- OWS Daily Dose
- Posts
- AFC South Team Previews
OWS Fam,
In today’s Daily Dose, we dive into the AFC South.
Tomorrow, we will deliver the final division, the AFC North, to your inbox.
Saturday: AFC North
Find the rest of the divisions here: https://owsdailydose.beehiiv.com/
________________________________________________________
Team Previews are written by Hilow
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Head coach Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter return for their second year together
Defense: Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley enters his third year with the franchise
Personnel Changes ::
The Colts re-signed eight players at the beginning of free agency this season, most notably WR Michael Pittman.
They watched as backup QB Gardner Minshew departed in free agency, only to sign veteran gunslinger Joe Flacco
Added DT Raekwon Davis
Drafted WR Adonai Mitchell in the second round, a player many had given a first-round grade this offseason
Drafted DE Laiatu Latu in the first round, adding youthful athleticism to an already strong front seven that includes Kwity Paye, Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Samson Ebukam, E.J. Speed, Zaire Franklin, and Ronnie Harrison.
Second-year QB Anthony Richardson is reportedly ahead of schedule following multiple injuries in his rookie season, the most notable of which was the shoulder injury that required surgery to address
RB Zack Moss and WR Isaiah McKenzie departed via free agency
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Jaguars x2, Texans x2, Titans x2
AFC East (4)::
@Patriots, @Jets, Dolphins, Bills
NFC North (4)::
@Packers, @Vikings, Lions, Bears
Other (3)::
Steelers, @Broncos, @Giants
Bull Case ::
Shane Steichen proved to be one of the better forward-thinking, up-and-coming head coaches to fall outside the Gary Kubiak // Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Steichen served for two years under Nick Sirianni in Philadelphia before getting his first crack at head coaching duties last season, notably adept at designing an offense built to maximize the talent he has on the field.
Rookie Anthony Richardson finished as the QB4 and QB2 in the two games that he started, leading the team to 21 and 23 points in those weeks. His dual threat abilities should be on full display in his second year in the league, and he now gets the added benefit of a skill position group consisting of a healthy Jonathan Taylor, a newly re-signed Michael Pittman, a second-year wide receiver that flashed when given the opportunity in his rookie season in Josh Downs, and a thought-to-be first-round rookie that slipped to the second amidst rumors surrounding his off-the-field demeanor in Adonai Mitchell.
The Colts managed to put up 23.3 points per game in 2023, with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew thrust into the starting role for most of the season. Taylor also missed seven games a season ago and now appears to be fully healthy heading into the new season. Gus Bradley’s zone-heavy defensive scheme led the league in Cover-3 utilization in 2023, a defensive alignment that typically does a lot of things good but nothing great. That defense allowed a robust 24.4 points per game in 2023, 28th in the league. Add it all up, and the dynamic offense plus a defense better on paper than they are at suppressing points should give this team every opportunity to participate in routine shootouts in the coming season. Finally, Sharp Football Analysis gives the Colts the seventh easiest strength of schedule for 2024 with four games on tap against NFC North opponents that can put up points in a hurry.
Bear Case ::
While the Colts have a solid mix of athleticism, speed, youth, and veteran savvy, they are not particularly deep anywhere on their roster outside of the front seven on defense (except for maybe tight end – man, these Colts love their tight ends). Some ill-timed injuries could leave the franchise once again limping toward the finish line after a once-promising start to the season. That is true for almost any team in the league, so take this bear case with a grain of salt. If we’re getting really nitpicky here, the secondary is not on the same level as the front seven on the defensive side of the ball, which is honestly a likely boon to the offense more than a negative, as it is likelier to lead to more competitive and high scoring contests this season, similar to what we saw last year.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
Yes, a two-game sample is not enough to immediately anoint Anthony Richardson as the next coming of Michael Vick. But at the same time, Richardson averaged 25.75 fantasy points per game in his two healthy starts in 2023, a mark that would have left him as the overall QB1 on the season if he maintained that production throughout a fully healthy year (I get it, extrapolation is a slippery slope). Overall QB1 is well within Richardson’s range of outcomes for the 2024 season – let’s just leave it at that for now.
Michael Pittman finished the 2023 season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game in a PPR format and is currently drafted as the WR17 in early best ball contests. He accomplished this while scoring just four touchdowns. There is room to grow into further upside considering his borderline elite underlying metrics.
Considering Alec Pierce led the team in snap rate amongst pass-catchers and Adonai Mitchell is a more complete wide receiver, I think it’s not out of the question to expect the electric rookie to begin the season in a robust role in this offense. As in, it is more likely we see Josh Downs maintain a heavy slot role while Mitchell locks down the starting perimeter role opposite Pittman. At cost, Mitchell brings immense upside to the table and makes an elite team stacking partner with Pittman in a Best Ball setting.
Jonathan Taylor’s underlying metrics were slightly skewed to the downside in 2023 considering he fought through a multitude of injuries, playing over 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in only three games. In those three contests, however, the dominating back saw 23, 24, and 32 running back opportunities, averaging 22.3 running back opportunities in the seven games in which he started and finished. That, my friends, is an elite workload. If this man can stay healthy in 2024, on this offense, we’re looking at a legitimate path to top-three upside in all formats. Taylor is currently being drafted as the RB6 in early Best Ball drafts, behind Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson (surprise, I would take Taylor over all three).
Mid-August Update ::
WR Josh Downs matched or exceeded Michael Pittman in most underlying efficiency metrics through the first eight weeks of 2023 (before picking up a lingering injury in Week 9). Downs edged Pittman in yards per route run (2.00 to 1.80), yards per target (8.76 to 7.15), and yards per reception (11.83 to 10.58) and was close in targets per route run (0.23 to 0.25) during that span.
There is currently an eight-round gap between the two in Underdog ADP.
The WR3 position appears to be a competition between Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. Both are said to be having fantastic camps. My money is still on the talented rookie, but at some point, we must be honest with the truth that we’re arguing over a position battle highly likely to see 4-6 weekly targets. As in, it might not matter either way.
QB Anthony Richardson appears to be fully healthy and has been practicing with no limitations.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: OC Bobby Slowik returns for his second year in Houston
Defense: HC DeMeco Ryans and DC Matt Burke also return for their second seasons in Houston in their respective roles
Personnel Changes ::
The Texans took to free agency in a flash, bringing in RB Joe Mixon and 13 defensive additions, including DE Danielle Hunter, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DT Denico Autry, and CB Jeff Okudah, within the first week of legal tampering
Houston dealt a 2025 second-round pick to the Bills in exchange for WR Stefon Diggs
2024 sees 17 players depart Houston from a season ago, most notably RB Devin Singletary, OT George Fant (big), DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Teair Tart, LB Denzel Perryman, and S Adrian Amos
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Colts x2, Jaguars x2, Titans x2
AFC East (4)::
@Patriots, @Jets, Bills, Dolphins
NFC North (4)::
@Packers, @Vikings, Lions, Bears
Other (3)::
Ravens, @Chiefs, @Cowboys
Bull Case ::
Bobby Slowik plus C.J. Stroud was a sight to behold through a large portion of the 2023 season. In earnest, Stroud has all the makings to be one of the league’s next great quarterbacks, with a ceiling near that of Patrick Mahomes. That’s a no-shitter.
The team then went out and upgraded Devin Singletary to Joe Mixon, added Stefon Diggs in a shocking trade, and completely overhauled their middling defense. This team appears to have the tools to improve upon the middling 22.7 points per game they averaged in the 2023 season.
On paper, this offense is one of the more talented units in the league.
Bear Case ::
We had a bipolar relationship with offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik in 2023. On the one hand, the design of his plays is on par with the best offensive minds in the league. On the other hand, his situational play calling was at max, bottom half of the league, likely closer to the bottom 10, last season. He would go through long stretches where his plays were predictable and inefficient, most notably traversing two chunks of the season with the highest first-down rush rate in the league. He will need to improve upon those tendencies in his second year as offensive coordinator in Houston if this team is going to truly make a leap to the next echelon in 2024.
It should also not go unmentioned what the departure of RT George Fant is going to mean for this offensive line, particularly considering the team chose to wait until the draft to replace him, doing so with second-round rookie Blake Fisher. The spread nature of a dynamic run-blocking scheme under Slowik, one that utilizes advanced methodologies plucked from both zone and gap-based concepts, asks a lot of its guards and tackles in the run game. That could take time for a rookie tackle to master, particularly one more lauded for his work in pass protection as opposed to his skills in the run game.
Finally, an extremely difficult one-off schedule consisting of the Ravens, Chiefs, and Cowboys, in addition to playing AFC East and NFC North opponents for eight of their 17 games, likely means the Texans will be fighting tooth and nail for every victory this season outside of their division.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The massive personnel changes this team underwent this offseason signal a franchise that understands what they have in C.J. Stroud on a rookie deal. The two biggest things the Texans must overcome before they truly turn the corner into an NFL powerhouse are the loss of George Fant at right tackle and the sporadic play-calling tendencies from offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. If Blake Fisher can develop his run blocking to the level of his pass protection, and if Slowik can learn from his mistakes from his first season as an offensive coordinator, this team is going to make a splash in the league.
Stroud finished his rookie season as the QB10 in fantasy points per game at 18.7, just behind the 18.9 per game of Kyler Murray. He is currently being drafted as the QB4 off the board on Underdog, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes and a full round ahead of Anthony Richardson. I have both Mahomes and Richardson ranked ahead of Stroud for the 2024 season – something to keep in mind as we kick off draft season.
All three of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell are currently being drafted in the top 25 wide receivers on Underdog and the top 22 (!!!!) on Drafters. It is highly unlikely that all three return value at that valuation this season. All three finished 2023 ranked in the top 19 in fantasy points per game, but there are only so many pass attempts to go around for all three wide receivers plus tight end Dalton Schultz, plus Joe Mixon, plus any tertiary pass-catchers that find offensive snaps. There are too many theoretical scenarios regarding this situation to cover here, so we’ll leave the rest of that discussion for our training sessions together.
I believe that the biggest winner of the team’s plentiful changes this season is newcomer running back Joe Mixon, who has every opportunity to maintain the lofty volume he found in Cincinnati but now has the opportunity to improve upon what has become a laughable red zone efficiency profile throughout his career. A current valuation of RB16 off the board in early Best Ball drafts leaves plenty of meat on the proverbial bone.
A TE10 finish from Dalton Schultz through numerous missed games from Tank Dell in 2023 does not scream untapped upside heading into 2024. That said, a current TE13 valuation in early drafts has that baked into his profile. You could do worse than taking stabs in current ranges.
Mid-August Update ::
DL Denico Autry was suspended for six games for violating the league’s PED policy; other than Autry, the Texans are currently the epitome of health, with only EDGE Dylan Horton on PUP or NFI.
OC Bobby Slowik called RB Joe Mixon “an absolute workhorse, in every regard.” It sure seems like Mixon is looking at a 65%+ role for the offense projected to score the ninth most points in 2024, including seven games with a game total north of 48 points.
Not really any other major updates here.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Tennessee enters a new era after moving on from former head coach Mike Vrabel, bringing in the offensive minded Brian Callahan to serve as both the head coach and offensive play-caller
Defense: Dennard Robinson gets his first crack at defensive coordinator duties after serving as the defensive backs coach and/or passing game coordinator for the Rams, Jets, Eagles, and Ravens since 2015
Personnel Changes ::
The Titans were quite busy during the 2024 offseason
The team signed WR Calvin Ridley away from the Jaguars, C Lloyd Cushenberry away from the Broncos, RB Tony Pollard away from the Cowboys, DE Sebastian Joseph-Day away from the 49ers, LB Kenneth Murray away from the Chargers, and CBs Chidobe Awuzie away from the Bengals and L’Jarius Sneed away from the Chiefs
First-round rookie OT JC Latham and second-round rookie NT T’Vondre Sweat should start from the jump
QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, DL Denico Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, S Terrell Edmunds, and four offensive linemen departed via free agency, amongst others
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Colts x2, Texans x2, Jaguars x2
AFC East (4)::
@Dolphins, @Bills, Patriots, Jets
NFC North (4)::
@Lions, @Bears, Packers, Vikings
Other (3)::
Bengals, @Chargers, @Commanders
Bull Case ::
The addition of a prototypical “Z” wide receiver in Calvin Ridley should do wonders for an offense that attempted to fit square pegs into round holes since the departure of A.J. Brown two seasons ago. That should allow 2022 first-round project Treylon Burks to return to a more natural slot wide receiver role while DeAndre Hopkins operates in a natural “X” wide receiver role.
The running back duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, in addition to athletic tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, combine to form a skill position corps ripe with talent for second-year quarterback Will Levis to flourish. Now consider the shift to a more offensive minded head coach in Brian Callahan, who previously served as the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati for four years prior to getting his first shot at head coaching duties, and this team is set up well to buck the recent trend of offensive failure (17.9 points per game in 2023 and 17.5 points per game in 2022).
The complete overhaul of the defensive side of the ball, in addition to a fresh face as defensive coordinator, is likely to yield results sooner rather than later. The team vastly upgraded their secondary by snagging two of the top free agent corners in this year’s free agency cycle.
Bear Case ::
Any team with this many moving parts, including nine new projected starters and a fully new coaching staff, can struggle out of the gates. Will Levis also clearly has work to do to continue to transition to the NFL game. Furthermore, Sharp Football Analysis gives the Titans the sixth hardest adjusted strength of schedule for 2024.
The offensive line sees a massive overhaul after being the backbone of this franchise for the better part of the previous five seasons, including a rookie blind side protector in JC Latham.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The Titans did everything in their power to give QB Will Levis every chance to succeed as he enters his second professional season, and first season as the unquestioned starter. After leaving a wide receiver corps consisting of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd, Brian Callahan enters the 2024 season with a well-defined trio of DeAndre Hopkins (X), Calvin Ridley (Z), and Treylon Burks (Y), all of whom bring differing skillsets to the table in a complimentary fashion. All three are currently being drafted outside the top 36 at the position on both Underdog and Drafters, and present a solid buy-low opportunity at the current cost. Hopkins should garner the highest weekly volume (WR40 by ADP), Ridley should return a solid Best Ball profile with various spike weeks (WR34 by ADP, WR36 on both Underdog and Drafters), and Burks should return his best professional season while shifting back to a more natural position for his skills (WR89 per ADP).
Will Levis (QB23 per aggregate ADP, QB24 on both Underdog and Drafters) is a complete afterthought in early drafts and will play the 2024 season with one of the most complete skill position cores in the league in Hopkins, Ridley, Burks, Okonkwo, and running back Tony Pollard. I’m buying.
Talk out of Tennessee seems to indicate that both Pollard and second-year running back Tyjae Spears will be involved frequently. The initial signing of Pollard had me scratching my head as his skillset is similar to that of Spears but the two can theoretically be deployed at peak efficiency if they are rotating through to keep both fresh. This can work. That said, the presence of Spears is a definite dent to the fantasy expectations of Pollard. An RB25 valuation for Pollard is enough to quell those concerns, although personally, I prefer the weekly upside of guys like D’Andre Swift and Raheem Mostert in that range.
Finally, Chigoziem Okonkwo is currently being taken as the TE23 off the board after seeing 77 targets, a 20.2 percent targets per route run rate, and a 77.1 percent route participation rate while playing under Mike Vrabel and Tim Kelly in 2023. There is little in the way of target competition behind Okonkwo at the position in Tennessee, leaving him drafted nearer to his floor than to either his median projection or ceiling. Another potential buy opportunity in Tennessee for the 2024 season.
Mid-August Update ::
WR DeAndre Hopkins suffered a knee injury in early August and was given a recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks. As of Aug. 18, head coach Brian Callahan is on record as saying he expects Hopkins to be ready for Week 1. I have A LOT of Nuk this offseason (like, 37%), but my 30% of Calvin Ridley stands to benefit as well. We should take this as a lesson in contingency arbitrage, as was discussed in the recent Game Theory session. I expect Nuk to settle into the 85-95 range in ADP. I won’t take any more until he gets into that range but will have no issues taking him if he falls out of the back end of the target range.
Signed slot WR Tyler Boyd since the last time we talked.
WR Treylon Burks is reportedly having an excellent camp. He’ll at best have competition with Boyd out of the slot and at worst is a wasted pick.
There have been many beat reports hinting at increased rates of 21-personnel with both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears on the field together. I wouldn’t view this as a hit to the team’s expected high pass rates, but more as a hit to the snap rates of the slot wide receivers.
Beat reporters have cautioned against expecting increased receiving work for TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, stating that the towering Josh Whyle (6’7”, 248 pounds) has seen more run with the ones during camp.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor enter their third season together in Jacksonville
Defense: DC Ryan Nielsen enters his first season in Jacksonville after serving in the same position for both the Falcons and Saints in the previous two seasons
Personnel Changes ::
Made an early splash in free agency by bringing in C Mitch Morse, WR Gabe Davis, DT Arik Armstead, CB Ronald Darby, and NB/S Darnell Savage
Selected WR Brian Thomas in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft
Saw WR Calvin Ridley depart via free agency and did not re-sign WR Jamaal Agnew
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Colts x2, Texans x2, Titans x2
AFC East (4)::
@Bills, @Dolphins, Patriots, Jets
NFC North (4)::
@Bears, @Lions, Packers, Vikings
Other (3)::
Browns, @Raiders, @Eagles
Bull Case ::
The Jaguars vastly improved their defense this offseason, a move that should keep them competitive throughout the 2024 campaign. That’s also a double-edged sword from a fantasy perspective, particularly considering we’ve seen head coach Doug Pederson adopt more of a “must be pushed” identity in his two years in Jacksonville. In other words, Pederson used to be the one pushing the pace and scoring in his previous coaching stints but has since settled into more of a “let the game come to me” mindset.
The Jaguars managed to score 22.2 points per game in 2023 and 23.9 points per game in 2022, hinting at the potential for upside in the coming season.
Bear Case ::
The team enters 2024 with significant offensive turnover and there’s some parity in their pass-catching corps. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, the top two pass-catchers on this team, both work the underneath areas of the field; Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas carry similar profiles; and Zay Jones remains the most natural X-type wide receiver on the roster. The fact that Jones led the team in snap rate in healthy games a season ago reinforces that last point. Combine those notions with the fact that the Jaguars now boast one of the top on-paper defenses from a talent perspective, and we’re left with a rather wide range of potential outcomes when it comes to projecting this offense.
That is not meant to say value cannot emerge from this unit, simply that there is a wider range of potential outcomes than is found on other teams we’ve broken down to this point. That said, current valuations of the team’s primary skill position players leave room for the upside – it’s just difficult to project. From a cost versus range of outcomes perspective, my favorite grabs from this team are Travis Etienne, Evan Engram, and Brian Thomas.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
We know the league is transitioning to a “zone-based league,” with the average man usage falling in each of the previous five seasons. We also know that the highest coverage shell utilization in each of the previous two seasons was Cover-3. We also know that Calvin Ridley led the Jaguars in most underlying metrics against Cover-3 last year. Enter Evan Engram, who finished in the top 24 pass-catchers in fantasy points per route run against Cover-3 in 2023. Furthering the bull case towards upside for the veteran tight end is a wide receiver corps that is either unproven or ineffective against Cover-3 to this point in their respective careers. At a current TE7 valuation (TE8 on Underdog), there is viable room for the upside baked into Engram’s profile for the coming season.
Trevor Lawrence is currently being drafted as the QB16 off the board on both Underdog and Drafters. That’s right where he finished the 2023 season in fantasy points per game (17.3). That said, the Jaguars made their biggest improvements on the defensive side of the ball. The other side of that equation is a schedule consisting of games against improving AFC South opponents, the Bills, Dolphins, Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Browns, and Eagles. In other words, the Jaguars don’t get many breathers this season when it comes to strength of opponent. I’m fine taking shots on Lawrence at current valuation.
Christian Kirk (WR32 by ADP) and Gabe Davis (WR53 by ADP) are both being drafted near median expectation while rookie Brian Thomas provides a big-bodied, speedy (4.33 40) profile oozing with upside. The biggest concern is that Thomas’ profile carries significant overlap to that of Davis, making his selection carry a good deal of uncertainty considering the most natural X-type wide receiver on the roster is Zay Jones. Even so, there is upside present for the player who led FBS in receiving touchdowns a season ago.
Running back Travis Etienne ranked sixth in snap share (74.3 percent) and opportunity share (75.7 percent) a season ago under the same coaching regime, finishing as the RB7 in fantasy points per game in PPR. He is currently being drafted as the RB11 on both Underdog and Drafters to begin the draft season, behind Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and De’Von Achane. Give me Etienne over all three.
Mid-August Update ::
Kicker Riley Patterson was released, paving the way for rookie Cam Little to serve as the team’s placekicker in 2024.
Backup RB Tank Bigsby reportedly had a strong offseason and has performed well in camp and preseason, potentially substantiating recent reports that the team wants him more involved in the offense.
QB Trevor Lawrence got a fatty contract extension this year, to the tune of five years and $275 million, including a ridiculous $200 million in guaranteed money.