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By Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)
Standings after Week 10:
Chiefs 9-0
Chargers 6-3
Broncos 5-5 (Week 14 bye)
Raiders 2-7
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
General Notes ::
Patrick Mahomes has morphed into more of a game manager at this point in his career and with this team. He continues to make the plays the Chiefs need him to make when they need to be made, but he is not the gunslinger we were introduced to when he entered the league.
Travis Kelce is becoming a dominant force in fantasy football on pure volume, with 40 targets over his last three games.
DeAndre Hopkins is the clear top WR on this team and is playing in a role similar to what Rashee Rice held to start the year when he was one of the top WRs in the league.
WR Xavier Worthy has been extremely disappointing after an exciting opening week.
Kareem Hunt is leading the backfield, but he appears to be wearing down a bit. Isiah Pacheco is expected to return from his broken fibula by the end of November and could provide a boost for the fantasy playoffs.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Chiefs have been winning games and are on top of the NFL with an unblemished record in large part thanks to their elite defense. Their offense flashed some potential in a Week 9 win over the Bucs, but they had another pedestrian outing against the Broncos in Week 10. The Bucs have been struggling defensively, while Denver is one of the tougher defenses in the league, so it is hard to say if the Chiefs’ offense really found something or just picked on a weak opponent. Over nine games, the Chiefs have scored 30 points only once while not allowing an opponent to score more than 25 all season. This is not a team that is creating fruitful offensive environments and that doesn’t seem likely to change over the second half of the season.
Looking Ahead ::
Kansas City’s focus is winning games, not lighting up the scoreboard. As such, the two opponent types that seem to be a red flag for Chiefs offensive players for fantasy football are non-competitive teams and teams with very good defenses, but less-than-aggressive offenses. The Chiefs have two games left against poor opponents in the Panthers and Raiders as well as three games against very good defenses of the Chargers, Browns, and Steelers – with two of those games coming in the fantasy playoffs. Week 11 against Buffalo and Week 16 against the Texans are the only remaining games on the Chiefs’ schedule where I would expect them to potentially be pushed by the opposing offense in a competitive game environment.
Fantasy Playoffs::
Week 15 -- at Browns
Run Defense DVOA -- 15th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 23rd
Week 16 -- vs Texans
Run Defense DVOA -- 2nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 4th
Week 17 -- at Steelers
Run Defense DVOA -- 9th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 10th
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
General Notes ::
Justin Herbert is playing at a high level, but the stats haven’t necessarily shown it. He may get to open things up a bit soon due to the Chargers’ upcoming schedule of elite opposing offenses.
Gus Edwards returned from injury and split the backfield work with J.K. Dobbins in Week 10. Dobbins is still the lead RB and will get passing down work, but Edwards will likely get close to double-digit carries weekly and the Chargers are willing to give work to other RBs as well.
Will Dissly is the TE1 for the Chargers and has led the team in targets in three of the past four weeks.
In the WR room, Quentin Johnston gets schemed touches, red-zone work, and downfield targets – but volume is an issue as he averages only four targets per game. Ladd McConkey is the other top receiver and works in more of a possession role. Josh Palmer is the clear WR3 at the moment and is used in a variety of ways, depending on the week and opponent. These receivers, especially Johnston and McConkey, are the likeliest beneficiaries from higher-scoring game environments that the Chargers have yet to experience.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Chargers started the year extremely run-heavy, then had their Week 5 bye, and then were No. 2 in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the NFL during Weeks 6 through 9. They promptly ran the ball 39 times compared to 18 pass attempts in Week 10 against the Titans. This appears to be a team that will spread out its offensive usage (especially in games they are in control of or expect to control) and will adjust their game plan to their opponent and expected game flow.
Looking Ahead ::
In the Chargers’ next four games, they face the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs. All four of those teams are in the top 10 in the NFL in offensive DVOA and therefore we can expect a possible uptick in how aggressive they are with their own play calling. They appear committed to their backfield rotations, but McConkey and Johnston are guys who we should watch for potential spikes in targets over the coming weeks. Week 10 was the first Chargers game all season where 40 combined points were scored, thanks to a garbage-time TD by the Titans. We will soon find out who the real Chargers are, as they will be facing a far different set of opponents than what they have seen so far in 2024. The Chargers notably have two matchups with bottom-tier pass defenses during the fantasy playoffs.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Buccaneers
Run Defense DVOA -- 10th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 24th
Week 16 – vs Broncos (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 6th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 8th
Week 17 -- at Patriots
Run Defense DVOA -- 26th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 30th
DENVER BRONCOS
General Notes ::
Bo Nix has looked very good in his rookie season and continues to improve, looking particularly strong in good matchups. He should continue to improve down the stretch of 2024 as the Broncos settle on their skill players he is playing with.
Audric Estime appears to be taking over the lead in the backfield after dominating carries in an important game against the Chiefs in Week 10. It feels like he may be moving into the role of main ball carrier, with Javonte Williams working as the change-of-pace back and Jaleel McLaughlin being pushed to merely situational work.
Courtland Sutton is the clear alpha of this receiving corps and the only one who can currently be trusted. There are four other WRs getting a notable amount of snaps weekly and each is used for their specific skill sets, but none have bankable volume.
Adam Trautman leads the TE room, but he can’t be trusted as a starter in fantasy football considering he’s only been targeted nine times over the last four games.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Broncos struggled offensively early in the year and then had a spark of three games with good offensive production against the Raiders, Saints, and Panthers in which they averaged 32 points per game. They have since returned to earth with only 26 total points in their last two games against the Ravens and Chiefs. The Broncos do not have elite physical talent and their scheme is fine, but not great. They are good enough to do very well against weak opponents but must rely on their defense to compete with strong opponents in close, low-scoring games.
Looking Ahead ::
The Broncos’ wins have come against the following QB’s: Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers (pre-Adams and in the rain), Gardner Minshew, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young. Not exactly a murderer’s row. The good news for the Broncos is their upcoming schedule includes a three-game stretch where they will face Minshew, Jameis Winston, and Joe Flacco. They have relied on their defense to put them in contention for a playoff spot and will likely continue to do so. Their fantasy playoffs schedule is relatively friendly, with three opponents ranking 16th or worse in run defense and two of their opponents ranking in the bottom 10 in pass defense. The outlook is good for Nix, Sutton and whoever is the lead running back when the playoffs come around. At the moment there aren’t many players we can count on weekly, but we should watch for the Broncos to potentially condense things as the season hits the home stretch and they fight for a playoff berth.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Colts
Run Defense DVOA -- 16th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 22nd
Week 16 -- at Chargers (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 18th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 5th
Week 17 -- at Bengals
Run Defense DVOA -- 23rd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 27th
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
General Notes ::
Quarterback is the biggest issue for this team and we could see three different QBs (Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder) on the field for the Raiders during the last seven weeks of the season.
Alexander Mattison has led the backfield recently and was a true feature back for a couple of games, but Zamir White was more involved in their last game and Ameer Abdullah seems to have carved out a role in the passing game and as a change-of-pace back for a few touches per game. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Raiders get rookie Dylan Laube some touches down the stretch of what appears to be a lost season.
Jakobi Meyers is the top receiver on this team and should have some solid games down the stretch against weaker opponents as well as in garbage time against strong opponents. He is a sneaky bet to finish 2024 very strong.
Tre Tucker is clearly the WR2, and as a young player with explosive ability, we may see him featured a bit down the stretch. He will likely have one or two very good games before the end of the season, but they may be tough to predict.
Tight end Brock Bowers has been every bit as good as advertised and is averaging 10 targets per game over his last five games. He will continue to be heavily featured. The one concern around him is that as the young cornerstone of the offense in a lost season, if he has any injuries later in the season they will almost certainly shut him down.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Raiders’ offensive struggles this season should not be that surprising and you could even make the case that they have overachieved a bit. They fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and while he was not great, there are much deeper issues than that. The Raiders almost certainly have a bottom-five QB situation in the NFL right now and they arguably have a bottom-five RB room as well. Bowers is a great young tight end and Meyers is a nice receiver, but if we were ranking WR1’s across the NFL he would definitely fall in the bottom 10 of that list. They are below average at the WR2 and WR3 spots as well. The offensive line hasn’t been great, either. The bottom line here is that the Raiders aren’t awful in any spot but they are below average almost everywhere offensively and their defense hasn’t been great either, which exaggerates their offensive shortcomings.
Looking Ahead ::
The Raiders are currently 2-7, and looking at their upcoming schedule, they are probably lucky if they can go 2-2 in their next four games prior to the fantasy playoffs. This means by the time the fantasy playoffs come around, the Raiders will likely be 4-9 or worse. This is important because they have three very good on-paper matchups for the playoffs, so whoever is on the field for them can likely produce some very helpful stat lines. I would not be surprised if White and/or Laube get extended run late in the year. Don’t pick them up now, but keep them in mind for late-season waivers. Meyers and Bowers are in position for a great run to end the year and would be great trade targets if your league’s deadline has not passed.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Falcons
Run Defense DVOA -- 29th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 19th
Week 16 -- vs Jaguars
Run Defense DVOA -- 12th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 32nd
Week 17 -- at Saints
Run Defense DVOA -- 31st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 12th