Mike's Week 14 Player Grid

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my FanDuel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections):

Running Back ::

• James Cook – Cook is coming off a 35-touch performance against a solid Steelers defense and now has one of the best possible matchups for a running back in a critical matchup. Elite talent, volume, matchup, and game environment.

• Josh Jacobs – Jacobs had a full practice on Friday and handled 18 touches last week against Detroit. The engine of Green Bay’s offense should be busy in an elite matchup and high-leverage game. Salary down $1,000 from its peak.

• Breece Hall – Let’s not forget that Miami was a defense we were targeting not that long ago. A recent improvement in performance doesn’t make them a team to avoid and Hall has elite talent and volume on his side at a reasonable salary.

• Kenneth Walker – A week after being extremely popular, Walker has an even better matchup at lower ownership in a game Seattle’s offense is highly likely to be successful in. 

• RJ Harvey – The Broncos are going to use multiple RBs, but Harvey is the primary guy and this spot is elite for the entire team. He catches some passes and is the goal-line back. Denver might roll in this one and Harvey’s ceiling is enormous with 20-touch potential.

• De’Von Achane – His salary is really starting to get up there, but the Jets just gave up a massive game to Bijan, and in this spot, I would expect Achane to be targeted often in the passing game. 

• Quinshon Judkins – I don’t expect the Titans offense to have much success, which means elevated play volume for the Browns, who are focused on getting Judkins the ball at a high rate. The overall game environment is low, but he has a high probability of being involved in any touchdowns Cleveland scores.

Tight End :: 

• Brenton Strange – Sub-$4k and double-digit points in four of his last five games despite only scoring one touchdown during that time.

• Colston Loveland – An elite talent in an expanded role, Loveland’s spot this week is outstanding with Rome Odunze sidelined and his salary at only $3,200.

• Tyler Warren – Expecting Warren to be involved from the outset in this one in a great matchup and high-leverage spot for the Colts.

Defense :: 

• Browns – Not rocket science. Cleveland is an elite defense that forces sacks and turnovers; the Titans are an anemic offense that takes a lot of sacks and is prone to turnovers.

• Broncos – Not rocket science. Denver is an elite defense that forces sacks and turnovers, and the Raiders are an anemic offense that takes a lot of sacks and is prone to turnovers.

• Jets – New York’s defense has been improving and they are cheap this week while getting to face Tua Tagovailoa in cold weather. 

GPP Game Stack Of The Week

Los Angeles Rams // Arizona Cardinals

The Rams are very likely to score a lot of points, with the production coming in fairly predictable ways. The Cardinals are, once again, a team for us to target as Jacoby Brissett is likely to throw the ball 40+ times and their passing game is very concentrated with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride each strong candidates for 10+ targets. No weather concerns. An elite offense facing a weak defense. A concentrated offense that will likely have massive pass volume. Sign me up.

Premium Passing Game Stacks

Cincinnati Bengals (BUF)

Elite players can overcome difficult matchups. The Bengals trio of Burrow / Chase / Higgins is back together for only the third time this season. Once was in Week 1 against an elite Browns defense, the other was Week 2 when Burrow went down in the first half. That’s it. The Bills are going to score almost at will on the Bengals, and almost all of it will flow through Josh Allen and James Cook. This will leave the Bengals no choice but to let it rip. When they do that, we want to be on board. Chase is priced below the other elite receivers but has the highest ceiling of the group, while Higgins is always an elite GPP play. Both Burrow and Higgins are projected for mid-single-digit ownership in the highest game total of the week.

Jacksonville Jaguars (IND)

Early in the week when just toying with different builds, “Lawrence-Doubles” with a Colts WR or TE was one of the main things I gravitated towards without any research, just based on salaries, game upside, and what it opened up for the rest of the roster. Usually, those spots that stand out to me end up very popular. I just looked at the ownership for the Jaguars on Saturday morning, and it appears this isn’t going to be popular at all. Additionally, JM is also interested in this spot. It is very rare for those three things to converge (spot that immediately stood out, JM also loves it, but it is going to be very low-owned) for me, so when it does, I don't question it. 

Unique Combos

Josh Allen + Trey McBride + Denver Defense (or CLE)

What do these three have in common? All are capable of lapping the field at their respective positions. Would it be shocking for Allen to score 40 points, and no one else at QB goes for over 25? No. Would it be shocking for McBride to score 30+ while no other tight end goes over 20? No. Would it be shocking for Denver and/or Cleveland to put up a massive game like Seattle’s defense did in Week 13, while no other defense goes over 15? No. All of these spots will draw modest ownership, but due to the salary structure of the slate, it is unlikely that many rosters will combine two of these spots, and hardly any will pay top dollar at all three positions. If you want to take this a step further, an angle I’ve been toying with is using Samaje Perine and Blake Corum as the running backs on this roster. The “story” for McBride smashing is largely based on the Rams dominating and building a huge lead, which is the game script where Corum could see 15 touches in a great matchup. The “story” for Allen scoring 40 is also based on Cincinnati pushing the game, while Perine is essentially the “40” in a 60/40 timeshare of the Bengals backfield. Playing these two together, with Allen + McBride, correlates it all and brings it all together with a clean story on how you get to first place. Additionally, this leaves you with enough salary for very solid wide receivers with high ceilings that can take you to the top.

Colston Loveland + Harold Fannin Jr. 

Two rookie tight ends, what could go wrong? In all seriousness, this is mainly about roster construction and recognizing the slate. There are some elite running backs in great spots, but also a lot of wide receivers priced over $5k who have clear paths to big games. There are also high-priced defenses that are in position to post a “must-have” score. This means that if we can save salary at multiple spots while giving ourselves a path to ceiling performances, we need to do it. Both of these players are extremely talented and should be integral parts of their offense, but the basic idea here is that two cheap tight ends together open up a lot of possibilities.