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- Starts/Fades: Week 6
By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Daniel Jones, NYG (vs CIN)
Danny Dimes, often undrafted in single-QB fantasy leagues, has finished as a top-12 option in three of his five starts this season. He’s had multiple TD passes in three of his past four games and had his season high in rushing yards (38) in last week’s upset win at Seattle.
Sunday night, the Giants host the Bengals as 3.5-point home underdogs in a game with one of the highest implied point totals (48.0) of the week. Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense seem to be clicking on all cylinders at the moment, while their defense has allowed major fantasy production to opposing QBs and passing games this year, especially in their past three games against the Ravens, Panthers, and Commanders.
Giants impressive rookie WR Malik Nabers missed last week’s win with a concussion and has not yet been cleared to return. Veteran WR Darius Slayton filled in admirably for Nabers against Seattle, leading the team in all receiving categories with his 8/122/1 stat line. My assumption is that Nabers will return to the lineup this week, giving the Giants’ offense their most explosive playmaker back.
I’m playing Jones as a back-end QB1 this week against a struggling Bengals defense in what projects to be a high-scoring SNF game. While there is a worst-case scenario where Nabers sits out another game, Jones’ (and Slayton’s) performance last week leads me to believe the Giants’ offense will be successful on Sunday night with or without their star rookie WR.
Fade: C.J. Stroud, HOU (at NE)
Stroud has picked up his second NFL season right where he left off as a rookie, as one of the best QBs on the planet. Through five games this season, he's third in the league in passing yards and already has his Texans leading the AFC South by two games plus an early tiebreaker over the Colts.
Stroud and the Texans head to Foxboro as touchdown favorites over the Patriots in a game with one of the lower implied point totals (38.0) of the week. New England rookie QB Drake Maye will make his first career start behind a porous Pats offensive line that has allowed 19 QB sacks, second most in the league.
Texans superstar WR Nico Collins suffered a hamstring injury on his long TD reception last week and has since been placed on IR. He leads Houston in catches (tied for 3rd in the NFL), receiving yards (1st), and receiving TDs (T-6th).
While there’s a chance that Drake starting gives the NE offense a spark and gets this game going back and forth, I think it’s way likely to play to the low implied point total that Vegas projects it to be. I prefer to keep Stroud on benches (if feasible with byes, etc.) this week in single-QB leagues to play an option with more rushing upside or in a better projected game environment.
RB
Start: Tyjae Spears, TEN (vs IND)
The Titans are rested coming off of their Week 5 bye. Spears, a second-year RB, had his best game on the ground in the Titans’ lopsided win in Miami before the bye; he had season-bests with 15/39/1 on the ground. Veteran RB Tony Pollard leads the Titans in rushing attempts and yards, and has every game this season. Spears (12/76) and Pollard (13/87) have split the receiving work, at least statistically, evenly, through four games.
The Titans host the Colts as 2.5-point favorites this week in a game with a middling implied total (43.0). The Colts’ defense just got shredded by an otherwise struggling Jaguars offense last week and are allowing the most total yards and second-most rushing yards per game in the NFL.
This is another tough week for RB byes with Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, Aaron Jones, and Kareem Hunt missing from our lineups. This is not advice to play Spears over Pollard – I think there will be enough rushing and receiving work for both to succeed as home favorites against the most generous defense in the league. Spears is a great Flex option, especially in PPR formats.
Fade: Brian Robinson, WAS (at BAL)
Robinson has been a top-10 scoring RB in PPR formats through five weeks, and he’s scored 10+ points in each game. Last week, he scored two first-half TDs in a blowout win over the Browns but picked up a knee injury and was then rested due to a “coaching decision” in the second half according to HC Dan Quinn. While he has missed practices this week, he is apparently following a similar practice pattern to last week.
The Commanders make the short trip to Baltimore as near-TD underdogs in a game with the second-highest implied point total (51.5) of the week. These two teams, led by their dual-threat QBs, are the top two rushing offenses by yardage and are each among the league leaders in yards per carry, rushing TDs, and 20+ yard runs through five weeks.
The Ravens’ defense has been extremely stout against opposing rushing attacks but especially against RBs. Through five weeks, opposing RBs have just 240 yards and two TDs on 83 rush attempts against Baltimore, a ridiculous 2.9 yards per carry. They have yet to allow 90 total rushing yards in a game or 50 to an individual player this season.
Usually, this high-total game between two of the top offenses would have been one of my first games to look for a recommended RB start. In this case, I think B-Rob makes the most sense on fantasy benches this week against a Ravens team that is favored at home and really shutting down opposing RBs on the ground.
WR
Start: Jalen Tolbert, DAL (vs DET)
Tolbert was one of the top recommended waiver adds this week after he stepped up in an expanded role on Sunday Night Football with teammate Brandin Cooks on IR. He caught seven of 10 targets for 87 yards and the game-winning TD.
The Cowboys host the Lions in a game with one of the highest implied point totals (52.5) of Week 6. The Lions, and their stingy run defense, continue to set up as a pass funnel for opponents and have allowed some big fantasy games to opposing WRs this season. The Cowboys have attempted the second-most passes in the league (194) through five weeks.
Sometimes it can make sense to stash your shiny new waiver addition on the bench for a week to confirm they do, in fact, have that expanded role, etc. In this case, I’m getting Tolbert in lineups immediately as a high-end WR3 or Flex option for a pass-heavy Dallas offense in what projects to be a high-scoring game against the Lions.
Fade: Christian Kirk, JAX (“at” CHI, in London)
Kirk came out of the gates slowly this season, catching a single pass in each of the Jags’ first two games. Since, he's caught 19 of 26 targets for 228 years and a TD over his past three games.
This week, the Jags take on the Bears in London on Sunday morning in a game with a middling implied point total (44.5). Kirk’s teammate, pass-catching TE Evan Engram, seems likely to return this week from his hamstring injury.
The Bears’ defense has been tough on opposing passing games, and especially WRs. They've only allowed one WR to top 70 yards OR score a TD against them this season (Nico Collins did both, 8/135/1 in Week 2).
I'm leaving Kirk on fantasy benches this week, even in PPR formats, due to his challenging matchup with the Bears’ pass defense and for the possibility that Engram returns and cuts into Kirk’s recent target volume.
TE
With the current state of injuries and general lack of fantasy production at TE, I don't have recommendations for starts or fades at the position this week. If you have a reasonable TE option, not on bye, who is also healthy, they are likely a strong option to start this week.
If you are in need of a fill-in at TE, these are some suggestions from Monday's waivers column that were available in the majority of Yahoo leagues:
Cade Otton (TB) - Plays a full-time role for a pass-heavy Bucs team, and he’s caught 16 of 21 targets the past three games with 44+ yards each week.
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) - Continues to play a majority of snaps and has 15 catches from Aaron Rodgers over the past three games.