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- Starts/Fades Week 4
By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Caleb Williams, CHI (vs LAR)
Williams had a statistical breakout last week against the Colts in his third career game, passing for 363 yards and his first two career TD passes.
This week, the Bears host the Rams as three-point favorites in a game with a middling implied total (41.0). Through three weeks, the Rams’ defense is bottom-five in the league in: Points allowed, total yards allowed, and passing yards allowed (they have also struggled against the run, to be fair).
I like Williams and the Bears to build on last week’s success against a struggling Rams defense. I'm happy to start Caleb in single-QB leagues this week if I don't have an obvious stud QB to play ahead of him.
Fade: Sam Darnold, MIN (at GB)
Darnold has been a top-five scoring fantasy QB in many leagues and leads the NFL with eight passing TDs for the 3-0 Vikings.
Minnesota travels to Green Bay this week as 2.5-point underdogs in a game with a middling implied total (43.5). The Packers seem somewhat likely to get QB Jordan Love back from his knee injury, although reports indicate he would still not be at 100%. Whether Love plays or not, I think GB will be trying to control the ball (and clock) with its top-ranked running game.
Green Bay’s defense has appeared much improved under new DC Jeff Hafley. They’ve changed their scheme and poured significant offseason resources into their defensive personnel, especially at safety. Historically, the Packers have also played All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson fairly well, holding him under 60 receiving yards in five of seven career matchups (JJ went nuclear with 10-169-2 and 11-184-2 lines in the other two games, for full disclosure).
Despite his hot start and the ability to sling it to Jefferson, I’m keeping Darnold on benches in single-QB leagues this week in a road matchup against an opponent with improving defense that seems likely to want to run the ball and keep the clock moving.
RB
Start: Najee Harris, PIT (at IND)
Harris has been a steady producer on the ground for a 3-0 Steelers team focused on playing tough defense (8.7 PPG against, best in the league) and controlling the ball (second in the league in time of possession).
Najee has had either 69 or 70 yards rushing each game and could be afforded more opportunities after teammate Jaylen Warren hurt his knee in Week 3. Najee also added a season-best five targets last week.
The Steelers travel to Indy this week as slight (1.5-point) favorites in a game with a middling implied game total (40.0). Last week, the Colts played in a positive game script against the Bears and held them to 63 rushing yards as a team, but they had surrendered huge rushing production in losing efforts to both the Texans (213 rush yards, 5.3 YPC) and Packers (261 rush yards, 4.9 YPC) previously.
Najee seems likely to be the feature back this week for a run-first team favored to win. I like him as a RB2 in all formats because of his rushing floor in a good matchup, with upside for more if he is afforded more targets than normal this week in Warren’s (likely) absence.
Fade: Chuba Hubbard, CAR (vs CIN)
The Panthers were almost unrecognizable in their Week 3 win over the Raiders after making a QB change to veteran Andy Dalton, and Hubbard was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the switch, handling 21 carries and five receptions for 169 scrimmage yards and a TD, good for RB4 in PPR leagues last week.
The Panthers host the reeling, 0-3, Bengals this week as four-point underdogs in a game with one of the higher implied totals of the week (47.0). Hubbard’s talented rookie RB teammate, Jonathan Brooks, remains on short-term IR this week. Veteran Miles Sanders has been spelling Chuba for a handful of touches each game.
This might be me stubbornly sticking to my pre-season takes, but I still like the Bengals team quite a bit and still don’t like this Panthers team, at all. Cincinnati’s DEF was just carved up by rookie QB phenom Jayden Daniels and the rest of the Commanders offense last week but played fairly well in the first two games, allowing 42 total points to the Chiefs and Patriots.
I like keeping Chuba on benches in most leagues this week, if I can. In PPR leagues specifically, he does have a high-enough floor to consider as a Flex option, but I’d prefer to find an alternative RB or a WR to flex instead.
WR
Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (at DET)
JSN followed up his breakout Week 2 performance (12-117-0) by leading Seahawks WRs in snaps and routes run last week.
This week, Seattle faces Detroit on Monday Night Football in a game with one of the highest implied totals (47.0) of the week.
The Lions seem to have a solid defense overall but have given up some huge games to talented slot WRs already this year (Cooper Kupp 14-110-1, Chris Godwin 7-117-1), a role JSN plays in one of the most talented three-WR sets in the league.
JSN is an ascending player with a strong role in a good offense. He seems to match up well against the Lions defense in what is projected to be a high-scoring game. Start him as a WR2 in PPR leagues or as a Flex option in standard leagues this week.
Fade: Calvin Ridley, TEN (at MIA)
Ridley was drafted to be a starting WR for fantasy managers and leads the Titans in targets, receiving yards and has a rushing TD. However, he had a quiet Week 3 against the Packers, catching one of three targets for nine yards.
The winless Titans travel to Miami to play the Dolphins on Monday Night Football in the game with the lowest implied total of the week (36.5).
The Dolphins’ QB situation remains in flux with starter Tua Tagovailoa on IR and primary backup Skylar Thompson suffering an injury to his ribs in his start last week. Titans QB Will Levis has eight turnovers and has taken 15 sacks through three games, all Titans losses.
Even though we have a good WR coming off of a bad game with the potential for a squeaky-wheel type of situation, I’m keeping Ridley on benches this week whenever I can to avoid waiting around for him to play on MNF in what profiles as one of the least fantasy-friendly games of Week 4.
TE
With the current state of injuries and general lack of fantasy production at TE, I don't have recommendations for starts or fades at the position this week. If you have a reasonable TE option who is also healthy, they are likely a strong option to start this week.
If you are in need of a short-term fill-in at TE, here is a recommended streamer available in the vast majority of Yahoo leagues:
Stream: Noah Fant, SEA (at DET)
See JSN notes above. Fant is an athletic, pass-catching TE who is likely to operate in similar areas of the field as JSN often does. This week’s opponent, the Lions, seems likely to force QB Geno Smith into plenty of passing attempts.
Fant is coming off of his best game of the season, catching all six of his targets last week for 60 scoreless yards.