. Chicago has been very generous to opposing TEs lately and allows 4.7 yards per carry on the ground, a bottom-third mark this season.
Despite allowing that long TD pass to end last week, you will note above that the Bears remain one of the best pass defenses in the league statistically. I’m sitting a still-inconsistent Harrison this week out of respect for what the Chicago pass defense has done against WRs this season, outside of last week’s debacle.
TE
If you are dealing with a TE injury or covering for George Kittle or Pat Freiermuth’s bye, Mike wrote up some widely available options in this week’s waiver column:
Jonnu Smith (MIA) - Faces a BUF defense that has been stingy against perimeter WRs, potentially funneling targets his way.
Mike Gesicki (CIN) - Now has three productive games when Tee Higgins has missed this year, streaming option if Tee misses another game.