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OWS Fam,
In today’s Daily Dose we dive into the NFC North.
Over the next 4 days, we will be delivering the final 4 divisions to your inbox.
Wednesday: AFC East
Thursday: AFC West
Friday: AFC South
Saturday: AFC North
Find the NFC East, NFC West and NFC South previews here: https://owsdailydose.beehiiv.com/
Team Previews are written by Mike Johnson
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Offensive-minded head coach Kevin O’Connell returns to the Vikings along with offensive coordinator Wes Phillips.
Defense: Brian Flores returns for his second season as the defensive coordinator for the Vikings after leading the 11th-ranked DVOA defense in the league in 2023, a big improvement from the previous year.
Personnel Changes ::
Kirk Cousins is gone, and after dealing with a carousel of QBs during the second half of 2023, the Vikings signed Sam Darnold and drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft. McCarthy is out for the season, however, leaving Darnold with an opportunity to rejuvenate his career.
Minnesota’s big offseason acquisition was bringing running back Aaron Jones over from their rival, the Packers. Jones and Ty Chandler, who played very well down the stretch for Minnesota last year, should account for most, if not all, of the Vikings’ backfield work.
Justin Jefferson dealt with an injured hamstring last season, but finished the season with a monster game and is still one of the premier players at his position.
Jordan Addison had a very good rookie season that he will look to build upon while also upping his consistency in 2024.
K.J. Osborn left in free agency and second year receiver Jalen Nailor is primed to assume the WR3 role for Minnesota.
T.J. Hockenson was the TE1 through 15 weeks last season and then tore his ACL. He is close to returning, but will likely miss a few weeks and have his reps managed for a few weeks when he returns.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
CHI x2, DET x2, GB x2
NFC West (4)::
vs. ARI, vs, SF, @ SEA, @ LAR
AFC South (4)::
@ TEN, @ JAX, vs. IND, vs. HOU
@ NYG, vs. ATL, @ NYJ
Bull Case ::
The Vikings ranked sixth in yards per game and eighth in points per game in 2022. Last year, they took a step back in large part due to injuries to Cousins and Jefferson, as they finished 11th in yards per game and 22nd in points per game. Looking ahead to this season, it is clear to see how Minnesota could return to its 2022 form or even surpass it. Jones and Chandler provide a better backfield outlook than what the Vikings running backs provided the last two years in terms of both efficiency and explosiveness. Assuming a fully healthy Jefferson and an early-season return for Hockenson, the Vikings could be screaming “buys” and hit the ground running.
Sam Darnold is better than most people realize and is in the best situation of his career. Minnesota led the NFL in passing yards last season and this has historically been a very QB friendly system. The Vikings were a wildly popular team last season with high ADP’s and they were on track to pay off those projections until injuries got the best of them. If Darnold is closer to Cousins than he is to the parade of QBs the Vikings trotted out during the second half of 2023, this offense will have multiple players smashing their ADPs.
Bear Case ::
The Vikings have improved their defense significantly over the last couple of years and should have an improved running game as well. Those factors could lead them into more games that come down to ball control, as opposed to the frequent shootouts we saw Cousins lead them through during recent years. Their starting quarterback is a journeyman QB (Darnold) who has never really been able to “carry” an offense to big production on a consistent basis.
Hockenson will be exactly nine months removed from his ACL surgery when the NFL season kicks off, which is definitely feasible by today’s standards but far from a guarantee that he will be a “full go” and/or playing at a level near his elite standards. Jefferson is wildly talented and Addison is a great second option, but the change in quarterback adds an element of unknown for both of them. Meanwhile, Jones is a great addition in theory, but he is also turning 30 this season and “Father Time” is undefeated – especially against running backs.
The NFC North may be the toughest division in football this season, and the other three teams all have stronger outlooks at the QB position and fewer injury concerns. It’s easy to see how the Vikings could get knocked around this season, and it’s also possible that they turn to a more conservative offensive approach to make Darnold more comfortable, which would crater the projections for their elite, and expensive, skill players.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The Vikings were one of my favorite teams to load up on last season. Cousins was overlooked (as always), Jefferson was my 1.01, Hockenson was my TE1, I loved taking Addison/Osborn, and when in doubt, I would try to roster a Vikings RB. This year I once again find myself very intrigued by them::
If you were a QB trying to keep your head above water, don’t you think you’d be throwing the ball to Jefferson as often as possible? He’s going in the middle of the first round this season, which means I will have A TON of him.
Darnold is a very interesting late-round QB option. He entered the league a talented and promising prospect, but was put into some of the worst situatiosn imaginable. He has better rushing ability than Cousins had and has the same supporting cast to throw to.
Addison is a “fine” option to me, but comes with some risk due to his offseason DUI (which could lead to a suspension at some point this season) and a training camp ankle injury.
Hockenson was the TE1 when he got hurt last season. Players are coming back from ACL’s faster than ever. I’m taking the discount.
Jones is not someone I expect to play all season, but he can/should have some big games when he’s on the field and makes sense in managed leagues as someone who can win a few weeks for you.
Chandler flashed at times last season, despite the fact that the Vikings’ offense was a shell of itself when he got his opportunity. Considering my optimism for their offense this year and my pessimism on the ability of Jones to stay on the field, I’ll be targeting Chandler often in the mid-double digit rounds.
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GREEN BAY PACKERS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Head coach Matt LaFleur still runs the offense and will look to expand on the positive steps the offense took in Jordan Love’s first year as QB.
Defense: Joe Barry was relieved of his duties as defensive coordinator and was replaced by Jeff Hafley, who comes from Ohio State and is expected to have a more aggressive defense that also makes more in-game adjustments.
Personnel Changes ::
Love’s first year under center was a smashing success and he finished things off on a high note. Time will tell if that was just the beginning or he takes a step back.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are out as the lead dogs in the Packers backfield, with Josh Jacobs being brought in with a big free agent contract and Marshawn Lloyd being drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dillon is still on the roster after signing a low priced contract, but can be cut with very little cost for the team.
The Packers’ WR room is perhaps the most interesting one in the league, with five legitimate, young NFL-caliber WRs of varying skill sets and body types.
The Packers had two rookie tight ends in 2023 and both made a good impression. Luke Musgrave had a huge role to start the year and played well before missing significant time with a scary injury to his kidney. Tucker Kraft was very impressive when given the lead role at the position while Musgrave was out. Both had a role in the playoffs. This is a potentially messy situation.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
CHI x2, DET x2, MIN x2
NFC West (4)::
vs. ARI, vs, SF, @ SEA, @ LAR
AFC South (4)::
@ JAX, @ TEN, vs. HOU, vs. IND
@ PHI, vs. MIA, vs. NO
Bull Case ::
The Packers had a rocky start to 2023 and there were A LOT of people throwing in the towel on Love and calling out LaFleur. Talk about a comeback story. The Packers went on a tear to end the season and make the playoffs, then went into Dallas in the Wild Card round and embarrassed their former head coach (Mike McCarthy). Then they had the 49ers on the ropes and probably should have beaten them in their Divisional Round matchup. Their offense was absolutely clicking and Love looked like a top-tier QB who was totally in sync with his head coach. Despite a rotating cast of receivers, Love just kept producing and winning. The Packers’ defense got hot at the right time as well, slowing down several very good offenses down the stretch.
Green Bay has a very good defense, a decent offensive line, a young and ascending QB, an improved backfield, and a deep and talented receiving corps. They were also one of the youngest teams in the NFL in 2023 and will return most of the core of their squad. We often see young teams “figure it out” to end one season and that carries over to the following season. Last year we saw that with the Lions, who got hot down the stretch of 2022 and rode that momentum to an NFC North title. Jones and Dillon are no longer the top RBs for the Packers, replaced by Jacobs and Lloyd. Jacobs is similar to Jones but more durable and younger. Lloyd is more explosive and versatile than Dillon. Their backfield should be better. All five of their top receivers had moments where they were able to shine in 2023. All that experience and competition should only benefit them, and Love appears to be a guy who will get the most out of whoever is on the field. Green Bay can be a sneaky Super Bowl contender in the NFC.
Bear Case ::
The Packers are understandably a trendy team to be high on in 2024. They have a talented young QB, finished last season strong, and are one of the more popular franchises in the league. That being said, there are a few things that have me concerned regarding their outlook::
While it was impressive to see Love carry the offense no matter who was on the field and depth is generally a good thing…this offense doesn’t have an “alpha” in the receiving corps. Over the long term, it is rare that we see a top-tier offense sustain without a clear offensive centerpiece.
The NFC North is loaded. The Lions should have gone to the Super Bowl last season and are arguably better on paper this season. The Bears added what most consider to be a generational QB and have possibly the league’s best receiving corps…to go along with a defense that was terrific the second half of 2023. And the Vikings are likely to be far more competitive than most realize. It’s going to be a tough road for Green Bay.
The change in defensive coordinator matters a lot. While Barry had his share of shortcomings, he had the Packers’ defense playing well down the stretch last season. Likewise, Barry’s “conservative” defensive approach fit well with LaFleur’s somewhat methodical offensive approach that is built to play in close games or with a lead. Changing to a more aggressive defensive scheme could put the Packers in more situations where they are playing from behind and force LaFleur away from what has been working.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
I was really high on the Packers in 2023 and was technically “right”, but I didn’t really get rewarded for it due to how things played out with injuries and rotating personnel. Heading into 2024, they are an interesting team to evaluate because it seems like everyone is high on them, but their ADPs are relatively low. Here’s my take on each of them::
I really like Love as a player. From a fantasy perspective, however, I’d prefer to spend a bit more draft capital for someone like Burrow, Dak, or Kyler…..or wait a bit and take one of Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence or Jayden Daniels.
If the ADP of Jacobs falls to the third- or fourth- round turn, I’ll consider him. If he stays in the early-to-third-round range, I won’t have much.
Lloyd is a talented young player on a good offense. I’m in.
The Packers’ WR situation is a fun one to look at. In theory, their top three are Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs.
Reed as a movable chess piece who they use all over the field and prioritize touches/targets for. He was terrific the second half of last season and I love his upside in the fifth or sixth round.
Watson as a field stretcher and big-play threat. He had two consecutive big games and seemed to be clicking with Love before going down with an injury in Week 13. His current ADP feels a little rich, but he’s a guy I really like on UD and DK where his weekly ceiling could be the difference if it happens at the right time.
Doubs had six games with 16+ PPR points in 2023. That’s a big number for someone being selected around pick 100.
Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton are fun picks and I like stacking them up with other GB WRs. I don’t trust that Watson and Reed stay healthy all season, so these guys should get chances.
I think Tucker Kraft and Musgrave will share the TE role for the Packers. Kraft is going far later in drafts and performed better in 2023, so he’s the guy I’ll be targeting. I don’t hate the idea of taking both of them together on a roster on Draftkings or Drafters, where there are 20 roster spots.
Mid-August Update ::
Jordan Love is healthy and should be eating well for a while after becoming the highest-paid player in NFL history.
The Packers backfield is very interesting right now. Josh Jacobs has missed some practice time, but none of the things he is dealing with sound serious. AJ Dillon is in the best shape of his life (for real) and playing great in camp, while rookie MarShawn Lloyd is trying to take away the RB2 job from him after starting camp by missing the first week.
The Packers coaches said this week that they will do everything they can to get the ball in Jayden Reed’s hands and he has the most dynamic skill set of the group.
Christian Watson is still healthy (knock on wood) and Matt LaFleur said that Romeo Doubs has made improvements from his strong finish to last season.
Dontayvion Wicks remains the most talented WR4 in the league, but he’s likely being overdrafted at the moment.
Luke Musgrave is set to lead the tight end room after Tucker Kraft missed the last two months with an injured pectoral. Kraft should be back in the next week or two, however, and this likely becomes a timeshare situation. Musgrave is still a fine pick in the 14th to 16th rounds, while Kraft is intriguing as a 20th-round dart throw.
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DETROIT LIONS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Emerging star Ben Johnson returns to the Lions as their offensive coordinator after leading one of the more exciting offenses in the league in the past two seasons. He turned down multiple head-coaching opportunities to stay in Detroit.
Defense: Aaron Glenn returns for his third season leading Detroit’s defense, which ranked 13th in the league in DVOA in 2023 but struggled defending the pass, especially as the year went on.
Personnel Changes ::
Jared Goff remains the Lions’ quarterback.
Detroit’s offense continued to be a hot bed for fantasy production, as David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 450 PPR points in 2023, ranking RB15 and RB8 in points per game, respectively.
Amon-Ra St. Brown signed a massive contract extension this April and deserved every penny of it after his WR3 performance in 2023.
Jameson Williams should finally take his spot as the WR2 for the Lions – better late than never.
Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones are the likely candidates for the WR3 job – with Raymond’s skill set seemingly being the better fit with Goff.
Sam LaPorta had a massive rookie season and enters 2024 as the consensus TE1 in fantasy.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
GB x2, CHI x2, MIN x2
NFC West (4)::
@ SF, @ ARI, vs. LAR, vs. SEA
AFC South (4)::
@ HOU, @ IND, vs. JAX, vs. TEN
@ DAL, vs. TB, vs. BUF
Bull Case ::
The Lions have a very good quarterback, an elite backfield, a top-tier offensive line, and young, versatile stars in the receiving game. They also have one of the top offensive minds in the game in Johnson. This is a team who had a wildly successful 2023 season and were extremely close to making the Super Bowl. While the rest of the NFC North has improved, they should have a confidence and swagger that gives them an edge to stay on top of the division. The Lions’ defense struggled at times last season, but they wisely didn’t panic and make big coaching changes. Rather, they focused on improving their secondary and should benefit from the continuity of having kept all of the main pieces of their coaching staff intact.
Detroit’s offense is in that sweet spot of having a team that is young and whose stars have not yet hit their peak, but they have experience and success. That is a rare combination, as usually you will get a young and ascending team without experience or an experienced/successful team that may be hitting the downside of their careers. From a fantasy perspective, Detroit’s playoff loss last season (in which their offense hit the brakes hard in the second half) may serve as motivation for them to stay ultra- aggressive and never sit on a lead.
St. Brown became one of the highest-paid WR’s in the league, and the team is only starting to fully unleash Gibbs. They also benefit from Williams being available right from the start of the season, which should help add a field-stretching element that opens up things for all of their other weapons who thrive in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. It won’t be surprising if the Lions lead the NFL in scoring and yardage in 2024.
Bear Case ::
Head coach Dan Campbell was brutally honest with his team after their devastating loss to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. He told them that the NFL is an unforgiving league and there’s a chance they never get back to that spot again. While it may seem harsh and pessimistic, we’ve seen many teams with supposedly “bright futures” have things pile up against them and fall apart in the modern NFL. Here are the biggest worries for the Lions::
Their defense should be better, which could reduce the amount of high-scoring games they play in. A team with Super Bowl aspirations could also become very conservative with their star players as far as touches/usage goes when they play inferior opponents and get a lead.
Goff has been terrific in Detroit, but the concerns around his game still loom. Don’t forget that he was great for the Rams for a while….until he wasn’t.
The Lions’ backfield has had terrific production in recent years. Montgomery and Gibbs complement each other perfectly and allow each other to stay fresh and effective. If either were to go down and the other was forced into a “workhorse” role for an extended period of time, the entire backfield’s efficiency would likely take a hit, which would hurt the offense as a whole (and expose Goff’s areas of weakness).
The Lions ran extremely hot in terms of injury luck last season. St. Brown, Gibbs, LaPorta and Montgomery all have playing styles and work in areas of the field that expose them to a lot of hits. All of them played at least 14 games in 2023. As Campbell alluded to, things can turn quickly in the NFL, and injuries are something that usually hit every team eventually. It would be interesting to see if Goff can maintain his high level of play with a diminished supporting cast.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
I loved the Lions in 2023, and the Lions loved me back. I had three Lions on my team that took seventh in the Drafters Million tournament, netting me a cool $30k. Those players were ARSB (13th overall), Montgomery (84th overall), and LaPorta (133rd overall). As of this writing, those players have ADP’s of 6.6, 77.8, and 32.1. From that perspective, my outlook on the Lions this season is not quite as high just because they are being priced at or near their highest-end outcomes. That doesn’t mean I am out on them, just that expectations and perceptions have to be altered a bit.
Here are some player-specific takes on the Lions for this season::
Goff’s lack of rushing theoretically limits his ceiling, but a QB on a top-five offense being selected in the 9th-to-11th rounds is a fine proposition to me. He’s unlikely to smash that ADP, as he only scored 20+ fantasy points in seven of 20 games last season. Yet, as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to give you a solid baseline of production. He’s a QB who you want to be smart about with respect to which other QBs you pair him with on rosters. Also, because of how Goff plays, he isn’t a QB you should feel the need to force into Lions stacks (note my $30k Drafters team did NOT have Goff stacked).
Gibbs could be the RB1 this season if things break right. I prefer taking WRs in the first two rounds of drafts, but Gibbs near the 1-2 turn is going to be too tempting for me to pass up in a lot of instances.
Montgomery is a solid bet at his 7th-to-8th-round ADP on specific rosters. I prefer him on teams that go heavy at other positions early and select Montgomery as their first RB. This gives a decent baseline of scoring and you know he is going to produce as long as he’s on the field. That consistency is less valuable if you’ve taken stud RBs prior to him.
St. Brown’s role and production feels about as secure as any of the top-end WRs.
LaPorta is a perfect fit with Goff and scored double-digit PPR points in 13 of 20 games (including playoffs). He also showed his “ceiling” ability with multiple games of 28+ points. There’s a chance he is still undervalued in the third round.
Williams is being selected around the same spot this year as he was last year. He’s a solid bet in the ninth round of drafts as a full-time player with high draft pedigree on an elite offense.
Raymond is an interesting late-round dart throw. He has produced basically every time he’s been given opportunity and can thrive in the areas Goff excels in. Were ARSB or LaPorta to ever miss time, Raymond would be set up to smash. Even when at full strength, Raymond should have the inside track for the Lions’ WR3 job.
Mid-August Update ::
Not much has changed for Detroit. Everyone is healthy with the exception of a minor hamstring injury that Sam LaPorta is dealing with and in similar roles to last season. The most notable things have been the steady drumbeat of positive reports about Jameson Williams coming out of camp, as well as confirmation of Kalif Raymond locking up the WR3 role.
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CHICAGO BEARS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Shane Waldron was hired as the offensive coordinator for the Bears, a position he previously held for the Seahawks.
Defense: Head coach Matt Eberflus has a defensive background and is returning this season, along with defensive coordinator Alan Williams.
Personnel Changes ::
Caleb Williams was drafted first overall and enters this season as one of the highest-touted rookie quarterbacks in NFL history.
Talented veteran RB D’Andre Swift was signed to a big contract in free agency. The Bears also have talented second-year RB Roschon Johnson and efficient veteran Khalil Herbert to provide depth in their backfield.
DJ Moore had a career year for the Bears in 2023 and showed he belongs in the upper echelon of NFL WRs. He will have more target competition this year, but he’ll also have the best QB play and offensive environment of his career.
Keenan Allen was obtained for cheap via trade and highly-touted WR Rome Odunze was selected ninth overall in the NFL Draft to give the Bears potentially the best WR trio in the NFL (yea, I said it).
Cole Kmet had another strong season and was rewarded with a massive contract. The Bears also brought in Gerald Everett to give them depth and play-making options at the tight end position.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
GB x2, DET x2, MIN x2
NFC West (4)::
@ SF, @ ARI, vs. LAR, vs. SEA
AFC South (4)::
@ HOU, @ IND, vs. JAX, vs. TEN
vs. CAR, @ WAS, vs. NE
Bull Case ::
The Bears went 5-3 during the second half of last season, with their three losses all coming against playoff teams in the Lions, Browns and Packers. In two of those three losses, the Bears led by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. In six of those eight games, the Bears held their opponents under 20 points, as their defense turned into one of the better units in the league. Now entering 2024 with a souped-up offense and returning the core of their strong defense, Chicago is primed to challenge for a playoff spot and potentially the top of the NFC North.
The Bears’ offense has perhaps the top WR unit in the league and deep groups at RB and TE. If Williams is even 70% of the player he is touted to be, this offense could do some real damage. They have an alpha WR in Moore, a veteran who can work at multiple levels in Allen, and an explosive prospect in Odunze who should get a lot of favorable matchups to exploit as the season progresses. The Bears also benefit from a “last place” schedule that features three of the four worst records in football from last season – the Panthers, Commanders and Patriots – as well as dates with the AFC South, which seems to lack a top-end opponent. In a division that looks like it will be extremely competitive, having those favorable matchups outside the division could be a huge deal for Chicago and its rookie QB. The “bull case” for Chicago is simply that Williams is the real deal, and it isn’t inconceivable that he’s a top-five QB this season and is drafted near the top of the position in 2025….with the Bears’ skill players enjoying the fruits of the “rising tide” of an elite offense.
Bear Case ::
From a fantasy perspective, there are two paths to a “Bear Case” (no pun intended) for Chicago::
The Bears play in a tough division and also play the NFC West, which has four teams that should be competitive, and the AFC South – which lacks a dominant team but also has four teams who should at least be competitive. Chicago’s strong defense could land it in a lot of lower-scoring, competitive games, and they could be more conservative than expected with their rookie QB, especially if he struggles under pressure (which was his biggest “knock” coming out of USC).
There are simply a lot of mouths to feed in the Bears offense. While the team may have success offensively, they have three WRs being drafted in the first six rounds of drafts, two capable tight ends and three capable running backs. There are a lot of different ways they could go with their deployment of that personnel, but Waldron used multiple RBs in Seattle and also used a relatively high amount of “12” personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB). Scoring and production is great for fantasy football, but the more players that production is spread out between, the less valuable it is.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
My expectations for the Bears this season lie somewhere between the “Bull” and “Bear” cases discussed above::
I think Williams is the real deal and he is going to have a terrific rookie season with an offense built around him and an incredible group of skill players to work with. It really is incredible how much better his supporting cast is than what Justin Fields had to work with.
Swift is one of my favorite RBs to target in the middle rounds of drafts. A very talented player with great receiving chops that were rarely used in Philadelphia, I could see him being unleashed this year and fitting in perfectly with Williams and the rest of the Bears’ offense. Chicago gave him a large contract and I think his upside is far above what his ADP would suggest.
Johnson is a talented second-year RB and Herbert has performed well on far worse Bears offenses than what they will have in 2024.
I am still buying Moore despite the added target competition, as he is a very talented WR in his prime on the best offense of his career. He was the WR6 in PPR scoring last year on a mediocre offense, yet is being drafted as the WR14 currently. I think his volume and production will stay constant this year with added touchdown opportunities.
Allen is a very good real-life football player and should have a good season while serving as an important piece of this Bears offense. That being said, his current fourth-round ADP feels too steep for a 32-year old WR that hasn’t been great at scoring TDs throughout his career and is on a new team with far more target competition.
Odunze is extremely talented and I am very high on his long-term outlook. He’s someone I’d be OK to take some shots on in the late seventh round if he starts falling that far.
Kmet and Everett are both very good TEs and Waldron’s offense loved using TEs in Seattle. I like both as options later in drafts.
Mid-August Update ::
Caleb Williams may have the best supporting cast of any #1 pick in NFL history. He has made some great plays to start camp and is showing strong leadership traits….he could be in store for a historic rookie year.
Nothing new of note for the Bears passing game, as DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze are the clear top three WRs for the team and Cole Kmet will be the lead TE with Gerald Everett mixing in.