Starts/Fades Week 2

Daily Dose Starts/Fades: Week 2

By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)

This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value. 

“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents. 

“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc. 

Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 2 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:

QB

Start: Brock Purdy, QB, SF (at MIN)

• Purdy moved the ball well against a tough Jets defense on MNF in Week 1 without superstar dual-threat RB Christian McCaffrey and while the team seemed to ease newly-extended WR Brandon Aiyuk back into action.

• The Vikings blitzed at the highest rate in the league last season. They weren’t as aggressive Week 1, but they didn’t need to be against the lowly Giants.

• With or without CMC this week, I like Purdy to return QB1 value by beating the Vikings’ blitz packages with his ability to get the ball out quickly to some of the best run-after-catch weapons in the NFL.

Fade: Joe Burrow, QB, CIN (at KC)

• The Bengals were one of the biggest disappointments in the league in Week 1, losing as a touchdown favorite at home against the New England Patriots and scoring only 10 points.

• The Chiefs have one of the top defensive minds in the league in DC Steve Spagnuolo, who has familiarity with Burrow and the Bengals since the two teams have seemingly played at least once each of the past several seasons.

• Key WR Tee Higgins seems likely to miss his second consecutive game to open the year with a hamstring injury.

• Keep Burrow on benches in single-QB leagues this week if you have a reasonable replacement to fill in for him, as there will be better days ahead for the Bengals’ offense.

RB

Start: J.K. Dobbins, RB, LAC (at CAR)

• The new-look, run-first Chargers go on the road to take on a pathetic Panthers team who just put arguably their best overall player, DL Derrick Brown, on season-ending injured reserve.

• Dobbins outproduced teammate Gus Edwards in Week 1 with 139 scrimmage yards on 13 touches, far outpacing Edwards’ 28 scrimmage yards on 12 touches.

• Dobbins is a great RB2/flex option this week if he maintains a 50/50 split with Edwards, with further upside if he’s able to handle a greater share of the RB touches.

Fade: Tony Pollard, RB, TEN (vs NYJ)

• Pollard came out of the gates strong in Week 1 at Chicago, seemingly taking control of what was assumed to be a muddled backfield by handling 20 touches for 94 yards. In contrast, Tyjae Spears logged eight touches for 32 yards.

• The Titans scored first against the Bears, led by two scores at halftime, and controlled much of the game until mistakes on special teams and by QB Will Levis swung the game back in the Bears’ favor.

• Titans first-year HC Brian Callahan has indicated this week that he’d like to get Spears more opportunities and closer to a 50/50 split with Pollard.

• I believe that Pollard’s impressive Week 1 usage had more to do with a first-time HC navigating through a lopsided game script than the fact that he has completely lapped Spears for opportunities in the backfield. Consequently, I like the idea of fading him this week against a talented Jets defense licking their wounds coming off of a loss.

WR

Start: Chris Godwin, WR, TB (at DET)

• The Buccaneers, coming off a 37-20 win over the Commanders, go on the road at Detroit in a game with the highest total on the slate (51.5).

• Godwin caught all eight of his targets for 83 yards and a TD in Week 1, operating primarily as the team’s slot WR between star WR Mike Evans and rookie WR Jalen McMillan.

• We heard all offseason that new Bucs OC (and former Rams OC) Liam Coen would be using Godwin in the “Cooper Kupp role” in the Tampa Bay offense. Well, Kupp himself just generated a 14-110-1 line on a staggering 21 targets against these same Lions last week.

• I like Godwin as a mid-to-high end WR2 this week in PPR leagues and a no-brainer flex option in standard leagues in what is likely to be one of the higher-scoring games of the weekend.

Fade: DK Metcalf, WR, SEA (at NE)

• The Seahawks go on the road to New England in one of the three games with a total below 40 points this week.

• The Patriots’ defense features one of the rising defensive stars in the league in second-year CB Christian Gonzalez, who has shown the ability in his brief career to handle some of the toughest WR shadow assignments in the league. He was a key to the team holding Bengals star WR Ja’Marr Chase in check last week. 

• Metcalf was shadowed by one of the top CBs in the league last week in Pat Surtain II and was limited to three catches on four targets for 29 yards.

• Metcalf was drafted to be a starter and I’m usually in favor of sticking with my studs after a tough Week 1. This is simply a case of Metcalf facing two of the better CBs in the league back to back to start his year. I'm looking for other options to play over DK this week before his matchups start to look more favorable going forward.

TE

Start: Colby Parkinson, TE, LAR (at AZ)

• The Rams go on the road to Arizona in a high-total game (49.0).

• Parkinson acted as an every-down player for the Rams in starter Tyler Higbee’s absence, securing four of five targets for 47 yards in the team’s Week 1 loss at Detroit, good for TE7 on the week in PPR leagues.

• The Rams will be without star second-year WR Puka Nacua for at least a month after he was placed on short-term IR with a knee injury, leaving a void behind Cooper Kupp in the Rams’ passing game.

• I like Parkinson as a back-end TE1 this week based on being an every-down player with a good QB against one of the more exploitable defenses in the league; he's still available in more than half of Yahoo leagues for those in need of a spot start.

Fade: Isaiah Likely, TE, BAL (vs LV)

• It’s a challenging week to recommend a TE fade as three of the top 15 or so players drafted at the position (David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, Dalton Schultz) have either been ruled out already, or are at risk of missing Week 2.

• Likely burst onto the scene last week, was probably a high-priced waiver pickup in your league, and seems poised to maintain a healthy role in the Ravens’ offense. If you acquired him, you might be asking – why wouldn’t I start him?

• This comes down to your specific team. If you have one of the top 10 or so TEs drafted who is also currently healthy, I’d recommend starting that player over Likely this week. Most of those players are favorites to play nearly every snap for their offense and we’re just not sure that’s the case for Likely yet, especially in scenarios where the Ravens are playing from ahead.