NFC East Midseason Recap

Eagles/Commanders/Cowboys/Giants

Standings after Week 11:

  • Eagles 8-2

  • Commanders 7-4 (Week 14 bye)

  • Cowboys 3-7 

  • Giants 2-8

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

General Notes :: 

  • Jalen Hurts is the QB2 in points per game this season and has been the QB1 since Week 6 when A.J. Brown returned from injury.

  • Saquon Barkley is the RB1 in fantasy through 11 weeks and has gone over 30 PPR points in four of 10 games despite ceding several “tush push” TDs to Hurts this season. 

  • Brown has been mildly disappointing this season, as he missed three games with an injury and has not scored a touchdown in any of his last four games.

  • DeVonta Smith has been solid this year, scoring 15+ PPR points in six of nine games he has played in, but he has not gone over 21 points yet this year as he plays a complementary role to the Eagles “Big 3”.

  • Tight end Dallas Goedert had a career game in Week 3 with the Eagles missing Brown and Smith, but he’s averaged only 8.0 PPR points in his other six active games.

Offensive Outlook :: 

The Eagles unsurprisingly rank fourth in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA and they have been a juggernaut offensively when healthy. In the games in which they had all three of Hurts, Barkley, and Brown healthy they have point totals of 34, 20, 28, 37, 28, 34, and 26 – good for an average of 29.6 points per game, which would be third best in the NFL on the season. They have done this without truly opening up their passing game since they have been able to control games on the ground and their defense has improved throughout the year, allowing them to salt away leads and control game environments. 

Looking Ahead :: 

With six games left in the fantasy season, the Eagles have four games on their schedule that project to be extremely competitive and two games (against the Panthers and Cowboys) that we should expect them to win handily. The Lions are rolling along with one loss, while the Commanders are only a game behind the Eagles in the standings, meaning that this is a team that should be fighting for playoff positioning all the way to the end of the season. The Eagles should continue to be a highly efficient offense as long as their core players stay healthy, and their weekly floor as a unit is very high while their ceiling is most likely to be unlocked if/when they play high-level opponents like the Ravens in Week 13.

Fantasy Playoffs ::

  • Week 15 -- vs Steelers

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 10th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 8th

  • Week 16 -- at Commanders (second matchup)

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 29th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 21st

  • Week 17 -- vs Cowboys (second matchup)

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 27th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 29th

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

General Notes :: 

  • Rookie sensation QB Jayden Daniels has cooled off a bit after a hot start to his career. After being the QB3 and averaging 22.7 points through six weeks, he has averaged 14.1 points in his last five outings, which has been good for QB25 during that stretch.

  • The Washington backfield has been very productive this season, as Brian Robinson has scored double-digit fantasy points in seven of eight games and Austin Ekeler has done so in eight of 10 games, although only once has either of them (Robinson) scored 20 in a game.

  • Terry McLaurin is having a career year with Daniels as his QB and is the only WR on the Commanders you can count on as a weekly starter.

  • Zach Ertz is defying Father Time and is the TE7 in total points through 11 games, with 14+ PPR points in three of his last five games.

Offensive Outlook :: 

The Commanders offense ranks fourth in the NFL at 28 points per game, although many of their highest-scoring games have come against lower-level opponents. An interesting statistic for Washington is the fact the Commanders have played three games this season against teams currently ranked in the top 10 in pass defense DVOA (CHI, PHI, and PIT) and averaged 21 points per game in those three outings while averaging 31 points per game in their other eight contests. This makes sense on a holistic level, as the Commanders’ “weakness” offensively is obviously their receiving corps and teams with stronger pass defenses are able to keep them from making explosive plays and make them one-dimensional.

Looking Ahead :: 

The Commanders have a Week 14 bye, leaving them with only five remaining games in the fantasy season for most leagues. Building off the statistic shared above, Week 16 against the Eagles is the only remaining game on their schedule against a pass defense currently ranked in the top 10 and the Saints in Week 15 are actually the highest-ranked pass defense they have left (currently No. 14). With that in mind, we can expect the Commanders to have a relatively strong end to the season assuming Daniels can stay healthy.

Fantasy Playoffs ::

  • Week 15 -- at Saints 

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 30th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 14th

  • Week 16 -- vs Eagles (second matchup)

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 9th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 5th

  • Week 17 -- vs Falcons

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 14th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 28th

DALLAS COWBOYS

General Notes :: 

  • Cowboys QB Dak Prescott’s season is over due to a hamstring injury, leaving Cooper Rush as the starter. Reclamation project Trey Lance may get a shot to start later in the year as the Cowboys fall out of playoff contention and would be a savvy pickup in Superflex and two-QB leagues right now.

  • Rico Dowdle has assumed the RB1 role with the Cowboys and is dominating playing time and usage, although that role has been relatively low value as the Dallas offense has collapsed from its 2023 levels.

  • CeeDee Lamb has had what has felt like a disappointing season for his standards, but he still ranks as the WR4 through 11 weeks. There is some concern of him being shut down early if/when the Cowboys’ season is lost.

  • The rest of the Dallas WR room has several players mixing and matching playing time and is hard to trust on a weekly basis for usage or production.

  • Jake Ferguson suffered a concussion in Week 11 and will likely miss Week 12. Second year TE Luke Schoonmaker was targeted 10 times on Monday night and will be a nice fill-in for any weeks that Ferguson is out.

Offensive Outlook :: 

The Cowboys are in a tough spot at this point without Prescott, with a non-existent running game, and with a defense that continues to hemorrhage points. The Cowboys have allowed five consecutive opponents to score 27+ points and have averaged only 14 points themselves during that stretch. They have played two games since losing Prescott and only scored 16 total points in those games, although they did have a lot more success moving the ball against the Texans in Week 11 with 388 total yards of offense, but struggled to convert those yards to points due to sacks, turnovers, and a missed field goal. 

Looking Ahead :: 

If the Cowboys can pull themselves together, they could actually be a somewhat useful team for fantasy purposes down the stretch. Starting with this week’s matchup with the Commanders, they face five consecutive opponents ranked 21st or worse in the NFL in pass defense DVOA. Rush threw for 354 yards in Week 11 and the passing game looked somewhat competent, which lends some hope to the idea that a team with a superstar WR like Lamb could have success on a stretch like that against relatively softer competition. The main obstacles to that projection is the very real possibility of the Cowboys shutting Lamb down at some point in a lost season, which would cut the legs out from the entire offense, as well as the likelihood of them moving to Lance at some point – a QB who has struggled with consistency in the passing game and may struggle to get the ball to the other skill players as well as Rush can, instead relying on his legs and being more likely to commit turnovers.

Fantasy Playoffs ::

  • Week 15 -- at Panthers

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 32nd

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 30th

  • Week 16 -- vs Buccaneers

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 11th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 23rd

  • Week 17 -- at Eagles (second matchup)

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 9th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 5th

NEW YORK GIANTS

General Notes :: 

  • Daniel Jones was benched coming out of the Giants’ bye week and Tommy DeVito will now be the starting QB in a cost-saving move that allows the Giants to avoid risking injury guarantees being triggered for Jones. 

  • Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., who is a converted wide receiver, has looked electric this season and will likely be the Giants’ featured back down the stretch in 2023. 

  • Malik Nabers has cooled off a bit since a red-hot start, which was halted by a multi-week absence due to a concussion. Nabers is a candidate to go on a torrid stretch during the upcoming weeks if DeVito can get him the ball.

  • Wan’Dale Robinson is ninth among all NFL WRs in targets but 31st in PPR points, as his role gives him a high volume of low-value targets.

  • Darius Slayton had a hot stretch while Nabers missed time but has scored double digits in only one of seven games that he and Nabers have both been active for.

  • Rookie TE Theo Johnson has emerged in a full-time role for the Giants, most recently playing 69 of 75 snaps in their international game against the Panthers in Week 10. 

Offensive Outlook :: 

The choice to move from Jones to DeVito as the Giants starting quarterback was a financial and fan-base-motivated decision, rather than a football-related one. The Giants have clearly decided that they will move on from Jones after this season and his contract guarantees are tied to injuries, so benching him now ensures they aren’t left on the hook for his massive deal. They almost certainly would have moved Drew Lock into the starting job if winning games was the target. However, at this point, with a 2-8 record and a move away from Jones, they decided they are better served playing to their fan base – who loved DeVito in his time as a starter in 2023 – while also likely improving their position for the 2025 draft. DeVito is a game manager in every sense of the word who will need to rely heavily on his supporting cast to make plays for him. Luckily, he has some exciting rookies to lean on in Nabers and Tracy. Both of them, along with Johnson, should be heavily involved down the stretch as the Giants use what is remaining in the 2024 season to build their corps for a run with a new franchise QB in 2025.

Looking Ahead :: 

The Giants’ remaining schedule is extremely favorable for fantasy production, as they face four teams with poor-to-very-poor defenses (DAL, NO, ATL, and IND) along with two of the biggest “pass funnel” defenses in the league in TB and BAL. The Giants’ defense has been solid for much of the season, but we could/should see some key players on that side of the ball shut down as the season winds down as well. Put it all together, and guys like Nabers and Tracy profile as potential league winners who should be the engines of this offense down the stretch. Nabers leads the league in targets per game at 11.8, and given the context of the team, that number could even rise from here. 

Fantasy Playoffs::

  • Week 15 -- vs Ravens 

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 6th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 17th

  • Week 16 -- at Falcons

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 14th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 28th

  • Week 17 -- vs Colts

    • Run Defense DVOA -- 16th

    • Pass Defense DVOA -- 19th

Join us Friday for the NFC North Midseason Recap!