Mike's Week 4 Player Grid

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Here’s today’s feature from the Daily Dose…

By :: Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my FanDuel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections). I like all of these plays on all sites unless otherwise noted:

Running Back ::

• Omarion Hampton – Don’t overthink it. Checks every box (talent/draft profile, volume, game environment, matchup) and is moderately priced. High floor and the potential for him to showcase a previously unseen ceiling. The Giants also have faced relatively mundane rushing offenses so far, and this is the best rushing matchup the Chargers have seen this season.

• Christian McCaffrey – Another easy click, CMC is AVERAGING 11 targets per game. The workload is insane, and at some point, he is going to have a two- or three-touchdown game, which will make him a must-have on that Sunday.

• Bucky Irving – Irving has at least four targets in every game, scoring just under 10 points per game through his receiving alone. He has yet to score a rushing touchdown or run for over 100 yards, which are both surely to happen at some point. Bucky had 29 opportunities last week as the Bucs need him to move the ball while their wide receivers are dealing with injuries. Finally, the Bucs get All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs back this week, which significantly improves Irving’s outlook.

• Kyren Williams – The Rams have the third-highest team total on the slate behind the Bills and Lions. Kyren is the workhorse RB and is priced in the mid-tier, while facing a defense that is solid but not elite. 

• Jonathan Taylor – This may seem like stat chasing, but I don’t care. The level JT is playing at and his insane usage make him someone we have to consider every week unless it is a special circumstance. Priced as the RB5 and a full $1,000 below CMC, Taylor can drop 30 in any matchup.

For The MME Crowd ::

• James Cook – Almost left him off, but he must at least be mentioned. Cook has over 20 DK points in every game this year and an elite matchup on tap with the Saints. The biggest risk factors here are the chances this game gets out of hand and the always looming potential for Josh Allen to steal a rushing TD or two.

• TreVeyon Henderson – This one will catch people a little off guard, but I think this is the Henderson breakout week. New England is desperate for an offensive spark and he can be that guy. The other two Patriots RBs who have been playing ahead of him fumbled a combined three times last week. Finally, Henderson’s struggles have been in pass protection, but Carolina has a very low blitz rate. All things are lining up for Henderson to be a cheap and explosive option who sees a spike in usage in a great matchup. A GPP delight.

• Cam Skattebo – The Giants offense needs a spark and Skattebo can be that guy. He plays with a high level of energy and should be a bell cow with Tyrone Tracy Jr. inactive. His expected role, along with his salary, makes him someone we must consider because of what he opens up for the rest of the roster.

Tight End :: 

• Tyler Warren – Elite role and talent. His salary will eventually spike, but it won’t happen until he has a big week that we need at his position.

• Brock Bowers – This is his best matchup of the season and he should have his biggest role of the season. Sometimes it is just that simple.

• Juwan Johnson and Hunter Henry – Volume is king, and these two lead all tight ends who are on this slate in targets entering this week. 

Defense :: 

• Bills – We could easily see another game like last week’s, where the Seahawks dominated New Orleans start to finish. Buffalo has an offense that can and should build a big lead, which will allow the defense to make plays as it goes on.

• Chargers – Perfectly positioned to ruin the starting debut for Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart. It wouldn’t be shocking for Dart to have a solid game here, but he is also a player who has an extremely wide range of outcomes and could make multiple mistakes against a very good defense.

• 49ers – San Francisco lost Nick Bosa, but the 49ers defense is structured in a way that if they can build a lead, they could force Trevor Lawrence to be more aggressive and capitalize on his mistakes.

• Browns – Cleveland ranks second in yards per play allowed despite facing the Bengals, Ravens, and Packers. They are one of the best defenses in the league and are minimum price. They also play Jared Goff on a short week. I’ve done crazier things.

Premium Passing Game Stacks

Los Angeles Rams (IND)

This one isn’t rocket science. The Rams have an incredibly concentrated and talented pair of wide receivers and face a Colts team that they should have success against. This spot gets a bit better with the Colts starting slot cornerback, Kenny Moore II, missing this game. It would be a mild upset if one of them doesn’t put up 25+ points, while Puka has paths to lapping the position altogether if things go a certain way.

Los Angeles Chargers (NYG)

The Chargers are the team with the highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL and face the Giants, who rank 30th in defensive DVOA. Giants opponents have run 70, 76, and 72 plays during regulation over the first three weeks, with all three teams having their season high in snaps against the Giants. The quick math on that says that the Chargers (who already run 66 plays per game) are likely to surpass 70 this week as well. If their high pass rate continues, they are likely to have around 40 pass attempts. The injury to Najee Harris has people focused on RB Omarion Hampton (who is a great play this week as well), but the team having only one healthy running back they really trust to play at a high level basically ensures that pass rate stays high for the foreseeable future.

BONUS :: LIONS & EAGLES

These are two situations where offenses we have reason to believe will have success and score points may be forced to do so through the air at a much higher rate than they are used to. The Lions have the second-highest team total on the slate but have a very tough matchup with this Browns run defense. Cleveland is aggressive and leads the league in man-coverage rate, which gives Detroit a path to a lot of big plays. Meanwhile, the Eagles showed their passing game’s upside last week against the Rams and face a Bucs team with a stout defensive front that will make running the ball difficult. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Eagles feed off last week’s success in the passing game.

GPP Game Stack Of The Week

Chicago Bears // Las Vegas Raiders

The Bears’ passing game hit in a big way in Week 3. The only problem was that things were spread out, and the Cowboys lost CeeDee Lamb in the first quarter. After several self-inflicted mistakes, this game became uncompetitive late. This week, we have another terrific game environment and both offenses have a path to being more condensed. Tight ends Colston Loveland (CHI) and Michael Mayer (LV) are both set to miss this game. Neither team is very good at running the ball, which should lead to elevated pass rates on both sides with each team having success doing so. Chip Kelly and Ben Johnson are also known for playing with fast tempo, so there is a clear path to this game having both high play volume and offensive efficiency.

UNIQUE COMBOS

TreVeyon Henderson + Omarion Hampton (and/or Cam Skattebo)

I outlined above why I am high on Henderson this week. We know Henderson will draw low ownership this week, but we should also consider the fact that most people who do play him will use him as a “price point pivot” off the popular cheap RBs on the slate, and use their second RB spot on one of the week’s expensive options. This creates a way for us to create a unique roster by using Henderson WITH Hampton or Skattebo. This structure gives us excess salary to pay up for elite players with high ceilings at the other positions. Additionally, if you were to play Henderson with BOTH Hampton and Skattebo, it provides another level of unique build since the latter two are playing in the same game. 

Chris Olave + Juwan Johnson

This duo has combined for 27 or 28 DK points in each of the first three weeks despite only having one combined touchdown and neither surpassing 100 yards in a game. The volume will almost certainly be there again in this matchup with Buffalo, and the Bills defense is missing a couple of key pieces. It wouldn’t be shocking for one or both of them to score a touchdown here, and the duo seems likely to easily combine for 12+ receptions. Each of them will carry some ownership as their volume makes them project well, but the stink of the Saints offense will keep people from playing them together. The combined salary is $9.3k and the floor of roughly 25 and ceiling of 40-ish points is pretty appealing when you look at what it opens up for the rest of your roster as well.

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