Daily Dose: Fantasy Fallout, Week 1

Daily Dose Fantasy Fallout: Week 1

By: Billy Gabelman (StatATL)

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Daily Dose newsletter, our “Fantasy Fallout” day. In this article, you will get a quick rundown of the relevant things we learned from the week’s games from Thursday through Sunday.

We won’t talk about every single player and we usually won’t spend time on studs who go nuts (no one needs to be told to start Tyreek Hill right now!), but rather, the idea is to update you on usage trends, injuries, and other relevant things to help your decisions with your teams.

Ravens at Chiefs

• Ravens RB Justice Hill played on basically all third downs and in the two-minute drill, out-snapping Derrick Henry in a game the Ravens trailed throughout. He is worth a stash in deeper leagues.

• The Ravens played two tight ends (12 personnel) on 39 of 74 snaps (53%) while playing in a trailing game script. Looks like this staff is finally acknowledging that getting both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on the field at the same time is a good idea. Likely exploded for 9-111-1 and would have had a second TD as time expired had his second foot come down in bounds. Both are going to be a huge part of the team’s offense going forward. 

• While Xavier Worthy had 20 fantasy points in Week 1, he did so on only three targets and one rush. Not sure that efficiency is sustainable to make him an every-week starter on season-long teams. He will have ups and downs on a high-scoring offense.

Packers at Eagles

• Green Bay QB Jordan Love exited in the final minute with an apparent leg injury. Initial reports are a sprained MCL (out 3-4 weeks), but this is certainly a situation to monitor. 

• Saquon Barkley looked solid behind a strong offensive line (and in a better offensive environment) to the tune of 131 total yards and three TDs.

• Tucker Kraft out-snapped Luke Musgrave 64-17 while running 30 routes to Musgrave’s eight. He appears to be the TE1 in Green Bay’s eyes and is someone for those in need of a tight end to consider.

• Packers rookie RB Marshawn Lloyd was inactive and Emanuel Wilson played 24% of the team’s snaps as he spelled Josh Jacobs. 

Steelers at Falcons 

• Bijan Robinson had 23 of the Falcons’ 26 backfield opportunities (carries + targets) in the season opener. The new coaching staff seems to view him as the alpha in that backfield as Bijan eclipsed that number of opportunities only twice last season.

• Drake London drew just a 13% target share in a game the Falcons trailed most of the way. I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet, but certainly not a reassuring start for owners who took London in the first or second round.

• The RB opportunities for Pittsburgh ended up at 22 for Najee Harris and only four for Jaylen Warren. Warren did miss the past several weeks with a hamstring injury, but this is a situation to monitor going forward.

Cardinals at Bills

• The Arizona backfield belongs to James Conner, as he out-touched rookie Trey Benson 20-4. 

• Greg Dortch saw a 25% target share in a back-and-forth game. His role as the WR2 this season feels solidified, however he’s probably not worth a bench spot unless you’re in a deep (14- or 16-team) league.

• Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride struggled in this one but it is too early to panic. Both are still very talented and played over 85% of the snaps.

• Despite only 23 passing attempts, Josh Allen completed passes to nine different players, with Keon Coleman leading the way with four receptions on five targets. None of the Bills WRs or TEs appear to be “must-starts” for the time being.

Texans at Colts

• Joe Mixon appears to be the unquestioned bell cow back in Houston and received a league-leading 30 carries in a back-and-forth affair with Indy. He’s probably a RB I’d be looking to trade for.

• Despite a low fantasy-scoring game from Jonathan Taylor, he was the only Colts RB to touch the football.  

• Alec Pierce went for 24 points on DK with a line of 3-125-1. He saw just three targets however, and last year only had one game all season where he exceeded 13 fantasy points. Don’t get suckered into thinking he’ll be fantasy-relevant this season as the WR2 job will be back to Josh Downs in the next few weeks.

• The WR targets were evenly spread out for Houston, with Nico Collins leading the way with eight targets, which he converted into 117 yards on six receptions. Tank Dell saw seven targets and newly acquired Stefon Diggs saw six, catching two touchdowns. It appears this offense will once again be ripe for fantasy scoring; however, it will likely be hard to pinpoint which pass catcher it will come from on a week-in, week-out basis. 

Patriots at Bengals

• Rhamondre Stevenson handled 78% of the Patriots’ backfield rush attempts in Week 1, totaling 120 rushing yards and a TD. He was also the only RB to see a target (three). 

• Despite missing Tee Higgins, the Bengals’ offense was better than it appears, as they lost multiple fumbles, one at the goal line, to go along with a Mike Gesicki drop in the endzone. In an elevated role, Andrei Iosivas tied Ja’Marr Chase for the team lead in target share, with each receiving 21%.

• Zack Moss saw 75% of the RB carries in the game, including both carries inside the 10-yard line. He appears to be the RB you want to own from Cincy.

Vikings at Giants

• Sam Darnold looked quite competent in his first game replacing Kirk Cousins, as did Aaron Jones, who handled 60% of the backfield rushes and compiled 94 yards and a TD on the ground on 14 carries. 

• Jordan Addison left the game in the third quarter after aggravating his ankle injury. He left the locker room unassisted (aka not on crutches) but will likely be reevaluated on Monday. 

• Wan’Dale Robinson saw 12 targets, however almost all were low aDOT throws around the line of scrimmage. Second overall pick Malik Nabers saw seven targets, converting them into 66 yards. His output will likely continue to depend on Daniel Jones’ play and the struggling Giants offensive line.  

Commanders at Buccaneers

• Rachaad White saw the lion’s share of the RB touches but once again proved to be very inefficient, totaling 31 rushing yards on 15 attempts. Bucky Irving saw nine rush attempts but had considerably more juice on his way to 62 yards. He should be scooped up in any league where he is on waivers.

• Jayden Daniels is going to be a fun QB to watch this season. He totaled 88 yards rushing on 16 attempts and added two TDs on the ground while going 17 for 24 passing for 184 yards. 

• The Commanders’ WR room was disappointing, as RBs Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson, Jr. led the team with 52 and 49 receiving yards, respectively. 

Titans at Bears

• Gerald Everett played more snaps and ran more routes than Cole Kmet in the Bears’ Week 1 win over the Titans. The advantage in opportunity didn’t turn into  much, but he should be viewed as the preferred TE option in CHI going forward.

• Tony Pollard dominated the backfield opportunities (rushes + targets) 20-8 over Tyjae Spears, including a 16-4 advantage in rushing attempts. Despite coach Brian Callahan’s comments that the backfield would be an even split, Pollard appears to have an early leg up and appeared to have the spring back in his step.

• Despite finishing with only seven fantasy points, Keenan Allen saw a team-high 38% target share. DJ Moore soaked up a majority of the remaining targets, amassing a 28% target share himself. 

Panthers at Saints

• We are only one game into the year, but Bryce Young looked as bad, if not worse, than he did last year. Young threw two picks and was sacked four times in a game where the Panthers’ defense also looked completely outclassed, allowing 47 points to New Orleans. 

• Taysom Hill was moved around the formation for all four quarters. The most interesting development in his usage was an increase in his role as a true running back, where he saw four carries prior to Jamaal Williams coming into the game in mop-up duty. He should be rostered in all leagues where he has TE eligibility.

Jaguars at Dolphins 

• Tank Bigsby amassed 73 rushing yards on 12 carries, while Travis Etienne only accounted for 44 yards on 12 carries. Bigsby was part of the game plan on the ground starting as early as the Jaguars’ second drive, and that seems unlikely to change after Etienne also had a costly fumble near the goal line. 

• Tyreek Hill was detained prior to the game due to a minor traffic violation. It’s unlikely any discipline comes out of the incident.

• De’Von Achane accounted for 40% of the backfield carries as well as the second-most targets with seven, ahead of Jaylen Waddle’s five. This is extremely telling, as none of Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, or Alec Ingold sustained an injury and this could be indicative of increased usage for Achane in weeks ahead.    

Cowboys at Browns

• Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle were close to an even split out of the backfield, with Elliott receiving the goal-line work. 

• Jake Ferguson left the game early and will undergo an MRI on his knee on Monday. Any missed time by Ferguson would be a massive loss for the Cowboys’ offense, and this situation will be one to monitor.

• Jerome Ford operated as the Browns unquestioned lead back, amassing 18 opportunities on the day. No other Cleveland back saw more than two carries.

• David Njoku also left the game early, suffering an apparent ankle injury. Njoku will undergo further testing on Monday.

Broncos at Seahawks

• Bo Nix struggled mightily in his NFL debut, producing just 138 yards on 42 pass attempts and tossing two interceptions. As bad as that line is, it could have been much worse, as the Seahawks dropped multiple other would-be picks. 

• Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin saw a ton of targets and is likely going to be a factor in PPR leagues at some point soon.

• Some very promising usage for Kenneth Walker led to 103 yards (and a TD) on the ground on 20 carries. The new SEA coaching staff seems set on featuring him in the backfield. Walker left the game with an abdominal injury late in the second half, but he told reporters after the game he is fine.

Raiders at Chargers

• Making his NFL debut, rookie TE Brock Bowers led the Raiders in targets and receptions and was one of the few bright spots for the Las Vegas offense. Continue to start him at TE with confidence.

• For the Chargers, fellow UGA Bulldog Ladd McConkey, made his debut and led LA in targets and receptions, including a 10-yard TD in the fourth quarter to seal the game for the Chargers. 

• On the ground, the Chargers split work evenly between JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but Dobbins was FAR more effective while recording 139 total yards (and a TD) on 13 touches, compared to 28 total yards on 12 touches for Edwards. I’d favor Dobbins going forward until we see otherwise.

Rams at Lions

• Puka Nacua injured his knee in the first half, and after returning for a couple of plays, was ruled out for the second half. Cooper Kupp turned into a target machine with Nacua out and looked like his vintage self. He is a top-5 WR for as long as Nacua is out and a top-10 WR as long as he himself is healthy.

• Rams WR Tyler Johnson made a couple of big plays and Demarcus Robinson was more involved once Nacua left the game. Robinson becomes a priority waiver pickup and Johnson is a deep-league option who may split work with rookie Jordan Whittington if Nacua misses extended time.

• Kyren Williams had 19 opportunities and Ronnie Rivers had two, while Blake Corum did not touch the ball. This is still the Williams Show for the foreseeable future.

• Jameson Williams looked like the player the Lions thought they drafted two years ago as he led Detroit in every receiving category with 5 // 121 // 1 line on nine targets. He becomes a weekly consideration as a starter and could hurt the outlook for Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown, as they could have less dominant target shares.

• Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery had 17 and 18 opportunities, respectively. They are both weekly starters.