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- NFC North Midseason Recap
By Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)
Standings after Week 11:
Lions 9-1
Vikings 8-2
Packers 7-3
Bears 4-6
DETROIT LIONS
General Notes ::
Jared Goff is having the best season of his career and has been incredibly efficient while throwing at a low rate in most games since Detroit has been rolling teams.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are almost certainly the top RB duo in the NFL and both are weekly starters for fantasy.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 2024 season has taken a step back from 2023 due to limited volume, but in Week 11 he showcased that he’s “still got it”.
Jameson Williams has opened up an explosive element to the Lions offense despite a surprise two-game mid-season suspension. He is a boom-or-bust weekly fantasy option.
Sam LaPorta has also taken a big step back from a fantasy perspective in 2024 after his TE1 season last year. He is still a strong weekly starting consideration, but no longer the lock he was previously.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Lions lead the NFL in scoring and rank first in rushing offense DVOA, as their elite offensive line and dominant RB duo of Gibbs/Montgomery makes life miserable for their opponents. Their defense is also among the top units in the league despite losing All-Pro defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions have shown a willingness to stay aggressive deep into games even with big leads and there hasn’t really been a team who has found a recipe to stopping them yet, as they have scored 24+ points in seven straight games and have scored at least five touchdowns in a game four times during that stretch.
Looking Ahead ::
Detroit has been rolling along, but the job is not done. The Lions have a tough remaining schedule with four games against the Packers, Bills, 49ers, and Vikings. The Vikings and Eagles are each only a game back so they are nowhere near in position to consider slowing things down. In 2023 they played all their starters in Week 18 with their playoff position locked up, as Dan Campbell’s “compete at all costs” mindset requires playing to win at all times. The Lions’ defense is aggressive, and while their overall metrics are great, they can also give up big scores to opponents and get into shootouts. Given their remaining schedule, offensive firepower, and aggressive approach on both sides of the ball, we should be targeting Lions games for fantasy goodness on a weekly basis all year.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Bills
Run Defense DVOA -- 7th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 11th
Week 16 -- at Bears (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 31st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 9th
Week 17 -- at 49ers
Run Defense DVOA -- 19th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 3rd
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
General Notes ::
Vikings QB Sam Darnold has had the best season of his career in a competent offensive system with a great supporting cast of skill players.
Aaron Jones has had several very good games but has also dealt with several bumps and bruises throughout the season. The Vikings appear to be cutting back his workload a bit in the interest of keeping him healthy and effective late into the season.
All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson is having another terrific season but has yet to display the huge weekly upside we have previously seen. The epitome of consistency, Jefferson has 20+ PPR points in six of 10 games while reaching double digits in all but one game. He has notably had his two lowest-scoring games of the season the last two weeks, however, which could be taken as a sign that his outlook is on the way down or that he is due for an explosion. I tend to believe the latter.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson came back in Week 11 and has run a route on 65% of the team’s dropbacks in that time. Both games were low-scoring affairs against the Jags and Titans, and Hockenson’s role and effectiveness should grow as he gets back into form.
Second year WR Jordan Addison has played eight games and been targeted more than five times only twice. He is a boom-or-bust weekly Flex option with a low floor and a moderate ceiling.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Vikings averaged 28 points per game over the first six games and have averaged only 19 points over the last four, as their offensive success has slowed down a bit and they have won games with their defense. This is still a solid unit, but there is a reason Sam Darnold has bounced around throughout his career and defenses seem to be catching up. The Vikings have not really had to play from behind yet this season and if/when they do, it will be interesting to see how Darnold handles it. Minnesota has been less aggressive in its play calling and tempo than in past years, which indicates that the coaches are aware of Darnold’s shortcomings and are trying to control games and play from a positive game script.
Looking Ahead ::
Minnesota has six games remaining in the fantasy season with five games against teams that rank bottom 10 in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE). The interesting thing about the Minnesota defense is how good it’s been against the run, which has resulted in the Vikings facing the highest opponent pass rate of any defense in the NFL. The Vikings games have been somewhat “grinders” in recent weeks, but there is the potential for some higher-scoring affairs as Minnesota’s aggressive, blitzing defense faces some familiar foes and solid QBs down the stretch. The Vikings’ running game is primed for a good stretch during the fantasy playoffs and Jones could be a game-changer if he is able to stay healthy through the end of the year.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Bears (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 31st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 9th
Week 16 -- at Seahawks
Run Defense DVOA -- 17th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 13th
Week 17 -- vs Packers (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 18th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 15th
GREEN BAY PACKERS
General Notes ::
Jordan Love has been aggressive through the air this season but has scored over 20 fantasy points in only three of eight starts.
Packers RB Josh Jacobs has secured the bell-cow role and should be very busy during the last few weeks of the season.
Jayden Reed has been the most productive, but most volatile, WR for the Packers this season. He has three 100-yard receiving games, and all have been in Packers losses.
Romeo Doubs plays nearly every snap and is the most consistent of the other Packers WRs, but his ceiling is limited. He has not scored 20 fantasy points in a game and has had 11 or more only twice in nine starts.
Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are talented young WRs who are splitting time. They may have some good games down the stretch but they will be nearly impossible to predict without injuries thrusting them into full-time roles.
TE Tucker Kraft has taken full control of the top spot on the Packers’ tight-end depth chart and plays nearly every snap and passing play. He has a high weekly floor and ceiling.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Packers are coached by Matt LaFleur, who is a disciple of the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree and whose offense works in many similar ways. One thing that we have seen over the years with his offense is that they love to bleed the play clock and play methodically until forced to do otherwise. The offense is also built around the running game first and foremost, with the passing game concepts building off play action, misdirection, and getting the defense’s pre-snap alignment to give them favorable looks in the intermediate-to-deep areas of the field. Green Bay ranks 32nd in the NFL in PROE and 24th in pass attempts per game, as their methodical tempo and run-based mindset combine to limit overall play volume. When they are rolling offensively and picking up chunk plays they can hit for high scores and a lot of production, as the offense’s design does give them opportunities to make big plays.
Looking Ahead ::
Green Bay faces a string of very good opposing offenses to end the season, with the 49ers, Dolphins, Lions, Vikings, and Seahawks all offering clear paths to potential shootouts. Love will certainly have some very good games down the stretch and Jacobs is primed for a strong end to the season if he can stay healthy. Reed’s big games have come in competitive games, which we should expect at least a couple of down the stretch. The rest of the Packers’ offensive personnel will be hard to trust on a weekly basis unless injuries condense things.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Seahawks
Run Defense DVOA -- 17th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 13th
Week 16 -- vs Saints
Run Defense DVOA -- 30th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 14th
Week 17 -- at Vikings (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 1st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 1st
CHICAGO BEARS
General Notes ::
Prized rookie QB Caleb Williams has shown a high ceiling against weaker opponents but has struggled with strong defenses and when under pressure.
D’Andre Swift has been the Bears’ top RB this season but ceded more work to Roschon Johnson in Week 11 during new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown’s first game calling plays.
DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are the team’s top receiving threats and Moore is being used in a role close to the line of scrimmage and relying on his yards-after-catch ability while Odunze is likely to be worked into a traditional “alpha”/”X” role down the stretch.
Veteran WR Keenan Allen is the king of low-value targets in the short area of the field and is not making plays after the catch at this point in his career.
TE Cole Kmet has two big games this season but did not score in double digits in any of the other eight games.
Offensive Outlook ::
Chicago mercifully let go of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron after Week 10 and looked pretty solid in Week 11. In that one-week sample we have, they made Odunze a focal point as a downfield receiver who led the team in targets, schemed Moore touches in the short area of the field, moved to more of a RB committee, and used Williams as a runner more than he had been all season prior to that. It is hard to tell if all of those changes will be sticky, but all of them make sense from a theoretical perspective and provide some optimism for the Chicago offense going forward.
Looking Ahead ::
The Bears have been an offense that is highly sensitive to opponents, as they looked terrific against the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars but have been mediocre at best in their other games. The coordinator change provides some hope and they will certainly need to put up a lot of points down the stretch to stay competitive, as their remaining schedule includes two games against each of the Vikings and Lions, with one game each against the 49ers, Seahawks, and Packers. Look for Chicago to turn Williams loose down the stretch with Moore and Odunze as the main targets as the Bears look to build their offense of the future.
Fantasy Playoffs::
Week 15 -- at Vikings (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 1st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 1st
Week 16 -- vs Lions (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 5th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 2nd
Week 17 -- vs Seahawks
Run Defense DVOA -- 17th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 13th