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- Starts/Fades: Week 10
By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Daniel Jones, NYG (at CAR)
While I believe, most weeks, we should all be starting just about any reasonable fantasy option that we have against the Panthers, I still wanted to highlight how much I love this spot for Mr. Dimes this week (again). The Panthers rank dead last in the NFL in total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and total points allowed. They’ve given up 18 TD passes against only three interceptions through nine games. Jones is coming off of a good fantasy week of his own where he accounted for three total TDs in a loss to WAS.
The Giants face the Panthers on the road this week as 6.5-point favorites with a middling implied team total (23.5). The Panthers’ defense has been generous to just about every team and QB they’ve faced, but I believe looking at rookie Bo Nix’s career-best performance against them two weeks ago (7.7 YPA, four total TDs) is a good example of how they can make even the most limited offenses look great.
Jones has some awesome rookie weapons (Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy, Theo Johnson) to pass to who all seem to be ascending talents as well as solid veteran WRs to target (Darius Slayton, WanDale Robinson) and he can make plays of his own with his legs. I like Danny Dimes as a back-end QB1 option this week with the potential for a huge dual-threat QB game against Carolina.
Fade: Kyler Murray, AZ (vs NYJ)
Kyler was drafted to be a fantasy starter at QB and he's performed as such this year for the division-leading Cardinals. He’s been a top-10 fantasy QB in most formats based on his efficient passing stats and his 350/2 rushing line, although he’s only topped 20 rushing yards once in his last four games.
The Cardinals host the Jets this week as one-point favorites in a game with a middling implied total (46.0). The Jets defense gives up the fourth-fewest total yards per game (290.8) and second-fewest passing yards per game (158.2). They’ve only allowed six passing TDs all year.
While Kyler’s rushing floor admittedly keeps him in play in even the most difficult of matchups, he only has seven carries for 25 scoreless yards in his last two games. I have him outside of my 12 QB options this week in a tough matchup, making him a recommended fade in single-QB formats.
RB
Start: Ray Davis, BUF (at IND)
Davis, a rookie fourth-rounder, appears to be carving out a standalone role in the high-scoring Bills offense after his breakout performance spelling injured starter James Cook in Week 6. Davis has averaged 55 scrimmage yards and scored a pair of TDs over the past three weeks, all Bills victories.
The Bills head to Indy this week at four-point favorites with a healthy implied team total (25.0). The Colts defense allows the second-most rushing yards per game (149.8) and the fourth-most total yards per game (383.6) to opponents this year.
With Kenneth Walker, Josh Jacobs, and Nick Chubb on their bye weeks, some fantasy managers will likely be turning to some platoon-type RB options this week. Even with Cook fully healthy ahead of him, I like Davis as a Flex option to fill out lineups based on his role in a high-scoring offense and facing a generous Colts defense.
Fade: Javonte Williams, DEN (at KC)
Williams leads the Broncos in rushing and scrimmage yards this season and he’s had pretty steady volume, handling double-digit carries and recording multiple receptions in five of his last six games despite the team consistently using three RBs in various roles most of those weeks.
The Broncos travel to KC this week as 8.5-point underdogs. Only the Patriots and Titans have lower implied team totals than Denver’s (16.75). The Chiefs’ defense is among the stingiest in the league, allowing just 83.9 rushing yards (third best) and 293.6 total yards per game (fifth best).
While Javonte’s volume has been reliable, there are too many red flags for me to ignore this week. We have a timeshare RB playing on the road as a big underdog with a low implied team total against a stingy defense. I'm looking for other options this week if I have a reasonable alternative.
WR
Start: Jauan Jennings, SF (at TB)
Jennings appears to be healthy coming out of the 49ers’ bye week and seems likely to return to the lineup this week for the first time since teammate Brandon Aiyuk’s season-ending knee injury. Star dual-threat RB Christian McCaffrey also seems likely to return to the SF lineup, in some capacity.
This week, the 49ers head to Tampa Bay as 5.5-point favorites in one of the highest implied-point-total games on the slate (51.0). The Bucs’ defense allows 255.9 passing yards and 386.7 total yards per game, which are both the third-most generous in the league.
I like Jennings as a back-end WR2 in PPR formats or a Flex play in standard leagues this week based on his role in a good SF offense and an attractive matchup with a porous Tampa Bay pass defense.
Fade: DeAndre Hopkins, KC (vs DEN)
Hopkins broke out, in a big way, for his new team last week with a huge 8/86/2 stat line in the Chiefs’ OT win over the Bucs. His nine targets were second on the team to Travis Kelce and more than the next two KC WRs combined.
As mentioned above, KC hosts Denver this week as 8.5-point favorites. The game has a low-to-middling implied point total (41.5). The Denver defense is among the league’s best in total yards allowed (295.2, sixth fewest) and passing yards allowed (186.6, also sixth fewest). Denver has been especially tough on opposing WRs and TEs, allowing five opposing pass catchers to top 70 receiving yards in a game against them all season.
Hopkins remains an awesome talent and now has the benefit of playing with the best QB of his career in Patrick Mahomes. If you held onto him through his trade to KC, or scooped him off of waivers after, you should be thrilled. That being said, I prefer to stash him on benches this week against a tough opponent that seems willing and able to limit fantasy production to opposing pass catchers.
TE
As usual, if you have a reasonable TE option who is also healthy, they are likely a strong option to start. This week, we are missing three of the best at the position due to bye weeks: Brock Bowers, David Njoku, and Tucker Kraft.
If you are in need of a short-term fill-in at TE, my suggested streamer of the week probably won’t shock you if you’ve been reading our Daily Dose regularly the last couple of weeks:
Stream: Mike Gesicki, CIN (at BAL)
Gesicki had a monster 5/100/2 game last week and continues to thrive in a secondary pass-catching role this season whenever WR Tee Higgins is out of the Bengals’ lineup. Higgins has continued to miss practice this week with a quad injury and has been listed as doubtful. The Bengals play at Baltimore on Thursday Night Football.
Gesicki remains available in more than half of Yahoo leagues. He’s a great spot start in the game with the highest implied point total of the week (53.0) against a Ravens team allowing the most passing yards per game this season (280.9).