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- Starts/Fades: Week 16
By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters recently, but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Drake Maye, NEP (at BUF)
As noted in Mike’s “First Look” yesterday, Maye has at least 18 fantasy points in six of his nine starts. He’s accounted for at least one TD in every career start and shown a solid floor for a rookie QB while playing with a fairly anonymous supporting cast on offense.
The Pats head to Buffalo this week to take on MVP favorite Josh Allen and a Bills team that has tied an NFL record, scoring 30+ points in eight straight games. The Bills are two-touchdown favorites in a game with an implied point total of 46.5. The 11-3 Bills play from ahead often, and their opponents attempt over 34 passes per game against them, the seventh most in the league.
Maye gets his first career shot at the class of the AFC East in Allen and the Bills this week as a huge road underdog. If you’re in a semi-final matchup with a pocket-passing QB who is banged up or in a challenging matchup, I like Maye as a streamer who can provide a nice spot start.
Fade: Justin Herbert, LAC (vs DEN)
Herbert has nursed a number of leg injuries this season, most recently suffering ankle and thigh ailments two weeks ago in a loss to the Chiefs before suiting up in last week’s blowout loss to the Buccaneers. He began this week with a questionable tag but has already been cleared for Thursday Night Football.
The 8-6 Chargers host their division rivals, the 9-5 Broncos, tonight in a matchup between the final two AFC playoff seeds as things currently stand. The Chargers are 2.5-point favorites in a game that is tied for the third-lowest implied point total of Week 16 (42.0). The Broncos’ pass defense has been a real challenge for opposing passers this season, ranking among the league’s best in YPA allowed (6.5, third lowest), interceptions (14, T-fourth most), and sacks (49, most).
Herbert hasn’t been running as much or as effectively lately. He had a 128/2 rushing line in four November starts, but just 13 scoreless yards in three December games. I prefer to bench, or even drop Herbert in season-long, single-QB formats, than to play him on a short week against one of the league’s most challenging defenses (LAC plays at NE next week, for those needing to make a roster decision).
RB
Start: Jerome Ford, CIN (at CIN)
Ford’s teammate, Nick Chubb, broke his foot in last week’s loss and will miss the rest of the Browns’ season. Ford had a season-best 104 scrimmage yards, including a 62-yard TD run, after being afforded more opportunities in Chubb’s absence. Last season, Ford racked up over 1,100 scrimmage yards and nine total TDs for the Browns after Chubb’s season-ending knee injury early in the year.
The Browns head to their intrastate rival, the Bengals, as 7.5-point underdogs in a game with one of the highest implied point totals of the week (47.5). The Bengals’ defense remains one to attack for fantasy purposes, as they allow 366 yards per game (fourth worst) and 27.6 points per game (second worst) to opposing offenses. Cleveland has announced that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be taking over for Jameis Winston as the team’s starting QB going forward.
While I’d admittedly be more excited in this spot for Ford if Winston were still at the helm, Ford has shown a diverse skill set and the ability to play in all phases of the Browns’ scheme. I like him as a strong Flex option for fantasy managers in their playoff semi-final matchups based on his likely uptick in volume in Chubb’s absence.
Fade: Brian Robinson, WAS (vs PHI)
B-Rob missed a few whole games and parts of others with injuries earlier in the season but has been performing as a RB2 option on a per-game basis in PPR formats. He’s had 16+ carries in four of his past five games, the outlier being a loss to Dallas in Week 12 that he left early with an ankle injury before returning the following week.
The Commanders host the Eagles this week as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 45.5-point implied total. The Eagles lead the NFL in total defense (275.6 yards per game), passing defense (173.4 YPG), and scoring defense (17.6 PPG), and only five teams have conceded fewer than their nine rushing TDs allowed.
Robinson’s calling card for fantasy is his potential to rack up carries and TDs in an exciting Commanders offense. He doesn’t offer much of a passing game role, with only three multi-catch games all season (one was admittedly last week). B-Rob playing as a home underdog against a stingy Eagles defense is enough to make me look for alternative RB2 and Flex options to play over him this week.
WR
Start: Jalen McMillan, TB (at DAL)
McMillan is heating up down the stretch of his rookie season. Over the past two games, he’s caught nine of 13 targets for 134/3 and he set a new career best in receiving yards both weeks. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is among the NFL’s leaders in passing yards (258 per game, fifth) and TD passes (32, third).
Tampa Bay heads to Dallas this week on Sunday Night Football as four-point road favorites in the game with the week’s highest implied point total (48.5). Dallas is among the league’s most generous defenses, giving up 356 yards per game (seventh most) and 27.1 point per game (T-third most) this season. The Cowboys have won three of their last four Cooper Rush starts and have scored 20+ points in each of those games.
McMillan has now stacked successful games together operating as the secondary passing target for one of the top fantasy QBs in the game this year. He now goes on the road to play a generous defense in a high-total game, while the track record is admittedly short, this is the type of player and game environment I’m looking for in a Flex option for a fantasy playoff matchup.
Fade: Jerry Jeudy, CLE (at CIN)
Jeudy has been on an absolute tear over the Browns’ last five games. He’s racked up a 37/634/3 stat line over that stretch, catching passes from (newly benched) gunslinging QB Jameis Winston. As mentioned above, DTR has been named as the Browns’ starting QB moving forward.
The Browns have an implied team total of 20 points on the road in Cincy. DTR, a second-year fifth-round draft pick, has four career appearances in which he’s played significant snaps and thrown 20+ passes. In those games he has never passed for more than 165 yards in an individual game and has one TD and six INTs total. In the only other NFL game in which DTR threw multiple passes, he went 4/9 passing for 18 yards and an INT.
Jeudy is likely to have carried numerous fantasy managers to their playoffs and didn’t disappoint with another solid game last week. That being said, and through no fault of his own, I think he belongs on fantasy benches this week, even in a good matchup. With a sample size of 4+ games under his belt, I’m not willing to bet on DTR supporting any of his receivers for fantasy, until he’s shown the ability to do so.