Mike's Week 12 Player Grid

Mike Johnson's Top Plays and Stacks for Sunday's Slates

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And now for today’s feature from the Daily Dose…

By :: Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)

Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. The format will vary slightly from JM’s Player Grid, as we each see things slightly differently and play in slightly different contests, but should complement his thoughts and content very well for those looking to build their lineups for the week. The format of this article will vary slightly from my FanDuel Player Grid, which will be more direct in terms of which players I like. Enjoy!!

The Core

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts (which we will also touch on) with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. This section will focus primarily on three positions – running back, tight end, and defense – as the other two positions (quarterback and wide receiver) tend to have more dependent tendencies which I try to attack from other angles (which we will get into in the other sections):

Running Back ::

  • Jahmyr Gibbs – Elite talent on an explosive offense facing arguably the worst run defense in the league.

  • TreVeyon Henderson – The genie is out of the bottle. Rhamondre is back, but this is the best possible matchup for a running back and TreVeyon is that dude in the New England backfield. Rhamondre is cheap enough that you can make the case for him as well on certain builds.

  • Kenneth Walker – The schematic matchup with the Titans defense fits Walker’s explosive skill set on outside runs perfectly. Walker has been outplaying Zach Charbonnet and it is time for that torch to be passed.

  • Bhayshul Tuten // Travis Etienne – The Cardinals have given up over 40 points in consecutive games while the Jaguars lean heavily on their running game since their Week 8 bye and have scored 29+ points in all three games during that time.

  • Saquon Barkley – The Cowboys have made improvements to their defensive personnel and the Eagles are without Lane Johnson….but Barkley has explosive ability and this sets up as a spot where he could really take off.

  • Chase Brown – More of a median play than a ceiling one, but in a potentially high-scoring game (like all Bengals games are) Brown could post a big score thanks to his high-volume role. Prefer him in game stacks.

Tight End :: 

  • Trey McBride – Just a monster. A near-lock for double-digit targets and 70+ receiving yards, the floor is solid and clear paths to ceiling.

  • Kyle Pitts Sr. – Pitts had a 29% target share against the Dolphins with Kirk Cousins under center and Drake London out. At only $4,300, he is a pretty easy click this week.

  • Dallas Goedert – Goedert had his third-highest target total of the season (seven) in the first matchup with Dallas as they forced all the throws underneath. He has an underrated red-zone role that people have forgotten about due to the low-scoring games the Eagles have played recently.

Defense :: 

  • Browns – The Raiders are 27th in turnovers per game and sack percentage, while Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the league. 

  • Lions – Jameis giveth.

  • Saints – New Orleans has a better defense than its record indicates and the Falcons laid a complete egg the last time Cousins was under center.

GPP Game Stack Of The Week

New York Giants // Detroit Lions

Death. Taxes. Jameis Winston wild game environments. Lions smashing bad defenses at home. Four things we can count on. The Giants leaned heavily on the run last week in nasty winds and against a depleted Packers offense that wasn’t able to push them and played conservatively. The Lions are likely to shred the Giants defense on the ground and destroy them through the air on play-action passing and in-breaking routes to ARSB and Jameson Williams. New York won’t be able to run against Detroit and Jameis will be doing a Jacoby Brissett-from-Weeks-10-and-11 impression, chucking it for three-plus quarters to his stable of cheap pass catchers. It’s a few days early, but I am thankful for Dan Campbell and Jameis Winston.

Premium Passing Game Stacks

Philadelphia Eagles (DAL)

The Eagles have been the most maddening offense in the league as their offensive production all season has disappointed relative to their talent on that side of the ball – but they have an 8-2 record so they’ve been able to get away with it for most of the year. This is a spot where they could capitalize, and the Cowboys have the offensive talent to push them to be more aggressive, along with a defense that is prone to getting burned on the perimeter. Talented players in good matchups at depressed prices and modest ownership. Saddle up.

Cincinnati Bengals (NE)

(UPDATE: Joe Burrow wasn’t activated from injured reserve Saturday and is therefore ruled out for Sunday’s game)

Joe Burrow has a real shot to play and the Patriots are one of the bigger “pass-funnel” defenses in the league, ranking 13th in run defense DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA. The Patriots offense is going to score points in this game and there is no reason this can’t be the biggest game in the box score for Drake Maye all season, which would push the Bengals passing game to new heights as Burrow would be forced to let it rip. Theory holds if it is Flacco, but with much less confidence and more likely working in a “Brissett early garbage time” way than a “Burrow initiates a shootout” way.

Unique Combos

Dirt-Cheap Stacks

As discussed on this week’s episode of “The Workshop” (available to Inner Circle members which, by the way, if you aren’t already an IC member – now is the best time possible to give it a shot), the salary structure on DraftKings makes it so these insanely cheap stacks are available to us that have asymmetric upsides relative to their costs and will give you a unique construction while opening up everything else. There are a few spots this week that stand out to me, and those are::

  • Jameis Winston + Isaiah Hodgins (or Theo Johnson)

  • Tyrod Taylor + Adonai Mitchell (or Mason Taylor)

  • Kirk Cousins + Kyle Pitts Sr. (or KhaDarel Hodge)

  • Shedeur Sanders + Harold Fannin Jr.

Bhayshul Tuten + Trey McBride

The Jaguars are going to run the ball at a high rate and have an outstanding matchup against a reeling Cardinals defense this week. Tuten was in the midst of a backfield takeover and is, at worst, in an even timeshare with Travis Etienne at this point. Both backs left last week with mild injuries but have been cleared for this matchup. However, Tuten’s ankle issue is easy to tape up and go with. Etienne has a shoulder issue that requires him to not take any contact this week and is much more easily aggravated when taking hits. Tuten is only $4,600 and has explosiveness to where he can put up a big game on his likely 14-17 touches, but he has a path to having a monster game if things break right. I don’t have to explain McBride, but pairing him with Tuten should immediately remove any concern you may have about McBride’s likely massive ownership.