Fantasy Fallout: Week 16

By: Billy Gabelman (StatATL) and Mike Johnson (Mjohnson86)

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Daily Dose newsletter, our “Fantasy Fallout” day. In this article, you will get a quick rundown of the relevant things we learned from the week’s games from Thursday through Sunday. 

We won’t talk about every single player and we usually won’t spend time on studs who go nuts (no one needs to be told to start Saquon Barkley right now!), but rather, the idea is to update you on usage trends, injuries, and other relevant things to help your decisions with your teams.

Broncos @ Chargers

• Justin Herbert threw for 284 yards and two TDs as the Chargers rallied back to beat Denver, 34-27. 

• Gus Edwards rushed for 68 yards and two TDs, his best performance of the season. The Chargers face the Patriots next week, and Edwards will be in fantasy consideration against a weak NE run D

• Courtland Sutton’s 5-50 performance was his worst fantasy outing in almost 2.5 months. He remains heavily involved and should still be started with confidence.

Texans @ Chiefs

• Tank Dell turned six catches into 98 yards and a TD but was carted off the field with a knee injury. A situation to monitor, but it appears his season is over.

• After being unable to finish the game last week, Patrick Mahomes threw for 260 yards and a TD and added another with his longest rush TD of his career as KC defeated HOU, 27-19.

• Joe Mixon struggled against KC’s stout run defense but remained heavily involved, logging 15 touches for the 10th straight week. 

Steelers @ Ravens

• Lamar Jackson threw for 207 yards and three TDs as the Ravens defeated the Steelers and officially punched their ticket to the 2024 postseason.

• Zay Flowers led the Ravens in receiving, notching his fifth 100-yard game of the season. The sophomore WR surpassed 1,000 yards for the season and has been a reliable option for BAL this season.

• Baltimore RB Justice Hill left the game with a concussion and didn’t return. A situation to monitor. If Hill were to miss extended time, rookie Rasheen Ali would likely see his role grow. 

• Jaylen Warren had his best game of the season, leading the team in both rushing and receptions. 

Giants @ Falcons

• Michael Penix, the eighth overall pick in last season’s draft for Atlanta, made his first NFL start and led the Falcons to a 34-7 victory over the helpless NY Giants.

• Bijan Robinson converted 24 touches into 103 total yards and two TDs as Atlanta continued to lean on its star RB. 

• Drake London left the game in the second half with a hamstring injury and did not return. A situation to monitor. Darnell Mooney led the team in receptions and receiving yards and would be the biggest benefactor if London were to miss time.

Lions @ Bears

• Jared Goff threw for 336 yards and three TDs as the Lions defeated the Bears to remain atop the NFC. Goff has had a strong second half and is a sneaky start for any team streaming QB in the fantasy playoffs.

• With David Montgomery out with a knee injury, Jahmyr Gibbs saw 27 touches, totaling 154 yards and a TD. He has the potential to be a league winner. Backup RB Craig Reynolds only saw five touches in a 34-17 victory. 

• Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta all produced solid fantasy days (all scored TDs).

• Keenan Allen exploded for 141 yards and a TD on 13 targets. The Bears have lost nine straight and will likely be in trailing game scripts the next two weeks.

Cardinals @ Panthers

• Chuba Hubbard rushed for 152 yards and two TDs as the Panthers defeated the Cardinals, 36-30, in OT. The loss eliminates Arizona from playoff contention.

• The loss spoiled a strong day from James Conner, who led the Cardinals in both rushing (117 yards and a TD) and receiving. Conner also left the game with a knee injury in the second half, and that, along with the team’s elimination from the playoffs, seems to make it unlikely he plays again this season.

Rams @ Jets

• The Rams leaned on Kyren Williams, who ran for 122 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Matthew Stafford only attempted 19 passes as the Rams beat the Jets, 19-9.

• Davante Adams continued his strong second half since his trade to the Jets, once again leading the team in receiving. He’s posted four straight games with 17+ fantasy points and should continue to be started in your fantasy playoffs.

Eagles @ Commanders

• The Commanders turned the ball over five times, but Jayden Daniels overcame the mistakes to throw for 258 yards and five TDs. He also rushed for 81 yards. The No. 2 overall pick is a strong start against the Falcons next week.

• Olamide Zaccheaus turned in his best game of the season, turning eight targets into 70 yards and two TDs. Dyami Brown left the game with an injury and didn’t return. Zaccheaus would likely be in line for an increased role if Brown were to miss time.

• Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter and did not return. Kenny Pickett filled in admirably, but the Eagles leaned heavily on Saquon Barkley in Hurts’ absence. A situation to monitor. Barkley rushed for 150 yards and two TDs

• A.J. Brown saw a season-high 15 targets, and converted them into 97 yards and a TD. He’s seen an uptick in involvement the past two weeks.

Browns @ Bengals

• Joe Burrow threw for 252 yards and three TDs as the Bengals won their third straight game to keep their slim playoff chance alive.

• Chase Brown once again dominated the backfield touches for Cincy, with his third game of 20 or more touches (and sixth out of the last seven games). He remains locked into a borderline workhorse role.

• Dorian Thompson-Robinson drew the start for Cleveland and turned the ball over twice as the Browns were limited to just six points.

• Jerome Ford started with Nick Chubb and turned 16 touches into 131 total yards and a TD. If he’s available on your waiver wire, he’s a priority add this week.

Titans @ Colts

• Jonathan Taylor exploded for 218 yards and three TDs on 29 carries as the Colts defeated the Titans, 38-30.

• Anthony Richardson only attempted 11 passes and threw for 131 yards and a TD to go along with 70 rushing yards and a TD. Richardson is a viable starter again next week as the Colts face the NY Giants.

• Chig Okonkwo led the Titans with nine catches and 81 yards on 11 targets as Mason Rudolph started at QB for TEN. It’s Okonkwo’s second straight week leading the Titans in receiving and he is an intriguing streaming option at TE moving forward. 

Vikings @ Seahawks

• Sam Darnold and the Vikings improved their record to 13-2 with an impressive road victory over the Seahawks. Darnold had a big game with 246 passing yards and three TDs, with all of the touchdowns and 73% of the yardage flowing through his elite WR duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. All are locked-in starters for next week’s showdown with the red-hot Packers.

• Minnesota RB Aaron Jones had 24 opportunities compared to only one for Cam Akers. This backfield belongs to Jones and the Vikings will lean on him heavily for their key remaining games against Green Bay and Detroit.

• Seattle QB Geno Smith had a strong game and, similar to Darnold, most of his production went to his top two WRs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf. 

• Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker left this game with an ankle injury. Seattle faces the Bears’ terrible run defense next week, and if Walker is unable to play Thursday on a short week, Zach Charbonnet will be a locked-in RB1.

Patriots @ Bills

• New England gave the Bills a scare early, getting a 14-0 lead before self-destructing. Patriots QB Drake Maye has now scored 18+ fantasy points in seven of 10  starts. He faces the Chargers next week.

• Patriots RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson had a relatively even split in touches, but Stevenson got the touchdown. Stevenson is a Flex play next week, while Gibson is only an option in the deepest of leagues.

• Bills QB Josh Allen predictably came back to earth in a game where his opponent did not have an offense that forced him to put on his Superman cape. 

• Next week against the Jets will be interesting for the Bills, pending the Chiefs’ results from Christmas Day. If Kansas City wins, they will clinch the #1 seed and Buffalo will have very little left to fight for the last two weeks. The Bills may not fully shut people down, but we could expect them to be even more liberal with their substitutions and they are already giving three RBs usage and had nine different players with a reception this week – none of them reached 30 receiving yards.

Jaguars @ Raiders

• Jaguars rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. continued to impress with his second consecutive game of 30+ points. You don’t need us to tell you to start him next week against the Titans.

• Jacksonville once again had an even split of backfield usage between Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, with Bigsby taking the touchdown and Etienne playing most passing downs.

• Raiders rookie TE Brock Bowers had another massive game and is setting records every week at this point.

• Ameer Abdullah continued his late season surge as the preferred passing down back and has thrived with Aidan O’Connell under center.

49ers @ Dolphins

• The 49ers finally ran out of running backs, as Patrick Taylor Jr. did the impossible and was unable to run the ball in the Kyle Shanahan scheme. The 49ers are eliminated from the playoffs but play the Lions next Monday night. We will have to wait and see about the availability of RB Isaac Guerendo and whether they shut anyone else down.

• The Dolphins stayed alive in the AFC playoff race with a win and play the Browns and Jets to end the season. RB De’Von Achane, WR Tyreek Hill, and TE Jonnu Smith should all be heavily involved as Miami controls what it can control and takes care of business against teams whose seasons have been over for some time now.

• We will have to see the status of Miami WR Jaylen Waddle, who missed this game with a knee injury. Rookie WR Malik Washington played 87% of the snaps in Waddle’s absence.

Buccaneers @ Cowboys

• Tampa Bay lost the game, and with it, its lead in the NFC South – the Bucaneers are now tied with Atlanta, who holds the tiebreaker. Next up is a date with the Panthers, who are playing their best football of the season and just eliminated the Cardinals.

• Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton missed this game and Payne Durham played 93% of the snaps in his absence, ending with five receptions for 29 yards. The Panthers were 32nd in DVOA against tight ends entering Week 16, so whoever starts next week for Tampa will be worth a look.

• Baker Mayfield continued his outstanding season with another 20+ point performance. He is likely to have two more strong outings to end the season against Carolina and New Orleans.

• Bucs rookie WR Jalen McMillan continues to impress, now recording four touchdown receptions in his last three games and leading the team in snaps and routes.

Join us Tuesday for Week 17 Waiver Targets!