Mike's Week 16 Player Grid

By :: Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my FanDuel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections):

Running Back ::

• Bijan Robinson – The best play on the slate. Atlanta’s offense should have a ton of success in this one and Bijan is their engine in an elite matchup.

• Jahmyr Gibbs – AVERAGING 32 DK points per game in Lions wins, compared to only 12 in losses. Detroit is a 7-point favorite this week and has a 29.5-point implied team total.

• De’Von Achane – Achane has a more questionable situation than Gibbs and Bijan, but the matchup is terrific and he will undoubtedly be a huge part of the offense.

• Omarion Hampton – Hampton has played two games since returning from injury and has 15 touches on 23 snaps in one game and 16 touches on 24 snaps in the other. He is a centerpiece of this offense and his role should continue to grow. Dallas should pump more play volume into the game than the Chiefs and Eagles the last two weeks, while the Chargers are likely to lean on Hampton as they chase the AFC West title.

• Javonte Williams – In the same game as Hampton, Javonte has a terrific matchup against a bad Chargers run defense (29th in run defense DVOA, 28th in PFF run defense grade). There is slight concern about workload as Malik Davis has been used more recently, but Williams could easily go over 100 yards and always has multi-touchdown potential in this offense.

• Michael Carter – Should have a huge role in a potential shootout. Very capable pass catcher and provides some solid salary cap relief.

Tight End :: 

• Travis Kelce – The Titans are tough to run on and Rashee Rice is out, which should make Kelce a focal point for the Chiefs offense down the stretch.

• Darren Waller – Tight ends against the Bengals hurt us last week, but Waller’s salary and skill set in this matchup with a young QB who is likely to lean on him makes him very appealing and his ownership is likely to be lower because of the QB change.

• Harold Fannin Jr. – The matchup is very tough on paper, but if Shedeur Sanders keeps peppering him with targets (30% target share in Sanders starts, 12.5 targets per game in last two weeks) the matchup shouldn’t matter much.

Defense :: 

• Texans – Every lineup should start with the Texans as their defense and figure it out from there. You have to justify why you are saving the salary to go away from this spot.

• Bills – A lot of Shedeur Sanders dropbacks is a good thing for an opposing fantasy defense.

• Vikings – Call me crazy, but a Brian Flores defense against a rookie quarterback at low salary and ownership seems like a good spot.

GPP Game Stack Of The Week

Atlanta Falcons // Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have allowed 40+ points to four of their last six opponents, and while Atlanta may not have the firepower to do that, the Falcons are extremely likely to move the ball with ease and put up points. The Cardinals have been a source of fantasy football goodness for over a month now and there is no reason to expect that to come to an end this week. The returns of Drake London and Marvin Harrison Jr. leave this spot as one with less certainty but also will keep a lot of people from fully stacking it how they could/should. 

Premium Passing Game Stacks

Detroit Lions (PIT)

The Steelers are playing without T.J. Watt and play a high rate of man coverage, while ARSB and Jameson Williams are nightmares to cover man to man. ARSB’s toughness, route running, and hands make him elite against solo coverage, while the speed of Williams is so tough to contain on the fast track in the dome. Losing Watt means Jared Goff is likely to have a clean pocket, which is huge for his efficiency historically. The Steelers on the other side of this with DK Metcalf and/or Kenneth Gainwell as clear correlation pieces make stacks that much more appealing.

Denver Broncos (JAX)

Nothing about the matchups in this game really stands out as the offensive players are all “solid, but not spectacular” types and the defenses are both very good. However, this is a spot where there is a strong potential for the game script to play out in a higher-scoring way because of how the offenses interact more so than defensive deficiencies that get exploited. From that lens, this game has a lot of possibilities because we get teams who could score a lot of points while their players have middling salaries. Bo Nix is in a spot that it wouldn’t be surprising at all for him to be very effective in. Nix has scored 20+ fantasy points six times this season. In five of those games, the Broncos opponent scored 24 or more points. The one exception was the Bengals, who Denver beat 28-3 while Jake Browning was their quarterback. This game has a 47.5-point total, and as we have discussed/explored, there are clear paths to the upside here.

Unique Combos

Quinn Ewers + De’Von Achane + Darren Waller  

The Bengals have been destroyed by running backs and tight ends all season, so one time that it fails for the Ravens isn’t enough to get me off of it. Achane and Waller have elite setups and Ewers isn’t a lock to be terrible. The offense has been solid with Tua struggling and limited in what he can do for most of the season, so there is a very real chance they are equal or even better with Ewers this week, as he could actually unlock some things that other teams won’t have on film. This isn’t the same as Max Brosmer starting in Seattle against an elite defense – Ewers has a legit path to a very good fantasy game, and these are the two who would likely benefit from that.

Omarion Hampton + Jake Ferguson

We’ve already touched on the spot for Hampton, but what about the Dallas side? If Hampton’s role is expanding and he is having a big game (relatively strong chance), then the Cowboys are likely taking to the air at an elevated rate. The Chargers defense is very strong on the perimeter but ranks 28th in DVOA against tight ends. This doesn’t mean CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will be totally shut down, but if the Chargers are able to score a lot and control this game to force Dallas into a very aggressive mode, it wouldn’t be shocking for Ferguson to see a lot of usage and be very productive doing so. We’ve seen him have double-digit targets in trailing game scripts before and know he has multi-TD upside every week in this offense. His salary was $6k not too long ago and is now just above $4k while carrying sub-5% ownership.