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- NFC West Midseason Recap
By Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)
Standings after Week 11:
Cardinals 6-4
Rams 5-5
Seahawks 5-5
49ers 5-5
ARIZONA CARDINALS
General Notes ::
Kyler Murray is playing perhaps the best football of his career and has the Cardinals in control of the NFC West.
James Conner has stayed healthy all season and has at least 17 opportunities in eight of his 10 games played, including 20 per game over the last month.
Trey McBride does not have a receiving touchdown yet this season despite ranking third in the league in receptions, yards, and targets at his position. That will likely regress and he is in position for a great second half of 2024.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has played very well this season and his presence has opened up the Arizona offense, but he has not been targeted over seven times in a game since Week 3.
Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are the other Cardinals WRs who see the field often, but they have very limited and low-value roles while everyone is healthy.
Rookie RB Trey Benson has been given significant playing time in blowouts the last two weeks and looked very good in both instances. He would be an instant RB1 if Conner were to miss time and should be added if he is available.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Cardinals’ offense has been very good this year and “solid” is kind of what comes to mind. They aren’t breaking off huge plays very often (so far), but are pretty consistent in being able to move the ball and stay competitive. Their two losses by significant margins were against the Commanders in a game they did not have McBride and against the Packers in a game in which Harrison was injured early. As long as everyone is healthy, this is a unit that is really starting to gel and hit its stride, as they have averaged 29 points per game over their last three outings.
Looking Ahead ::
Arizona has an extremely friendly schedule ahead for both real-life and fantasy football purposes. They have a tough matchup against the Vikings in Week 13, but otherwise their other five remaining games are all against middling-to-poor defenses. As Harrison enters the second half of his rookie season where we have seen so many high-profile WRs take off, we could be in store for exactly that from him as well. McBride’s touchdown variance should correct itself soon as well, and Murray is probably a top-8 rest-of-season QB, if not higher.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Patriots
Run Defense DVOA -- 28th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 31st
Week 16 -- at Panthers
Run Defense DVOA -- 32nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 30th
Week 17 -- at Rams (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 20th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 22nd
LOS ANGELES RAMS
General Notes ::
Matthew Stafford has been flat out dealing when he has his full onslaught of weapons, with four TD passes apiece in two of his last four games.
RB Kyren Williams is having another very good season, but he has been more dependent on TDs to have big games than many other high-profile RBs.
Rookie RB Blake Corum has become more involved as the season progresses and may continue to cut into the playing time of Williams slightly. He would be an RB1 if Williams ever misses time.
Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both locked-in WR1’s regardless of matchup for as long as they stay healthy.
Demarcus Robinson had consecutive games with two TDs, but is a fragile weekly starter.
The Rams are playing multiple TEs and giving them very little usage.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Rams’ offense for the first half of the season was basically a different team than what they are now, as the absences of Nacua and Kupp changed everything about the aggressiveness and efficiency of their offense. In Week 11 against a Patriots team that plays heavy man coverage, Stafford diced them up and showed off his elite WR duo. Williams is averaging over a yard less per carry this season and is being targeted less frequently in the passing game. The Rams’ offense was built around their running game, which opened up passing concepts for many years. Now they appear to be dependent on the passing game’s success getting things going to create opportunities for them to run the ball effectively.
Looking Ahead ::
The Rams’ remaining schedule is not soft nor is it impossible. They are a team that is better than their 5-5 record indicates and they are probably the healthiest they have been all season. If Kupp and Nacua can both stay healthy, this is a team that can go on a run. Their offensive line is improving and their defense has had some really solid outings recently, albeit mostly against weaker offensive lines. The next three weeks will be critical for the Rams as they face the NFC East-leading Eagles in Week 12 and the AFC-leading Bills in Week 14, with a road game against the upstart Saints (who will be coming off their bye week) sandwiched between them in Week 13. They need to survive this upcoming stretch to give themselves a shot down the stretch, as they close the year with three games against division opponents over the last four weeks. The Rams should be in contention until the final week, which will keep all of their key skill players relevant for us for fantasy.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at 49ers (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 19th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 3rd
Week 16 -- at Jets
Run Defense DVOA -- 24th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 20th
Week 17 -- vs Cardinals (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 12th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 12th
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
General Notes ::
Geno Smith willed the Seahawks to a win over the 49ers last week to keep them in contention for the division or a wild-card spot.
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker’s role has been cut back a bit and he gets about a 2/3 to 1/3 split over Zach Charbonnet.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is heating up late in his second season and he and DK Metcalf have emerged as the clear alphas of this offense, leaving veteran Tyler Lockett in a complementary role.
TE Noah Fant has missed multiple weeks with a groin injury and rookie AJ Barner has filled in as the starting tight end.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Seahawks started the year 3-0 with wins over soft competition before dropping four of their next six games. They came out of their bye and pulled off a road upset of the 49ers in what felt like a game that may have saved their season. This offense has had its ups and downs this year as the offensive line has had significant struggles that have resulted in an inefficient running game and an inconsistent passing game. Walker, JSN and Metcalf are the centerpieces of this offense and will need to make big plays for them to win games. Geno Smith has shown an ability to make plays with his legs when needed as well and is one of the more underrated QBs in the league.
Looking Ahead ::
The Seahawks have a very competitive schedule ahead of them but have a lot of control of their own destiny. They play the division-leading Cardinals twice in the next three weeks, which will obviously have a huge impact on how their season plays out. Lose both of those matchups, and they won’t have any shot at the division. Win both, and they will probably be in first place entering Week 15. The Seattle defense has not been especially strong this year, so it is unlikely the Seahawks will blow many teams out or control many games. The offense is third in the league in pass rate over expectation for the season, so the combination of a defense that keeps opponents in games and an aggressive offensive approach could breed some shootouts down the stretch for Seattle considering the strong schedule of offenses they will be facing.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Packers
Run Defense DVOA -- 18th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 15th
Week 16 -- vs Vikings
Run Defense DVOA -- 1st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 1st
Week 17 -- at Bears
Run Defense DVOA -- 31st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 9th
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
General Notes ::
Brock Purdy has scored at least 19 fantasy points in five straight games despite a constantly changing group of skill players around him due to mounting injuries.
Christian McCaffrey has been back for two games now and has played over 90% of snaps during that time while seeing 22 opportunities per game.
Tight end George Kittle is dealing with a hamstring injury, but he is the TE1 in points per game this year.
WR Deebo Samuel has one game with at least 12 fantasy points since Week 2. He missed Week 3 with a calf injury, so it is fair to wonder if he is dealing with something.
Jauan Jennings has emerged as a high-end WR option for the 49ers with a couple of huge games and 11 targets in each of his last two outings since returning from injury.
Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall’s role will fluctuate week to week, but he will likely have another big game or two before the season is over.
Offensive Outlook ::
The 49ers’ offense has struggled to find itself this season, in large part due to the revolving door of players that are on the field. Last year they were blessed with good fortune on the injury front, but this year every one of their starting skill players has missed multiple games. Purdy has played better than the numbers suggest and is making a lot of plays that critics in the past said he wasn’t capable of. At full strength, this is still a very good offense, but they will have to figure things out quickly because it is not getting much easier anytime soon.
Looking Ahead ::
The 49ers have arguably the toughest remaining schedule in the league, with zero “cupcakes” left. Each of their seven remaining opponents is currently in the playoff hunt, and the three “easiest” on-paper matchups are the Dolphins, Rams, and Bears, who all are much better than their records as they have dealt with injury issues of their own this season. The 49ers are going to have to play everyone and give it everything they have to make the postseason this year, as they are two games out of the Wild Card and lost to the NFC West-leading Cardinals once and don’t play them again until Week 18. They can still be an elite offense, but they need to find some level of health and consistency to do so.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Rams (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 20th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 22nd
Week 16 -- at Dolphins
Run Defense DVOA -- 26th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 16th
Week 17 -- vs Lions
Run Defense DVOA -- 5th
Pass Defense DVOA --2nd