Black Friday Showdown: Bears at Eagles

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And now for today’s feature from the Daily Dose…

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get a Black Friday game, so listen up, people who want to avoid going shopping: tell your partner there’s a Showdown and that you need to play it so you can make some extra spending money for Christmas. This one has the Bears visiting the Eagles for a 44.5 total game with Philly favored by a touchdown. This is something of a battle of two often-dysfunctional teams that both still have winning records, with the Bears luck-boxing into an 8-3 record despite having given up more points than they’ve scored, and the Eagles also at 8-3, mostly on the back of a very solid defense. Let’s see if we can figure this one out. 

PHILADELPHIA

On the Eagles side, Saquon Barkley has an elite role, but he himself has been far from elite this year. He only has three games over 4 yards per carry and just one game of reaching the 100-yard bonus while scoring just 6 touchdowns in 11 games. Last game against Dallas, Philly basically gave up on running the ball fairly early on, despite playing from a lead, because Saquon was getting stuffed over and over again. This is a much more forgiving matchup as the Bears have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up more yards per attempt than even the Bengals. If there was ever a get-right spot for Saquon, this is it. Brand name alone has kept his price above $10k despite mediocre production for almost the entire season, so we aren’t exactly getting a discount, but on paper, this is a great spot as a big home favorite who is one of the few true bell cow backs in the league. RB2 Will Shipley and RB3 Tank Bigsby are both barely seeing any work, usually playing single-digit snaps per game. Dissly hasn’t even seen an offensive touch since Week 10 and has a grand total of 11 carries and 6 targets on the year, while Bigsby got some blowout run in Week 8 and seems to at least have some upside if the game gets out of hand. They’re both very thin plays.

In the passing game, we know the deal with Philly: DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown play almost every snap, Jahan Dotson is a half-time or so player, and some guy named Darius Cooper has played a handful of snaps. Smith and AJB are 1A and 1B, with Smith having consistently been better, but only by a relatively modest difference. We know that we generally look to AJB when playing teams that use heavy-man coverage schemes, and the Bears are pretty close to league average there, so that makes me lean towards Smith. Smith is also $1k cheaper, which is likely to make the field lean his way as well. They’re both solid plays. Smith is probably the slightly better play but will also come with slightly higher ownership. Dotson is a dart throw who has a season-high of 3 targets and has only reached double-digit DK points once.

At tight end, Dallas Goedert is another core part of the offense, but I remember the last time I wrote up an Eagles Showdown, I said something to the effect of “I don’t like guys who usually see only a few targets per game and only tend to find ceiling by scoring touchdowns.” Since then Goedert has failed to score touchdowns and has flopped in three straight games. Imagine that. This is a slightly different situation as his price has come down significantly to a season-low of $5,200, and at this point I’m much more willing to take the risk. He’s much more appealing when priced near the kickers than when he was at a season-high price of $7,400 the last time I had to write up the Eagles. He probably still needs a touchdown, but at this price and in a great matchup, I’m game here (I like the two primary wideouts more). TE2 Grant Calcaterra is another dart throw option. The Eagles run a really condensed offense: it’s Saquon, Smith, AJB, and Goedert, and that’s basically it.

CHICAGO

On the Bears side of things, D’Andre Swift was just out-snapped and out-touched by Kyle Monangai for the first time in a game in which they were both healthy. Swift ran poorly (15 yards on 8 carries) and lost a fumble, so perhaps that played into it, but worth noting that Swift had 22 and 21 touches in the two prior games, and he’s been very, very good this year. This does look like a split backfield, and as significant road underdogs, it makes the Bears running backs less appealing, except that Swift is $6,600 and Monangai is $5,600. There’s some volatility here, but given that Swift was coming off back-to-back 20+ touch games, I think it’s unlikely that he’s all of a sudden lost his job. He’s also the better receiver and pass blocker, and I expect he’ll play more if Chicago is playing from behind. At a discount price with passing game work and with potential touch upside, I actually like Swift here quite a bit. The matchup is bad against a really tough Philly defense, but he’s just too cheap for how he’s played this season. Monangai is a tougher sell in that he’s more of a 2-down back and is probably topping out at 10-12 touches; he’s also cheap enough to get there on limited work, but he fits a lot better in builds predicated on the Bears winning or at least keeping it close throughout. 

In the passing game, the Bears primary wideouts are Rome Odunze and DJ Moore, and then rookie Luther Burden has started to (finally) eclipse journeyman Olamide Zaccheaus for the WR3 role. Burden was truly terrible chalk on last week’s main slate but is much more appealing in a Showdown. This is a spot in which we can expect the Bears to throw more than normal (as they’re one of the more game script sensitive offenses in the league – they’d prefer not to put too much on Caleb Williams unless they have to), and his snaps are finally climbing. He has a lot of big-play ability, and at $3,800, he’s a strong on-paper value play. Given his chalk status last week and what I’m seeing in projections around the industry, I also expect him to be extremely popular. Odunze and Moore are priced right around AJB and Smith despite projecting much, much worse, which should really hold down the ownership…I like them both plenty. Odunze has multiple 10+ target games on the year when the Bears find themselves in an elevated pass volume game script, while after an excruciatingly slow start, Moore has finally found his footing in this offense, with two 23+ DK point games in the last four games. Volume has me liking Odunze more, even at a higher price, as Moore has topped out at just 7 targets this year, but both are certainly playable.

At tight end, rookie Colston Loveland is also seeing his role grow, while Cole Kmet’s has come down some. Loveland is really, really good and should not be $4,400 – there are a lot of cheap prices on guys in this Showdown, but his really sticks out to me. He has at least 40 yards in each of the Bears last four games – all of those performances are solid ones that wouldn’t hurt you at his price, and in two of those games, he delivered performances that would land him in optimal lineups. Kmet is still on the field a fair bit, but his pass volume has evaporated with just one game of over 2 targets since returning from injury in Week 9 (and only three games all year of more than 2 targets). He’s a thin dart throw. WR4 Olamide Zaccheaus has been passed by Burden and is also a very thin option at this point, with just 1 target in the last two games. 

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

The way this game probably plays out is for the Eagles to control it in their very slow, boring style. Philly is happy to sit on a lead and play cautiously (which burned them last week), which can choke the fantasy life out of a game. Worth noting: while being big favorites might draw us to the Eagles DST, Caleb Williams is only averaging a sack and a half taken per game and has thrown just 4 picks on the year. They’re certainly a viable play, but not quite the smash play that a good home defense that is a big favorite can often be. I think what we can bet pretty safely on is that at least 1 of the Eagles big 4 will find success, given the matchup, and that we can expect elevated pass volume from the Bears. 

CASH GAMES

In cash games, we can prioritize Hurts, Saquon, and Caleb in that order, and I think Swift deserves strong cash consideration given his price. The kickers are always viable in cash, and then Burden and Loveland make solid value options. If you find yourself in the high-mid range (the WRs), I’d prefer Smith as the best cash option.

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, Saquon’s the best captain choice, but I also want to be overweight on Smith, Odunze, and then a bit of Burden and Loveland. 

Some groups to consider ::

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs

• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)

• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team

• At least 1 of AJB, Smith, Saquon, and Goedert (most rosters will end up on this just by default, but, worth making sure!)

• At most 1 of Dotson, Cooper, and Calcaterra

• At most 1 of Burden, Kmet, and Zaccheaus

• At most 2 of Caleb, Swift, and Monangai

• For a general overview of Xandamere’s Showdown rules, refer here.