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OWS Fam,
In today’s Daily Dose, we dive into the AFC West.
Over the next 2 days, we will be delivering the final 2 divisions to your inbox.
Friday: AFC South
Saturday: AFC North
Find the NFC East, NFC West, NFC South, NFC North and AFC East previews here: https://owsdailydose.beehiiv.com/
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Team Previews are written by Hilow
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Jim Harbaugh was hired away from Michigan following the perfect season to make his triumphant return to the head coaching ranks at the NFL level; Greg Roman was brought in to serve as the offensive coordinator after a year away from the league
Defense: Harbaugh brought defensive coordinator Jesse Minter with him from Michigan to serve in the same position; Minter coached under Jim’s brother John in Baltimore for four years before joining the collegiate ranks
Personnel Changes ::
Signed RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, TEs Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, FB Ben Mason, DT Poona Ford, and CB Kristian Fulton
Drafted OT Joe Alt in the first round and WR Ladd McConkey in the second; third-round selection Junior Colson should push to start at LB in camp
Released WR Mike Williams and LB Eric Kendricks and allowed RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett to walk in free agency; traded WR Keenan Allen to the Bears for the No. 110 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft
Sixth-round running back Kimani Vidal could push for significant backfield usage from the jump
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Chiefs x2, Raiders x2, Broncos x2
AFC North (4)::
@Browns, @Steelers, Ravens, Bengals
NFC South (4)::
@Falcons, @Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers
@Patriots, @Cardinals, Titans
Bull Case ::
Sharp Football Analysis gives the Chargers the second softest strength of schedule entering the 2024 season, which should allow this team to attack in their preferred method for deeper into games this year (more on this below). The AFC West now includes three of the weaker teams in the Conference in the Raiders, Broncos, and Chargers, and the division drew arguably the softest NFC division in the NFC South this year. Furthermore, the three one-off games for the Chargers this year include three of the worst teams in the league in the Patriots, Cardinals, and Titans. At the bare minimum, this team will likely remain competitive throughout the season. I know, not exactly a resounding bull case, but here we are.
Bear Case ::
There’s little reason to beat around the bush with this team – the term “rebuild” is true in every sense of the word. They enter the 2024 season with no fewer than six new starters on the offensive side of the ball and will see no fewer than four new starters on defense. The franchise brought in one of the most run-heavy offensive coordinators over the previous decade and a head coach long known for #establishingit. That’s all well and fine until you consider the multitude of personnel changes and the fact that this is the first year under a new coaching regime.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
Harbaugh wasted no time in pushing this franchise closer to his vision, which appears to consist of a run-heavy juggernaut intent on grinding out games as he has done at each of his previous three head coaching stops.
The youthful wide receiver corps enters the new season with 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston, 2021 third-round pick Joshua Palmer, and 2024 second-round pick Ladd McConkey atop the depth chart. The signings of TEs Will Dissly (31.2 percent route participation rate in 2023) and Hayden Hurst (64.4 percent route participation in 2023) further reinforce the shift to a more run-heavy expectation moving forward.
The team watched as longtime alpha running back Austin Ekeler departed, filling that gap with two-down grinder Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, the latter of whom is fresh off yet another significant season-ending injury. RB Kimani Vidal was selected in the sixth round of this year’s draft and could push for significant playing time early considering the current state of the depth chart.
During Harbaugh’s stint as head coach of the 49ers (2011-2014), the team finished top 10 in rush attempts per game in all four seasons, finishing top five in all but his final year. His Michigan team attempted 37.3 rushes per game in 2023 after 42.9 per game in 2022. Finally, the Baltimore Ravens finished each of the 2019 through 2022 seasons in the top six in rush attempts per game while Greg Roman served as the offensive coordinator, leading the league in rush attempts per game in two of those seasons.
This should be one of the more run-heavy teams in the league in 2024. I’m not one to invest heavily in running backs who have missed the bulk of the previous three seasons with an ACL tear, a hamstring tear, and a torn Achilles, leaving J.K Dobbins about as uninspiring as they come through my eyes. Gus Edwards managed a startling 13 touchdowns in 2023 while playing under Jim’s brother, John, in Baltimore, but he has just 30 career receptions through the first six years of his career (one missed with injury) and ran to a career-low 4.1 yards per carry a season ago. Considering the state of the depth chart and the health of Dobbins, it is likely we see Edwards begin the season as the lead back, albeit in a strict two-down role. Kimani Vidal is a 5’ 8”, 213-pound back with 4.46 speed and the primary traits of a North-South runner. He should start the season behind Edwards for early down work but has every opportunity to carve out significant usage considering the state of the depth chart in Los Angeles. Considering early ADP, I have no issues with pairing Edwards and Vidal in best ball as a path to a full season’s worth of lead back duties on what is expected to be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league.
ADP will dictate my level of exposure to any of the three primary wide receivers on the Chargers, but I am on record stating I don’t see the hype that McConkey has driven this draft cycle. All three plus the tight end stable should be viewed as poor best ball options. That also leaves my interest in franchise quarterback Justin Herbert lower than consensus.
Mid-August Update ::
QB Justin Herbert has missed the last couple of weeks with an injury to his plantar fascia but was able to return to practice Monday, Aug. 19, giving him just under three weeks to prepare for Week 1.
This backfield is likely to matter for fantasy this season. JK Dobbins is reportedly healthy, but it is evident that his left leg is not as strong as his right (pictures showing calf definition), something that recent research suggests carries a high rate of injury (we’ve seen this talked about with numerous players this offseason). That said, Dobbins has played over Edwards, under this same offensive coordinator, when healthy throughout his career.
Rookie WR Ladd McConkey reportedly had size/injury concerns from multiple franchises coming out of college and “dealt with an issue” through the first week of camp, but he was able to make his preseason debut in Los Angeles’ second exhibition game against the Rams.
McConkey, Joshua Palmer, and DJ Chark have been working with the ones at wide receiver most often in camp thus far. Expect those three to start the season in 11-personnel.
That leaves Quentin Johnston nothing more than a pipe dream at any ADP, playing as the likely fourth wide receiver in what should be an extremely run-oriented offense.
TE Will Dissly has reportedly run with the ones the most in camp. I expect increased rates of 12- and 21-personnel from the Chargers this season, something that should keep him on the field at a high rate.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Matt Nagy returns for his second year as offensive coordinator in Kansas City after spending previous seasons with the Chiefs
Defense: Steve Spagnuolo returns for his sixth season as defensive coordinator
Personnel Changes ::
The Chiefs’ splashiest free agent addition this offseason was WR Marquise Brown, formerly of the Cardinals
The team did re-sign numerous high-impact players and extended Pro Bowl defensive tackle Chris Jones
Kansas City drafted speedy WR Xavier Worthy, who should immediately seize a starting wide receiver role from Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, and Kadarius Toney, at the end of the first round.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Broncos x2, Raiders x2, Chargers x2
AFC North (4)::
@Browns, @Steelers, Ravens, Bengals
NFC South (4)::
@Falcons, @Panthers, Saints, Buccaneers
@Bills, @49ers, Texans
Bull Case ::
Last year, we started the bull case for the Chiefs with “Patrick Mahomes.” Period. That rings true for as long as Mahomes continues to play in this league. Furthermore, the added weapons for Mahomes in the form of Worthy and Brown sees the days of poor pass-catching weapons fall by the wayside. Hollywood ran a 4.32 40-yard dash coming out of college while Worthy broke NFL Combine records with his official 4.21 time this year. More below on how this speed is likely to affect this offense (suffice to say, it is a good thing – lolz).
The Chiefs also now play in one of the weakest divisions in the AFC and hold a 12th -ranked adjusted strength of schedule, per Sharp Football Analysis, with games against the NFC South on tap as well. The Chiefs are positioned well to lead the league in scoring in 2024.
Bear Case ::
I mean, the Chiefs were missing players that could consistently stretch the field in the vertical the previous two seasons (which is the reason Marquez Valdes-Scantling stayed on the field during that span). They just addressed that shortcoming in spades this offseason. As long as Patrick Mahomes remains healthy, there isn’t much case to be made for the bear.
The lone relative blemish for the Chiefs heading into 2024 is the sporadic situational play calling from a season ago, the first season with Nagy back with the team as offensive coordinator. That said, this is still an Andy Reid offense, and the Big Kahuna has his hands deep in this offense. If we’re getting nitpicky, the situational play calling could have been tighter last season.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The recent addition of elite speed through Worthy and Brown should do wonders to open up the underneath areas of the field for tight end Travis Kelce (92 receptions or more in six straight seasons) and Rashee Rice (after his potential suspension – the word is still out on that front). Rice put up elite underlying metrics in his rookie season, seeing an overall 27.4 percent TPRR (targets per route run) and ranking in the top-24 in fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) against most primary coverage shells deployed by current defensive coordinators (check out a study I did on 2023 performance here). The speed addition is important for a guy like Rice, considering his ridiculously low 4.8-yard aDOT from a season ago. I’m buying Rice through the expected dip in ADP, pending his looming suspension.
Mahomes finished the 2023 season with a career-low TD rate, something likely to correct with the new weapons in Kansas City. Furthermore, the Chiefs have been between 60 percent and 63 percent overall pass rate in each of the previous four seasons. Considering the state of the teams of the other top-tier quarterbacks around the league, a viable case can be made for Mahomes as the QB1 in 2024.
Kelce has done nothing but produce through elite volume for the previous six seasons. Yes, father time will strike eventually and there is definite merit to being cautious at early ADP considering the additions to the pass-catching corps this offseason, but I will strive to be at least even weight on the veteran tight end.
As for Brown and Worthy (the other two projected starting pass catchers), Brown is likely to end the season third in targets amongst primary pass catchers while Worthy is likely to have a best ball profile similar to MVS over the previous two seasons, with the chance to rattle off usable weeks at any moment. That said, he is likely going to have to do so through relatively modest volume. Even if Rice is suspended for a significant portion of the season (unlikely, in my opinion), it is more likely that Worthy is groomed for a specific role rather than thrust into seeing half of his snaps from the slot (like Rice).
Finally, the running back stable is extremely thin behind Isiah Pacheco, with Jerick McKinnon no longer in the picture. The Thundermaker saw 50 red-zone touches (seventh), a 61.2 percent snap share (13th ), a 72.4 percent opportunity share (eighth), and finished 11th in breakaway run rate. Pacheco is currently being drafted as the RB14 off the board, exactly where he finished the 2023 season. I’m buying.
Mid-August Update ::
Still no update on the legal proceedings for WR Rashee Rice, leaving a wide range of outcomes regarding his availability for the coming season. The biggest issue here isn’t whether Rice gets suspended this season, it now becomes the timing of a potential suspension. We could be looking at another Ezekiel Elliott scenario where Rice is missing games later in the season, or worse, during fantasy playoffs.
RB Deneric Prince has dominated camp repetitions with the ones behind Isiah Pacheco. This looks real; as in, it appears as if Prince will be given the opportunity to serve as the backup to Pacheco.
WR Xavier Worthy has looked like an explosive rookie. We’ve seen deep-ball completions in addition to troubles getting off the line against press-man coverage. No reason to overreact in either direction.
This offense is expected to be much more efficient after the additions of Worthy and Brown, which is a massive boost to the upside of Pacheco.
Along the same lines, the Chiefs are currently projected to score the third-most points this season along with 11 games with a team total over 25 points, while they are projected to be in only four games all season with a game total over 48 points. In other words, this team still has a very good defense and is expected to control game environments more often than not. Another nod to the upside of Pacheco.
DENVER BRONCOS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: HC Sean Payton and OC Joe Lombardi return for their second season together in Denver
Defense: DC Vance Joseph also returns for his second season in Denver
Personnel Changes ::
Signed 13 new personnel this offseason including WR Josh Reynolds, DE John Franklin-Meyers, LB Cody Barton, CB Levi Wallace, and FS Brandon Jones, all of whom are projected to be starters
Drafted QB Bo Nix in the first round, who should have every opportunity to start from the jump with only Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, and Ben DiNucci on the roster
Kicked QB Russell Wilson to the curb after his lucrative five-year contract was signed in 2022
Released defensive veteran leader in S Justin Simmons
Traded WR Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns for fifth and sixth-round picks
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Chiefs x2, Raiders x2, Chargers x2
AFC North (4)::
@Bengals, @Ravens, Browns, Steelers
NFC South (4)::
@Saints, @Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers
@Jets, @Seahawks, Colts
Bull Case ::
Marvin Mims. I kid. Those who were around last year know I was team Mims in his rookie season, but clearly, there were things present in his profile that impeded his growth considering his 51.4 percent route participation rate and 40.7 percent snap share.
In full transparency, this team has a ton of moving pieces and is likely to be built from the defense forward considering that is where they invested the most in free agency. There isn’t much of a case to be made for upside here.
Bear Case ::
13 free agent additions and a host of new starters, including quarterback, at least one wide receiver, center, one defensive end, one linebacker, corner, and one safety have the Broncos in a full-blown rebuild after they moved on from Russell Wilson and dealt away arguably their top playmaker in Jerry Jeudy. The grind-it-out mentality of the coaching staff in addition to a rather weak division and four games against the NFC South leaves the Broncos likely treading water all season. Furthermore, this coaching staff rotated personnel at an alarming rate a season ago and they did nothing this offseason to make us believe it will be any different moving forward.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The Broncos finished the 2023 season with an 8-9 record while playing with a ragtag bunch of skill position players. Heading into the second season with the same coaching staff should, in theory, provide some stability to improve upon that record, but the team will now be playing (most likely) with a rookie quarterback under center (and the sixth quarterback off the board in this year’s draft, nonetheless) and see one of the largest personnel turnovers of any team in the league.
The Broncos were team “establish it” under Payton and Lombardi a season ago, ranking 25th in pass play percentage at a modest 55.61 percent. Considering the personnel turnover and the fact that they are likely playing with a rookie signal caller for the duration of the season, I’d have to think they will adopt a run-balanced approach once again in 2024. The 24-year-old rookie started 61 games in college, the most in FBS history, and broke the NCAA record for completion percentage (77.4 percent) in his final year, also leading the FBS in total touchdowns (51). Even so, Nix played in a spread West Coast, RPO-heavy offense in Oregon and is likely to require significant coaching to make the transition to the faster-paced NFL game.
RB Javonte Williams played in 16 games in 2023, the most in his short, yet injury-riddled, career. Even still, he managed more than 20 running back opportunities just four times while playing alongside Samaje Perine. Both backs return to Denver in 2024 and now see added competition via 2024 fifth-round selection Audric Estime. If volume is the clearest indicator of fantasy value at the running back position, this team is sorely lacking.
This is the same staff that utilized a loose two-to-three-man rotation at tight end and a loose four-to-five-man rotation at wide receiver for the duration of the 2023 season. That does little to inspire confidence in any pass-catcher outside of the potential for Courtland Sutton to serve as the lead dog after a season in which he put up top-24 metrics. In earnest, the top range of outcomes versus cost profile on this team at present is newcomer WR Josh Reynolds.
Mid-August Update ::
Sean Payton officially named rookie 12th overall pick Bo Nix as the winner of the quarterback job battle on Wednesday, Aug. 21. Given Nix’s extensive college experience and strong preseason to date, there’s reason for optimism with respect to a potentially short acclimation curve, but as noted earlier, having a rookie under center could lead to a more run-centric approach, especially in the early part of the season.
The battle at running back in camp for the Broncos labors on. In my opinion, reports of Javonte Williams on the roster bubble are ridiculous and unwarranted. He is the back with the best potential to serve as the primary back in this room. If the season were to start now, I would place Williams in the 14-to-16-touch weekly opportunity range with upside for more, Jaleel McLaughlin in the 8-to-10-touch weekly opportunity range, and Audric Estime the preferred short-yardage back with nothing more left over than a handful of weekly opportunities.
Courtland Sutton remains criminally underrated at current ADP around the industry. For that matter, so are Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims. This offense is currently projected to score the third-fewest points this season, but the coaching staff has a long history of maximizing the talent they have on the field. There can be some best ball value here.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: The hard-charging Antonio Pierce gets his first crack at running an NFL franchise after a successful audition in 2023; Luke Getsy assumes the offensive coordinator job after spending the previous two seasons in the same position for the Bears
Defense: Patrick Graham returns for his third season as the defensive coordinator for the Raiders
Personnel Changes ::
Added DT Christian Wilkins, QB Gardner Minshew, and RB Alexander Mattison via free agency
Lost RB Josh Jacobs to the Packers via free agency
Drafted TE Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick and C/G Jackson Powers-Johnson in the second round
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Chiefs x2, Broncos x2, Chargers x2
AFC North (4)::
@Ravens, @Bengals, Browns, Steelers
NFC South (4)::
@Saints, @Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers
@Dolphins, @Rams, Jaguars
Bull Case ::
Antonio Pierce led the Raiders to a 5-4 record as interim head coach to end the 2023 season, most notably beating the Chiefs on the road and playing the Dolphins and Vikings to narrow defeats within that span. What was most telling to me during that stretch was the jolting shift in player demeanor under Pierce, both on and off the field of play. As in, the players in Las Vegas bought into Pierce and how he ran the team – very much of the Mike Vrabel smashmouth style of football.
The addition of Christian Wilkins in free agency should not go understated as this team has long had difficulty keeping attention off of the animalistic Maxx Crosby on the edge. Pair the newfound athleticism along the left side of the defensive line with one of the better linebacking units in the league and you’re left with a defensive front that should be able to generate significant disruption in 2024, assuming their veterans can remain healthy.
Now consider the return of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer, paired with the additions of rookie tight end Brock Bowers and quarterback Gardner Minshew, and this team appears to have enough leg to remain competitive in what has now become a rather weak division behind Kansas City.
Bear Case ::
While the front seven in Las Vegas is nothing short of elite, legitimate question marks persist in the secondary – none of which were addressed through free agency or the first two days of the draft. The team also saw two starters on the interior offensive line depart via free agency and lost their former workhorse running back, the same back that led the league in rushing just two seasons ago.
Newcomer offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s Bears finished each of the previous two seasons ranked 19th or worse in points per game and 21st or worse in total offense and it felt like it took him a solid year and a half to figure out how to maximize the talent he had on the field in Chicago. We have to take the previous two seasons at face value with Getsy, leading to the conclusion that he is likely slow to tailor his version of his offense to the personnel he has on the roster. That’s particularly interesting considering the team’s draft this season after they selected yet another athletic specimen tight end early in the first round.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The Raiders finished the 2023 season with an 8-9 record behind 332 points scored and 331 points allowed. Their defense finished in the top half of the league in most meaningful metrics, highlighted by just 19.5 points allowed per game. That said, the shortcomings in the secondary should not go unnoticed and the multitude of moving pieces within their organization is not overly conducive to a fast start in the coming season. This team has all the looks and feel of a middling squad in every sense. Despite that, the Raiders should rarely be blown out. The other side of that equation also rings true as we shouldn’t expect Las Vegas to run many teams off the field, either. There is something to be said for the newly instilled smashmouth identity of this team under Pierce.
It’s too early to know whether Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell will start the season under center for the Raiders. Considering the former’s two-year, $25 million contract after stepping in for the injured Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis in 2023, I’d have to give him the inside edge to the starting role come September. Minshew has proven capable of running an NFL offense when called upon during his Jeremey Lin-esque career and has a solid supporting cast consisting of a viable mix of veteran presence and youthful exuberance.
Question marks abound in the run game after the team let their franchise running back walk in free agency and lost two interior offensive linemen. Pair that with a proven lean towards a more run-balanced offensive approach from both Pierce and Getsy and we’re left with a confusing stupor considering their selection of Bowers in the draft. In other words, their actions in free agency and the draft don’t exude run-heavy energy, in stark contrast to what we think we know of the coaching staff.
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers finished the 2023 season in the top 24 in fantasy points per game at wide receiver. All the while they caught passes from a rotating stable of quarterbacks that managed the league’s fifth-worst efficiency. I recently stated on Twitter that the first round of the draft is probably the last time we can get a true glimpse into the intentions of an NFL franchise until September, meaning we should expect this team to adopt a much heavier 12-personnel presence moving forward. That notion likely means this team is going to be looking to dink and dunk their way down the field on offense, reinforced by the modest 10.8 and 9.7 aDOTs from Adams and Meyers in 2023, respectively. That is going to require staying ahead of the chains, minimizing negative plays and sacks, and a solid third down conversion rate to be effective.
In the backfield, Zamir White escaped the first two days of the draft with little in the way of added competition for touches. Yes, Alexander Mattison was added to the mix through free agency, but we all know what we’re getting with him after a disaster of a 2023 season in Minnesota. That isn’t necessarily a ringing endorsement for White considering he’s an effective zero in the pass game and managed a middling 4.3 yards per carry a season ago, but he does have the speed (4.40) and elusiveness to be an effective two-down grinder for the Raiders.
Finally, Adams and Meyers combined for nine games over 20 PPR points in 2023, each taking a slight hit in half PPR settings due to numerous factors including a relative lack of splash play potential in this offense, an expected ball control mentality, and the likely increased reliance on 12-personnel.
Mid-August Update ::
WR Michael Gallup retired from the NFL, making it likely that Tre Tucker or Jaylen Guyton operate as as the WR3 on this team. Even so, expect targets to be dominated by the trio of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and rookie tight end Brock Bowers.
Rookie RB Dylan Laube has been getting run with the ones during camp and appears to already have the inside track to pass-down work to start the year. Although not playing for a great offense (27th in projected points for 2024), he does offer slight standalone value with respectable contingency upside should something happen to White. You could do worse in the final round of best ball drafts in deeper formats.
QBs Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew had been splitting snaps with the first-team offense almost down the middle during training camp and the first two preseason games. However, early betting lines heavily favored Minshew to be the Week 1 starter, and those proved to be prescient after head coach Antonio Pierce named him the winner of the quarterback competition on Aug. 18.