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OWS Fam,
In today’s Daily Dose we dive into the NFC West.
Over the next 6 days we will be delivering the final 6 divisions to your inbox.
Monday: NFC South
Tuesday: NFC North
Wednesday: AFC East
Thursday: AFC West
Friday: AFC South
Saturday: AFC North
Find the NFC East here: https://owsdailydose.beehiiv.com/p/nfc-east-team-previews
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Team Previews are written by Mike Johnson
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Drew Petzing returns as the Cardinals offensive coordinator this season after leading the Cardinals 21st ranked DVOA offense in 2023.
Defense: Head coach Jonathan Gannon has a defensive background and will look to turn around an Arizona defense that allowed 20 or more points in 15 of 17 games last year.
Personnel Changes ::
Kyler Murray is back as Arizona’s franchise quarterback in 2024 after coming back from a torn ACL midway through last season. Murray played well and will look to regain his elite form this year.
James Conner had a strong season and will return to lead the Cardinals backfield in 2023. Third-round pick Trey Benson from Florida State is expected to contribute and potentially challenge Conner’s hold on the backfield.
The Cardinals WR room will look very different in 2024 and should have more clarity on roles. #4 overall draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. should immediately be the top option in the passing game, with Michael Wilson providing a big-bodied target on the other side and Greg Dortch manning the slot.
Trey McBride was arguably the biggest bright spot of the Cardinals 2023 season. He will enter his third season as one of the top players in his position in the league.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
LAR x2, SF x2, SEA x2
NFC North (4)::
@ GB, @ MIN, vs. CHI, vs. DET
AFC East (4)::
@ MIA, @ BUF, vs. NYJ, vs. NE
Other (3)::
@ CAR, vs. LAC, vs. WAS
Bull Case ::
Kyler Murray looked very good to end the 2023 season and had the Cardinals playing relatively well down the stretch with wins over playoff teams Philadelphia and Pittsburgh during December. Arizona could build off that strong finish and turn things around quickly, as they seem to have pieces in place. Marvin Harrison Jr. presents an immediate game-changer on the perimeter and pushes everyone else on the offense into roles more appropriate for their skill sets::
Second-year WR Michael Wilson is a solid player but was never going to have consistent success as a focal point.
Greg Dortch has been highly productive whenever he has been given opportunities and should now have more room than ever in the middle of the field working out of the slot with defenses having to account for Harrison, McBride, and Murray.
Trey McBride had a terrific sophomore season but was often stymied by opposing defenses who sold out to stop him with no relevant perimeter threats to punish them. Harrison’s presence should keep that from happening.
The Cardinals have a solid running game and ranked #1 in PFF rushing grade in 2023. They have a dynamic centerpiece at wide receiver, a dynamic dual-threat QB, and a high-end tight end (something that has become common among the top offensive teams in the league). They have all the pieces in place to make a big jump offensively and benefit from a very favorable schedule.
Bear Case ::
The Cardinals are going to be a better team in 2024. However, for our purposes, that doesn’t mean they are locked in as a good bet. The “easier” schedule could keep them from needing to open things up in many games, and their conservative tempo and play calling, along with an improved defense, could leave this team in a lot of “grind it out” 20-17 types of games. The ADP’s of their top four skill players are in the 2nd, 4th, 7th, and 7th rounds. That is a lot of draft capital for an offense to support, especially one that may not try to be aggressive all the time.
The optimism around the Cardinals is warranted, and their offense is likely to be good, but the associated cost seems to be pricing them all for their upside. The addition of MHJ obviously helps them on paper, but if any of their key players miss some time, it will affect the entire offense to a significant degree. Another negative data point is the strength of their division, with the 49ers and Rams having strong defenses coming off playoff appearances and the Seahawks having hired arguably the top defensive coach in the league from 2023. This is a team that we need to be able to separate “real football” from fantasy football and be cost-sensitive when evaluating.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
Arizona is a team that I expect to be far higher on than the market in 2024. The pieces are all there, and the tone for competing was set in Gannon’s first year as head coach. They also benefit from a “last place” schedule, as they will face the Panthers, Chargers, and Commanders. It would not shock me to see Arizona make the playoffs in 2024, and I believe they will easily beat their current “win total” line of 6.5. Things are looking up::
Kyler Murray is currently the QB7, being drafted in the early 7th round. I think this is a “fair” price for him, and I’ll definitely have some exposure, but not necessarily a screaming bargain considering the ADPs of most of the top QBs are in the 4th to 6th rounds now.
James Conner had a great 2023 season. That being said, he turns 29 in May and has new competition in Trey Benson while his ADP is multiple rounds higher this year than it was last year. He’s going to be a “fade” for me, while Benson will be a target in the 10th round or later.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is a terrific player and highly deserving of all the praise he received entering the league. Kyler Murray showed early in his career that he is willing to pepper an elite wide receiver with targets. MHJ has a mid-2nd round ADP and I will be drafting him aggressively in the second round of drafts.
Trey McBride is a player that I expect to continue playing at a very high level, but his 4th round ADP feels a bit rich for me. More specifically, his draft position relative to his peers feels relevant as he is going a round before Andrews, Pitts, and Kincaid….and multiple rounds before guys like George Kittle and Evan Engram….plus guys like Hockenson and Goedert are currently undervalued much later. All that said, on rosters where I take McBride, I will also try to draft Murray. If he is paying off a 4th round ADP as a top-3 TE, then Murray is probably smashing.
Greg Dortch is very intriguing to me as a late-round wide receiver with upside. He provides nice weekly contributions, and if MHJ or McBride ever misses time, he could post some big games thanks to heavy volume.
Mid-August Update ::
Kyler Murray reportedly looks terrific in camp another year removed from his ACL injury and the horizontal raid offense that Kliff Kingsbury had him in. This appears to be the best set of skill players Murray has had to work with in his career.
James Conner continues to get glowing remarks from the coaching staff and could be in store for a monster workload if he stays healthy and no other Arizona RBs can separate from the bunch.
After a bunch of post-draft hype for Trey Benson, the excitement has cooled some as his standing among Arizona backup RBs is not even clear at this point. He is a better pick in playoff-style contests than he is in cumulative scoring contests.
Trey McBride should remain one of the top tight ends in the league despite increased target competition. He should have better matchups and more scoring opportunities while the Cardinals’ pass rate should rise as well.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been justifying the hype with his performance to date. He creates elite separation for someone with his size which, along with his dimensions, speed, and ball skills, gives him all the tools to be one of the best.
Greg Dortch continues to impress and Michael Wilson has also taken another step forward. Both should have some spike weeks but will also have some true “duds” as they deal with the target competition this team appears likely to have.
All of the guys listed above have had a ton of praise the last few weeks and are being pumped up by beat writers and their coaches. They may all truly be playing great, but there is also a chance that this is a sign that the Cardinals’ defense may struggle a lot this season. This makes Arizona a sneaky team to bet on as a whole based on the potential that they are involved in a lot of shootouts.
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LOS ANGELES RAMS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: This is still Sean McVay’s show.
Defense: Raheem Morris is now the Falcons head coach with Chris Shula, entering his eighth season with the Rams, taking over as defensive coordinator after serving as the linebackers coach and pass rush coordinator in 2023.
Personnel Changes ::
Matthew Stafford looked rejuvenated in 2023 and will be back under center for the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo joined the Rams to backup Stafford this offseason.
Kyren Williams returns as the lead running back after a breakout season in 2023. Highly touted third-round pick Blake Corum will provide some much-needed depth at the position and perhaps cut into Williams’ workload.
Puka Nacua’s sensational rookie season gives the Rams one of the more dynamic WR duos in the league, along with Cooper Kupp. Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell are next in line at the position.
Tyler Higbee suffered a devastating knee injury in the playoffs, leaving second-year tight end Davis Allen and free agent acquisition Colby Parkinson to lead the position.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
ARI x2, SEA x2, SF x2
NFC North (4)::
vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET
AFC East (4)::
vs. MIA, vs. BUF, @ NE, @ NYJ
Other (3)::
@ NO, vs. LVR, vs. PHI
Bull Case ::
The Rams were the key to success in Best Ball in 2023, with Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua being key factors to many teams making a deep run. Generally speaking, when players are drafted in the 15th round or later and end up finishing top-5 at their positions, they are going to have a pretty high win rate. Those two, in addition to Cooper Kupp, give the Rams a terrific group of skill players and account for the majority of the team’s usage and production. Sean McVay’s incredible offensive mind has an entire offseason to plan new ways to use his versatile weapons, and the way the Rams utilize various formations and motions to get their guys open makes it nearly impossible for opponents to truly take away what they want to do. The NFC West is now filled with four very capable offenses, and there is a chance that many of the defenses (including the Rams) will take a step back, opening up the potential for the division to be a hotbed for shootouts. All-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired this offseason, which will leave a gaping hole in their defense that forces them to chase points often.
Bear Case ::
The Rams offense is extremely fun on paper and when everyone is healthy. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are in the twilight of their careers, however, and injuries to their bodies are starting to add up. If Stafford were to miss time, we can’t expect Jimmy Garoppolo to operate at the same level. He doesn’t have the same experience with McVay’s system, and he doesn’t have the same arm talent. Kupp, meanwhile, may not be the same player he once was, but his importance to the offense is as high as ever. He has transitioned into the WR2 for the Rams seamlessly, and his elite route running and hands will make teams pay for focusing on Nacua and the running backs. Given the injuries that continue to plague him in recent years, it is hard to expect a full season from Kupp, casting a bit of a shadow on the expectations for the whole team.
While it seems unlikely that the Rams will drop off to the same extent they did in 2022, it also wouldn’t be a complete surprise. We know at some point, the “old guard” is going to be gone from their team, with Aaron Donald already being the first one out the door. The optimist in me likes to think we are a couple of years off, but things could turn ugly really quickly if offensive injuries/age mix with a big step back from the defense.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The Rams offense needs to stay healthy to maximize their returns this season. I realize that can be said on some level for any NFL team, but it is especially true for the Rams. Stafford can make this offense elite if he has the horses around him. He could also get torn up if the defense puts them in too many come-from-behind situations, and he loses a weapon or two. That being said, each player has specific things to consider when rostering them in Best Ball. My favorite approaches to the Rams in Best Ball drafts::
Matthew Stafford failed to score 20 fantasy points in his first nine games of 2023. After that, he scored 20+ fantasy points in 5 of his last seven games. He did not score 30 points in any game in 2023. It probably isn’t a coincidence that Stafford’s strong run to end the season coincided with all of Kyren/Puka/Kupp being healthy. To put it simply, Stafford’s playing style isn’t conducive to truly massive upside and he needs a fully loaded deck to be more than a replacement level fantasy asset. Stafford himself has dealt with a lot of injuries and presents some level of risk. Currently being drafted in the 12th round, he is a fine pick but not one you have to force a stack with, as we saw plenty of games last year where Puka or Kupp put up a big number while Stafford had a pedestrian game. Try to pair him with volatile dual-threat QBs to maximize the value of his consistency.
Kyren Williams will undoubtedly be a hot topic all summer after setting the fantasy world on fire in 2023. The drafting of Blake Corum casts doubt on whether he will maintain his incredible usage this year. He is a guy I am OK drafting later in the second round, but he is probably someone I won’t get a ton of if his ADP stays near the 1/2 turn….mainly because I want to target WRs in that range.
Blake Corum is an elite handcuff who would immediately be an RB1 any week that Kyren misses.
Puka Nacua is in a big group of wide receivers who will be drafted near the 1/2 turn and I expect to be heavily invested once again. I do not think his 2023 was a fluke.
Cooper Kupp played in 13 games (including playoffs) in 2023. He scored 20+ PPR points in three of those games. That is a stark drop from the rate we saw in past years. Seeing where his ADP is early in the draft season, I probably won’t have too much exposure to him as there are some guys being drafted after him that are on the upswings of their career while Kupp is trending the other way.
Davis Allen will be a favorite late-round dart throw for me as a young tight end on a good offense who could have a big role, with Tyler Higbee dealing with a bad knee injury.
Mid-August Update ::
Kyren Williams is back on the field and is reportedly in line to resume a featured-back role. Blake Corum will act as his direct backup and will take some of the work off Kyren’s plate to ease his workload and improve durability. If Kyren ever misses time, Corum is a top-10 RB in any week.
Tyler Higbee is still not cleared from his ACL injury and could miss at least the first part of the season. Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen will fight it out in the preseason to see who will operate as the TE1 for the Rams to start the season.
The Rams’ wide receivers will of course be led by Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, with Demarcus Robinson operating as the WR3.
Rookie Jordan Whittington is reportedly challenging Tutu Atwell for the WR4 role. That will be another position battle to watch throughout the rest of preseason.
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is now with the Bears. He was replaced by Ryan Grubb, who was previously the OC for the Washington Huskies high flying offense for the last two seasons.
Defense: Long time head coach Pete Carroll transitioned to a front office position this offseason. The Seahawks hired former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald to replace him. Macdonald will look to implement his aggressive and complex defensive scheme with a Seattle team that has had a conservative approach for a long time.
Personnel Changes ::
Geno Smith returns as the top QB for Seattle, with Sam Howell now in town as his backup after a trade from the Commanders.
Kenneth Walker should still lead the backfield, with Zach Charbonnet likely to become more involved in his second season.
The Seahawks WR group is still headlined by DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Noah Fant projects for a bigger role this season thanks to the departures of Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
ARI x2, LAR x2, SF x2
NFC North (4)::
vs. MIN, vs. GB, @ CHI, @ DET
AFC East (4)::
vs. BUF, vs. MIA, @ NE, @ NYJ
Other (3)::
@ ATL, vs. NYG, vs. DEN
Bull Case ::
Ryan Grubb was the offensive coordinator for Washington for two seasons, and during that time, his team scored 30+ points in 75% of their games. Obviously, the Pac-12 is a different animal than the NFL….but it is still encouraging to see him come in with such encouraging recent results. Seattle had a somewhat methodical approach on the offensive side of the ball in 2023 and also had a conservative defensive approach. Those factors led to Seattle finishing dead last in the NFL in offensive plays per game while facing the most plays per game in the league. Said another way, the Seahawk’s defense would “give” their opponents easy looks underneath that extended drives in exchange for limiting their opponents’ big plays. The philosophical changes on both sides of the ball have the potential to create a different animal entirely for the Seahawks in 2024.
Head coach Mike Macdonald brings a defensive scheme with more complex looks that create more sacks and turnovers but also make them more susceptible to big plays by their opponents. This is great for fantasy, as when successful, the defense will create more short fields and scoring opportunities for them. Likewise, when they get burned and give up big plays, the offense needs to pick up the pace and be more aggressive. Add to that an offensive playcaller who led the NCAA’s leading passing attack and a WR trio that rivals anyone in the league, and you have the recipe for an entirely different feel for Seahawks games in 2024. All of the Seahawk’s skill players are being drafted later this year than they were last year, yet the chances of them having spiked weeks and/or exceeding expectations for the season have gone up.
Bear Case ::
Change can be good. Change can also be hard. And, many times, change can take time. For the 2024 Seahawks, the scary part of all of this change is that a different philosophy on both sides of the ball may take some time to adjust to. Geno Smith’s rejuvenated career has been a great story, but he turns 34 this season and took a step back in 2023. The NFC West is no joke, and the Seahawks will also have some tough games against the NFC North and AFC East. It’s very possible that things are rocky early for Seattle, and they get knocked off track. In that scenario, do they bench Geno and give Sam Howell a chance, either hoping for a spark or to kick the can to next year and hope to draft a franchise QB in 2025? Seattle doesn’t seem like they have enough firepower to make a serious deep playoff run this year, so it wouldn’t be shocking for them to start looking ahead early. Instability at QB and difficulty for the defensive personnel adjusting to a complex scheme increase the likelihood of the season playing out that way, which also raises the risk of these players being shut down with injuries and/or the Seahawks offense struggling to get their feet under them in 2024.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
Seattle is one of the more interesting teams to evaluate for 2024 because they have so much stability in their personnel but have a complete overhaul in their coaching staff. Also, they had a relatively successful season in 2024, as they finished just out of the playoffs and had a winning record. Usually, when you have a complete coaching staff overhaul, you are dealing with a team that has significantly underperformed. All of it makes for an intriguing situation with a wide range of outcomes::
Geno Smith was the QB5 in total points just two seasons ago, has three very good wide receivers, and a new OC that loves to chuck the rock. At his 15th-round price tag, he seems like a terrific QB2 target. Once the NFL schedule is released, I will try to draft him on teams where my QB1 has an earlier bye week, as that will reduce the risk of Smith being benched for Howell when I need him.
Speaking of Howell, on Draftkings and Drafters, we get 20 rounds. When Howell is on the field, he can really put up some numbers, as we saw last season in DFS. Since he is a backup, he’s available in the last round of every draft. You can pair him with Geno to lock up the starting QB spot for the Seahawks, regardless of how things play out. Or you could just take a shot on him as your QB3 on a team with a shakier first couple of QBs, knowing that his upside could help your roster.
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet shared the workload more towards the end of last season. Both are talented backs and the presence of each of them keeps the expectations of the other in check. I like both of them at cost, as they seem likely to perform at a level similar to where they are being drafted but if either one gets hurt then the other would smash their ADP. Obviously, given the similar situations/outlooks for both, I prefer the cheaper one.
DK Metcalf is entering the prime years for wide receivers, and I believe he could be in store for a career year. Tyler Lockett seems to be approaching the twilight of his career, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like a solid player but not on Metcalf’s level. Meanwhile, Metcalf will have a more aggressive offensive coach than he has had thus far in his career. Despite his incredible physical traits, his career has not been filled with big spike weeks like you would expect. I think that changes this year, and we will see him approach his full form.
Lockett and JSN are “fine” options for me. Although I am not as high on them as I am on Metcalf, both have seen their prices decrease this season while finding themselves in better situations. I don’t feel like I need to force them onto rosters, but I won’t be avoiding them either unless their ADPs rise significantly.
Noah Fant has always been talented but has dealt with bad team situations and shared the tight-end role due to offensive philosophies throughout his career. He should finally have a full-time role in 2024 in his age-26 season, when tight ends historically start to hit their stride. Seattle will pay Fant $12 million in 2024 and they didn’t do that to not have him heavily involved. He will be one of my highest owned tight ends this year.
Mid-August Update ::
Sam Howell reportedly has struggled to start training camp. It seems unlikely Geno Smith will lose his job to Howell this year without an injury.
Kenneth Walker seems to have established himself as the main option in the RB room, relegating Zach Charbonnet to a backup role. Walker’s skill set appears to be a perfect fit with the team’s new offense.
No surprises so far among pass catchers for the Seahawks. The most notable thing has been the consistent drum beat around Noah Fant, who’s completing his recovery from a foot injury, as a full-time player. A career year seems likely at this point.
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Offensive guru Kyle Shanahan returns for his eighth season as the 49ers head coach.
Defense: Steve Wilks was relieved of his defensive coordinator duties shortly after the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Nick Sorensen was promoted from defensive backs coach and will now call the shots on defense.
Personnel Changes ::
Any questions about the 49ers QB situation are gone after Brock Purdy’s elite sophomore season. Josh Dobbs is now the backup and would be highly intriguing if thrust into the starting role with this system and weapons.
Christian McCaffrey was the 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year and is showing no signs of slowing down. The 49ers also added physical freak RB Isaac Guerendo in the 4th round of the NFL Draft.
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are currently both still on the team, although Aiyuk wants a new contract and both players have been mentioned in trade rumors in recent weeks. The 49ers also added WR Ricky Pearsall with the 31st pick in the NFL Draft. He would operate as the WR3 or WR4 if everyone returns, while having big upside if one of Aiyuk/Deebo are moved.
Last season, George Kittle made it through an entire season injury-free for the first time for the first time in five years.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
LAR x2, ARI x2, SEA x2
NFC North (4)::
@ GB, @ MIN, vs. CHI, vs. DET
AFC East (4)::
@ MIA, @ BUF, vs. NE, vs. NYJ
Other (3)::
@ JAX, @ MIN, vs. TB
Bull Case ::
San Francisco should win their division again and be a top contender in the NFC. If their defense takes a step back, they could also be forced into a faster-paced offense with more tempo and aggression. Said another way, there is still room for this team to grow in terms of fantasy output. Brock Purdy is young and should continue to evolve his game. The addition of Pearsall and the emergence at the end of last season by Jauan Jennings makes this team even more dynamic and gives them more ways to attack defenses. Ever since the addition of CMC and the insertion of Purdy at QB, the 49ers offense has been a juggernaut, and their outlook shows no signs of slowing down.
The 49er’s schedule is filled with potential shootout dates against offensive powerhouses in the NFC North, AFC East, and within their division – while they also have potentially high-scoring affairs on the schedule against the Jaguars, Vikings, and Bucs, who are all loaded with offensive talent. CMC and Kittle’s ages are starting to get up there, and they may not be at their “peaks” anymore, but both are still playing at a very high level, while Purdy/Aiyuk/Deebo should just keep getting better.
Bear Case ::
A big part of the 49ers dominant offensive season in 2023 was their ability to keep all their key players healthy. The only significant time missed was by Deebo Samuel during a three-game stretch, which was the toughest part of the season. The 49er’s offense also struggled a bit in the playoffs, as they were lucky to escape against both the Packers and Lions on their way to the Super Bowl. Obviously, they had a great season, but considering the immense costs of investing in this offense, there is also a great deal of risk.
The NFL is a fragile and unforgiving place. Team windows of dominance open and shut extremely fast, and all it takes is an injury or two to start the snowball effect. Considering how well they ran on the injury front last season and how dependent they’ve been on keeping everyone healthy to perform at an elite level, from a probability standpoint, it would seem that rockier days are ahead. If Aiyuk or Deebo gets traded in the offseason, that would be the first big change for their personnel, and despite investing a first-round pick at WR, we would have to expect a step back in production if they lose a stud. If both things happen – a trade and a significant injury – suddenly, the 49ers “all-star” lineup looks a lot less intimidating. Kyle Shanahan is a stud offensive coach, and they have too many stars to truly “fail” as an offense, but the path to underperformance is pretty clear to see the risk for.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The 49ers offense should continue humming for as long as they can stay healthy. When drafting Best Ball teams, sometimes the simplest thing you can do when on the clock is select the guy in the best offensive situation. I have a feeling I will be selecting a lot of 49ers players this summer due to that thought process.::
Brock Purdy is a fine pick at his ADP. He had eight games of 20+ points in 16 starts last regular season while failing to score 30 fantasy points in scoring formats that don’t give yardage bonuses. Barring injury, he’s unlikely to hurt you where he is being drafted. He is also unlikely to drastically outproduce his draft position. He is the quintessential “safe” pick and makes sense to me as someone you take as your QB1 and then draft some cheap young QBs with upside.
CMC is a stud, but I likely won’t have much of him. I was lower than the market on him last season and survived it. A year and 400 touches later, I will be focused on WRs at the top of drafts for roster construction reasons. I don’t fault anyone for taking CMC, but I won’t have much, if any, of him.
Aiyuk and Deebo are both going to cost you a second or early third-round pick this year. I can’t justify picking both, but I will probably leave a lot of drafts with at least one of them. That being said, early in the draft window (May through June), I may draft them together when I have the opportunity in case Aiyuk does get traded to a different team, which would improve the target outlooks of both players and make it feasible that both of them meet/beat their ADPs.
George Kittle’s ADP has dropped this season to the 6th/7th round despite a solid performance and improved health in 2023. This is likely due to the influx of higher end TEs who people are valuing over him and the fact that he is viewed as the 4th option for his team. If/when any of his teammates misses time, he will smash this draft cost, however. I am buying Kittle and expect to have more of him than any other 49ers player.
Mid-August Update ::
Rookie Isaac Guerendo will miss most, if not all, of the preseason due to a hamstring injury. This leaves Elijah Mitchell, who’s dealing a hamstring issue of his own as of mid-August, and Jordan Mason as the favorites to back up CMC at running back. Mitchell has a veteran advantage, but Mason has received glowing remarks from his coaches this offseason, and his youth and smashmouth style give him a lot of upside. Mason is one of my favorite 19th- or 20th-round picks at the moment.
Brandon Aiyuk is still not practicing as he lobbies for a new contract, and although his representatives and the team continue discussing a long-term deal, the parameters of a trade with the Steelers are also in place. Aiyuk being traded would result in him ending up on a worse offense. However, that negative would likely be overcome by the fact that he could finish among the league leaders in targets after averaging only 110 targets over the past two seasons. Aiyuk’s ADP continues to drop the longer he does not practice, but I am buying him at reduced cost as a bet on his talent winning out wherever he ends up playing.
If Aiyuk were traded, Deebo Samuel would become a top-15 overall player and George Kittle would be a clear top-five tight end.
Ricky Pearsall and Juwan Jennings would see their stock rise significantly if Aiyuk leaves as well. Pearsall can be had at a bargain price right now after missing some time to start camp.
Christian McCaffrey is already an elite player, but he may gain even more value if Aiyuk gets shipped out. This is because the team would likely have games stay close more frequently, resulting in fewer blowouts where CMC loses touches late in the game.