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- NFC South Midseason Recap
By Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)
Standings after Week 11:
Falcons 6-5 (Week 12 bye)
Buccaneers 4-6
Saints 4-7 (Week 12 bye)
Panthers 3-7
ATLANTA FALCONS
General Notes ::
Kirk Cousins has been solid for the Falcons but has only had two games over 20 fantasy points, both against the Bucs.
Bijan Robinson had five straight games with 20+ fantasy points prior to being shut down by the Broncos in Week 11.
Backup RB Tyler Allgeier would be an every-week RB1 if Robinson ever misses time.
Drake London and Darnell Mooney have been solid this season but have only had truly big games when Cousins had his.
TE Kyle Pitts has had a couple of big weeks and demonstrated big-play ability, but his weekly floor is also very low.
Offensive Outlook ::
Atlanta has been, for the most part, a run-based offense. Robinson is their workhorse RB and backup Allgeier is more involved in games where they build a big lead and/or are able to run a high amount of plays. The Falcons’ passing game has been solid, but they have really only pushed the issue twice and those were in games against the Bucs’ pass-funnel defense. London is being used in a higher-volume role and running a lot of his routes from the slot, making him a more consistent producer. Atlanta is balanced and capable but seems to be very opponent-dependent in terms of both their approach and effectiveness.
Looking Ahead ::
Atlanta is in control of its division with a two-game lead and is currently on bye. Starting in Week 13, the Falcons have six remaining games, and three of those games are against teams (NYG, LVR, and CAR) whose seasons are already in the tank. With that in mind, Atlanta is very likely to win its division relatively handily but also unlikely to catch the top teams in the conference. For fantasy purposes, this means that their main guys could have their workloads managed in the season’s final weeks as they are likely going to be locked into a No. 3 or No. 4 seed and health will be of high importance once we get to January. London and Robinson are every-week starters due to the volume they see and their talent, but Cousins, Pitts, and Mooney are dependent on matchups and game environments weekly.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Raiders
Run Defense DVOA -- 25th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 26th
Week 16 -- vs Giants
Run Defense DVOA -- 22nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 24th
Week 17 -- at Commanders
Run Defense DVOA -- 29th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 21st
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
General Notes ::
Baker Mayfield has been terrific this season, with four games of 300+ passing yards and five games of three-plus TDs.
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving are splitting playing time at RB and complement each other very well. Sean Tucker would slide into a timeshare if either were to miss any time.
Mike Evans is set to return from his multi-week hamstring injury in Week 12 and should be the focal point of the passing game with Chris Godwin's season over.
Cade Otton is having a career year due to his chemistry with Mayfield and the Bucs’ WR injuries. He is an every-week starter at TE.
Offensive Outlook ::
Godwin was having a terrific year prior to his leg injury that ended his 2024 season. We have yet to see the Bucs play with Evans since Godwin went down, as they’ve simply been trying to survive with their cast of backups and replacement-level WRs. Otton has obviously emerged as the top receiving option for this team for the time being and they are still a pass-heavy unit whose pass-funnel defense puts them into a lot of shootout-type situations. Whether Evans can return to full health and be the “alpha” that this offense needs will play a huge part in where their season goes from here.
Looking Ahead ::
The Bucs have a 4-6 record and are coming off their bye, but they lost both matchups against the division-leading Falcons, which means they lose the tie-breaker and would need to win the division outright. Their remaining schedule is extremely soft, as their Week 15 matchup with the Chargers is the only game they have left against a team with a winning record. The combined record of the teams they play in their other six remaining games is 17-44. The Falcons have a couple of tough games and are far from a dominant team themselves, making it likely that the Bucs can take advantage of the soft schedule and stay in NFC South contention through the end of the season.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Chargers
Run Defense DVOA -- 15th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 6th
Week 16 -- at Cowboys
Run Defense DVOA -- 27th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 29th
Week 17 -- vs Panthers (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 32nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 30th
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
General Notes ::
Derek Carr doesn't have a huge ceiling for fantasy purposes, but his presence is important for the viability of the rest of the offense.
Alvin Kamara signed an extension with the Saints and is an every-week RB1 due to his massive workload and passing game involvement.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has emerged as a big-play threat for the injury-riddled Saints WR corps, but his low-volume role is sure to produce some duds, making him a risky weekly start.
Taysom Hill's role has never been bigger, as he is regularly involved in the offense as a rusher, receiver, and passer. It is hard to keep him on the bench at this point.
Offensive Outlook ::
Kamara and Hill are the “last men standing” in this offense and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has done a great job adjusting the Saints’ offense around their strengths. Their receiving corps is replacement-level at best, but Carr is doing a great job of executing the offense and getting the ball where it needs to go since returning and settling the team down a couple of weeks ago. There aren’t really any other consistent fantasy producers at this point who we can trust as weekly starting options, other than MVS, who will be a boom-or-bust option with some negative regression likely just around the corner.
Looking Ahead::
The Saints saved their season’s hopes with back-to-back wins heading into their Week 12 bye. Their remaining schedule after the bye is not “easy”, but is also not overly demanding. We can expect New Orleans to stay competitive for at least a few weeks and the Saints gave us a glimpse of how they want to play prior to the bye, with Kamara and Taysom likely to continue seeing very high usage. The Saints won’t be able to get a Wild Card berth, so they’ll need to catch the Falcons and Bucs if they want to sneak in the playoffs. They split their two games with the Falcons already and face the Bucs in Week 18.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Commanders
Run Defense DVOA -- 29th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 21st
Week 16 -- at Packers
Run Defense DVOA -- 18th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 15th
Week 17 -- vs Raiders
Run Defense DVOA -- 25th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 26th
CAROLINA PANTHERS
General Notes ::
The Panthers should roll with Bryce Young at QB for the remainder of the year as they evaluate their plans for the future.
RB Chuba Hubbard has been great this season and just signed a big extension, while rookie Jonathon Brooks is set to make his debut and the Panthers’ offense is likely to be very run-heavy going forward.
Rookie WR Xavier Legette and veteran Adam Thielen are likely to be the featured pass catchers for Young.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Panthers’ offense has looked improved in recent weeks, averaging 19 points over the three games heading into their Week 11 bye. Brooks and Hubbard give them a nice backfield tandem and should allow the Panthers to lean heavily on their running game as they use Young in a game-manager role and try to control tempo and game scripts. The bigger issue with that for Carolina is the fact that its defense has been truly awful and allows opponents to run up the score and force the Panthers into predictable passing situations where Young and his mediocre receiving corps gets exposed.
Looking Ahead ::
The road ahead is not an easy one for the Panthers, with four of their seven remaining games being against teams that are currently leading their divisions. Their other three games consist of two matchups with the Bucs, who are still very much alive in the division, and one with the Cowboys, whose season is basically done like Carolina’s. This tough road is not ideal for the Panthers to see their run-heavy game plans through, as they are likely to be handled early and often by much of their remaining schedule. We have seen some young teams turn it on late in the season despite poor records as they look to build for the future, but the combination of Young’s game-manager skill set and a defense that bleeds points is going to make that a steep hill to climb.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Cowboys
Run Defense DVOA -- 27th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 29th
Week 16 -- vs Cardinals
Run Defense DVOA -- 12th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 12th
Week 17 -- at Buccaneers (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 11th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 23rd