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- Starts/Fades Week 3
By: Tony Kneepkens (@tonytk44)
This article is intended to highlight some players who may have a positive or negative weekly outlook relative to their baseline value.
“Starts” are players who might generally be on fantasy benches but might have a terrific perceived matchup or game script/environment, or the potential for an expanded role due to past performance or injuries to teammates or opponents.
“Fades” are players who were likely drafted as fantasy starters or have performed as automatic starters lately but face a particularly tough week due to a poor matchup or a lack of short-term role clarity due to an injury, etc.
Here are a few of my notable starts and fades for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, with some notes on my thought process included:
QB
Start: Jared Goff, DET (at AZ)
Through two weeks, Goff leads the league with 83 passing attempts but has only thrown a single TD pass. His 1.2% TD rate is significantly lower than his career average of 4.4%, and he’s had TD rates of 4.9% and 5.0% the past two seasons in Detroit.
Detroit travels to Arizona this week as three-point favorites in a game with the highest implied point total of the week (52.5).
I like the Lions to continue passing at a high rate and for Goff to return QB1 value by throwing multiple TDs to his talented pass catchers in what seems likely to be a shootout in the desert.
Fade: Baker Mayfield, TB (vs DEN)
Baker Mayfield is likely to be the highest-scoring fantasy QB in your league through two weeks. He’s thrown multiple TDs to each of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, another to rookie WR Jalen McMillan, and has run in a TD of his own this year.
The Bucs host the Broncos this week in one of five games with an implied total of under 40 points.
The Broncos defense, led by All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II, has been good against opposing passing games this season, holding both the Seahawks and Steelers under 200 passing yards; they have been especially stingy against WRs, the strength of Tampa Bay’s offense.
I like keeping Baker on benches in single-QB leagues this week in what projects as a low-scoring matchup against the Broncos.
RB
Start: Zack Moss, CIN (vs WAS)
Moss has flashed a well-rounded game for the Bengals and appears to be their first-choice RB in most situations, having out-touched teammate Chase Brown 24-10 through two weeks.
The Bengals have the highest implied team total on the Week 3 slate (28.0) in a home game against the Commanders on Monday Night Football.
The WAS defense has made early-season headlines for its ineptitude against opposing WRs, but it has also allowed RBs Rachaad White (106 scrimmage yards) and Devin Singletary (95 yards and a TD) to post solid fantasy scores this year. I like Moss to post RB2 numbers this week.
Fade: J.K. Dobbins, LAC (at PIT)
Dobbins has been one of the best RBs in fantasy through two weeks, accumulating 270 scrimmage yards and two TDs for the new-look Chargers in favorable matchups against the Raiders and Panthers.
This week, the Chargers play on the road as underdogs against a challenging Steelers defense, where they have one of the lowest implied team totals of the week (17.0).
Despite out-producing him significantly, Dobbins remains in a true 50/50 timeshare with teammate Gus Edwards (JK 31 touches, Gus 30 touches through two games).
Despite his early-season success for a Chargers team that seems bought into their new scheme and philosophy, I like keeping Dobbins on benches this week against a tough Steelers defense.
WR
Start: Xavier Worthy, KC (at ATL)
Rookie speedster Xavier Worthy maintains a strong role in the KC offense, trailing only Rashee Rice among Chiefs WRs in snaps, routes run, targets, and catches through his first two career games. He’s also handled a carry each week.
The Chiefs face the Falcons as road favorites, indoors, as one of six teams with an implied team total of 25 or higher this week.
Pure speculation here, but I like Worthy as a player who could benefit from star RB Isiah Pacheco’s absence while the team shakes out its new-look RB room. Pacheco not only leads the team in rushing production, he is second on the team with seven catches and third with 54 receiving yards.
I like playing Worthy this week as a back-end WR2 or high-end flex play based on his current role with KC, with major upside if he is afforded more opportunities in Pacheco’s absence.
Fade: Michael Pittman, IND (vs CHI)
Pittman was drafted as a starting-caliber WR for fantasy managers in drafts on the back of his efficient, volume-based, role in the Colts offense. He caught over 200 passes on nearly 300 targets over the past two seasons combined.
The Colts host the Bears as slight favorites in Week 3, in a game with a middling implied total (43.5). The Bears are coming off a solid defensive performance holding a high-powered Texans offense to 19 points on SNF.
While Pittman has maintained an impressive team target share this season, he has caught only seven of his 15 targets for 52 scoreless yards through two weeks. Second-year QB Anthony Richardson is completing less than half of his passes and has more INTs than TDs on the season.
Despite Pittman’s track record and healthy team target share, I believe he belongs on benches in most 12-team leagues this week. This specific matchup against the Bears appears tough, and the Colts still seem to be working through which passing concepts and personnel groupings best suit their young QB.
TE
With the current state of injuries and general lack of fantasy production at TE, I don't have recommendations for starts or fades at the position this week. If you have a reasonable TE option who is also healthy, they are likely a strong option to start this week.
If you are in need of a short-term fill-in at TE, my suggested streamer of the week will look eerily similar to last week’s recommended start:
Stream: Colby Parkinson, LAR (vs SF)
Parkinson disappointed as a recommended TE streamer last week in Puka Nacua’s absence, being targeted only twice in the Rams’ blowout Week 2 loss to the Cardinals by catching a single pass for 12 yards.
The Rams host the 49ers this week in a game with a middling implied total (44.5).
With yet another high-volume piece removed from the Rams’ passing game after Cooper Kupp’s ankle injury, I like going back to Parkinson this week if necessary, as he is very likely to be running routes on nearly all of Matthew Stafford’s pass attempts.