- OWS Daily Dose
- Posts
- Starts/Fades: Week 15
By: Tony Kneepkens
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season, likely the first round of your fantasy playoffs, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Jordan Love, GB (at SEA)
Love missed two full games and half of a third before the team’s bye week, but he has performed as a top-10 fantasy QB on a per-game basis. He has multiple TD passes in seven of his 11 starts this year, and his 6.4% TD rate is tied for the fifth best in the league. GB has spread the ball around, with six Packers recording at least 25 catches and 260 receiving yards on the season.
The Packers head to Seattle for Sunday Night Football as three-point road favorites in a game with an implied point total of 46.0. It’s one of three games this week between two teams with 8+ wins. The Seahawks have been a tough pass defense this year, allowing the 10th-fewest passing yards per game, but they’re been closer to the middle of the pack in scoring defense (21.8 PPG allowed), TD passes allowed (19), and red-zone TD rate (52.2%).
Love’s big fantasy games come when he can pile up the TDs, which he does often, throwing for 2+ TD passes in 18 of his 28 career regular-season starts, including eight games with 3+. I like him to pass for multiple TDs this week in what profiles as a back-and-forth game against the Seahawks.
Fade: Baker Mayfield, TB (at LAC)
Baker has been a fantasy star for the first-place Bucs, finishing as a top-10 option in nine of his 13 starts this season. He has cooled off since losing star WR Chris Godwin to a season-ending ankle injury in Week 7, however, with three of his four worst games coming since Godwin went down.
The Bucs head to L.A. as three-point underdogs this week in a game with a 45.5 implied point total. The Chargers have a stifling defense that is among the league’s best in opponent’s passer rating (81.3, fifth best), sacks (39, fifth most), opponent’s YPA (6.6, T-second best), and points allowed per game (15.9, two points fewer than any other team allows).
A matchup with one of the league’s best defenses overall (and against QBs) is one to avoid. If you already have Baker rostered, I wouldn’t recommend dropping him, however, as he has juicy matchups at Dallas and home against Carolina to finish the fantasy playoffs.
RB
Start: Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (at AZ)
Mondre has been the focal point of the Patriots’ offense all season. He leads the team in scrimmage yards, TDs, and all major rushing categories. He’s racked up 20+ touches in four of his last six starts.
This week, the Pats head to the desert as 5.5-point underdogs against the Cardinals in a game with a 46.0 implied point total. The Cards are reeling with three straight losses and are fresh off of being steamrolled by Zach Charbonnet of the Seahawks to the tune of 193 scrimmage yards and a pair of TDs last week.
While the Patriots’ offense remains fairly underwhelming, there have been more signs of life since rookie QB Drake Maye took over the starting job mid-season. I like Stevenson as a strong RB2 option in 12-team leagues this week based on his projectable volume of touches in a matchup against an inconsistent Cardinals defense.
Fade: Isaac Guerendo & Patrick Taylor, SF (vs LAR)
Guerendo, an explosive rookie RB, had a great game last week as the 49ers’ top back. He handled nearly all of their RB opportunities and racked up 128 scrimmage yards and a pair of TDs before spraining his foot late in the game. As of this writing, he remains day-to-day with a questionable tag ahead of a division matchup with the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Taylor was the next man up after Guerendo’s foot injury and helped the 49ers cap off their victory over the Bears last week, handling seven carries for 25 yards and a TD. Taylor had 65 carries over three years for the Packers before signing with SF this offseason and mainly contributing on special teams for them so far this year. The only other RB active for SF last week was veteran Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a practice-squad call-up who has already reverted back to the P.S. this week. The team also claimed second-year RB Israel Abanikanda off of waivers but didn’t activate him last week.
The 49ers now host the Rams as three-point favorites in a game with one of the higher implied point totals of the week (48.5). The SF backfield is generally, and rightfully, viewed as a fantasy goldmine, their RB role is usually provided with an awesome combination of a friendly scheme and plenty of rushing and receiving work. This year alone, they’ve had three different RBs post a top-12 fantasy week in PPR formats, including Guerendo’s huge game last week.
The fact that SF hasn’t ruled Guerendo out already on a short week is what really complicates this situation. It could simply be gamesmanship with a division rival, but if he is truly going to play, I don’t believe it would make sense to feed him 80% of the RB work with a foot injury on a short week. If Guerendo sits, it will be tempting to plug Taylor right in as the next man up, but I don’t believe he would be best served handling a full RB workload either. My personal opinion is that Vaughn and/or Abanikanda would be used to complement Taylor and would be serious threats to cut into his workload. I’m avoiding this situation altogether in most 12-team formats on a short week to start the fantasy playoffs.
WR
Start: DeVonta Smith, PHI (vs PIT)
DeVonta returned last week from a hamstring injury to lead the Eagles with six targets and had a solid 4/37/1 line in their surprisingly narrow victory over the Panthers. Smith has missed three games to injury this year and hasn’t had more than four catches since Week 8 in what’s been a disappointing season for the one-time Heisman Trophy winner.
Philly hosts the intrastate-rival Steelers as 5.5-point favorites in a game with one of the lower implied point totals (42.5) this week. The Steelers, as usual, sport a tough defense and allow only 310 total yards per game, seventh fewest in the league. Pittsburgh is fourth best against the run, but middle of the pack against the pass. They’ve allowed three different WRs to go for at least 60 yards and TD the last two weeks while facing the Browns and Bengals.
Smith came out of last week healthy and plays an every-down role for a talented and concentrated offense. He’s exactly the type of high-upside player I want to play in my Flex spot in a fantasy playoff matchup.
Fade: Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (vs NYJ)
BTJ has been a rookie sensation for the otherwise struggling Jaguars this season. He leads the team in catches, receiving yards, and total TDs and appears to be a true building block for Jacksonville moving forward.
Jags starting QB Trevor Lawrence remains on IR with a shoulder injury that requires surgery. Backup QB Mac Jones is throwing for just 6.0 YPA and has two TDs and five INTs this year.
The Jags host the Jets this week as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with the lowest implied point total of Week 15 (40.5). The Jets’ defense is the fourth stingiest in the NFL in both passing defense and total defense. They’ve allowed just 11 passing TDs all season, tied for the fewest in the league.
Thomas is a talented rookie WR who has the chance to be one of the top players in the league at his position in due time, but I prefer to keep him on the bench this week. I can't justify starting a WR catching passes from an inefficient backup QB in a brutal matchup for opposing passing games if I have a reasonable alternative.