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- Starts/Fades: Week 14
By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Will Levis, TEN (vs JAX)
Levis threw a pair of TD passes to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine last week and now has multiple TD passes in three of his last four starts after missing a few games in the middle of the fantasy season with a shoulder injury. He’s built a nice rapport with a talented group of playmakers this year, including Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, and NWI.
Tennessee hosts the Jags and their league-worst defense this week in a game with the lowest implied point total (39.5). Normally, a mistake-prone QB in a low-total game isn’t the best place to look for a QB spot start, but we’re missing Bo Nix, Anthony Richardson, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, and C.J. Stroud from our fantasy lineups during this brutal week of byes.
Levis and the Titans’ offense have been playing well and now get the benefit of the literal best defensive matchup on a week we’re replacing as many as half of the usual starting QBs in 12-team, single-QB leagues. I like him as a back-end starter in those formats this week.
Fade: Brock Purdy, SF (vs CHI)
Purdy had a brutal showing in a blowout loss in the snow at Buffalo last week, passing for 94 scoreless yards, and he now has only four TD passes in his last five starts. At 5-7, the 49ers are shockingly in last place in the NFC West and have suffered a ton of impactful injuries this year, especially on offense, including placing their top two RBs on IR this week.
SF hosts the Bears as four-point favorites this week in a game with a middling implied point total (44.0). The Bears, playing for an interim HC, have plenty of issues of their own, but have played stingy defense all season, especially against the pass. They’ve only given up more than 23 points in a game twice all year, to the Cardinals and Vikings, and have held some strong offenses (HOU, WAS, GB, DET) to 23 points or fewer.
This season has been a truly horrific runout for Purdy and the rest of the 49ers’ offense, as they never seemed to be at full strength. Despite one of the most challenging bye weeks I can remember at the position, I’m looking for other QB options this week against a stingy Chicago pass defense.
RB
Start: Rico Dowdle, DAL (vs CIN)
Dowdle is fresh off of feasting on the woeful Giants defense on Turkey Day to the tune of 123 scrimmage yards and a TD. He has 41 carries and six targets the last two weeks and the Cowboys have won consecutive games with backup QB Cooper Rush at the helm.
Dallas hosts the Bengals this week on Monday Night Football as 5.5-point underdogs in the game with one of the highest implied point totals (49.5). The Bengals’ defense is among the worst in the league in total yards allowed (369 per game, sixth worst) and points allowed (28.3 per game, tied for second worst).
This might be too obvious on a week with six teams on bye, but RB isn’t hit as hard as some of the other positions so I wanted to highlight what seems like a great spot for Dowdle if he keeps up his robust RB role. Start him with confidence this week in a favorable primetime matchup.
Fade: Chuba Hubbard, CAR (at PHI)
Hubbard has been a revelation for the Panthers this season, racking up over 1,000 scrimmage yards and scoring eight TDs. Until QB Bryce Young started to look more competent recently, it could have been argued Chuba was the team’s literal only bright spot in an otherwise ugly season.
Chuba’s rookie RB teammate, Jonathon Brooks, made his NFL debut two weeks ago. He’s handled 11 touches across his first two games, including all of the team’s RB receiving work last week, catching all three of his targets for 23 yards.
The Panthers head to Philly this week as 12.5-point underdogs and sport the lowest implied team point total of the week (16.75). The Eagles lead the NFL in total defense, allowing under 283 yards per game.
It’s admittedly a tiny sample size, but Brooks playing more snaps each of the past two weeks and receiving all of the RB targets last week is alarming. Playing a possible platoon-type RB like Chuba without a sure receiving role and as a huge underdog on the team with the lowest implied point total of the week is not a play I’m looking to make with a playoff berth and/or playoff seeding on the line.
WR
Start: Khalil Shakir, BUF (at LAR)
Shakir leads the 10-2 Bills in catches and receiving yards this season and has 7+ targets in each of his past six starts. He’s been one of the few constants in the Buffalo passing game (outside of Josh Allen) that has rotated through bodies at WR and TE all year due to injuries and ineffectiveness. He is in the midst of a TD drought, having failed to score since Week 3.
The Bills are 4.5 point favorites at the Rams this week in a game with one of the highest implied point totals (49.5). The Rams are a middling defensive matchup, but it’s their (seemingly healthy) offense having the potential to keep up with Allen and the Bills that could help this game approach, or exceed, that lofty implied total.
It’s not as ugly as it is at QB, but six teams on bye hurts the WR position this week, too. While Shakir was probably already in consideration in most PPR formats, I think he’s a really strong Flex option even in non-PPR formats this week based on his consistent targets from the leading MVP candidate and playing in a high-total game.
Fade: Jaylen Waddle, MIA (vs NYJ)
Waddle, like much of the Miami passing game, has failed to live up to his lofty fantasy draft status from over the summer and has a disappointing 45/601/2 receiving line this year.
The Dolphins have been featuring Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jonnu Smith ahead of Waddle in their passing game this season. Waddle has bounced back a bit, of late, catching 12 of 13 targets for 197 yards and a TD over the past two weeks.
The Phins host the Jets this week as 6.5-point favorites in a game with a middling implied point total (45.0). The Jets have allowed just under 175 passing yards per game this season, the second-stingiest mark in the league.
Despite his recent success, I think Waddle is best served on fantasy benches in most formats this week due to his competition for targets in a really tough matchup for opposing passing offenses.