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- AFC South Midseason Recap
By Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)
Standings after Week 10:
Texans 6-4 (Week 14 bye)
Colts 4-6 (Week 14 bye)
Titans 2-7
Jaguars 2-8 (Week 12 bye)
HOUSTON TEXANS
General Notes ::
C.J. Stroud has been solid but not spectacular this season. His production stalled a bit once Nico Collins went out of the lineup.
Joe Mixon is the RB2 on the season and dominates the running back work. The Texans have three games left against high-end run defenses and three left against poor run defenses.
Collins will return to the lineup on Monday night and was arguably the best WR in the league prior to hurting his hamstring.
Tank Dell should benefit from the return of Collins as the offensive environment improves and he gets less defensive attention.
Stefon Diggs was starting to fit in nicely for the Texans when he suffered a torn ACL. Third-year WR and one-time second-round draft pick John Metchie is starting to emerge as that third WR for Houston and could have some nice games down the stretch.
Dalton Schultz plays a lot but has not had a great statistical season. He will probably have at least one big game before the season is over.
Offensive Outlook ::
Houston’s offense has been solid this season but has not met expectations, as through 10 weeks the Texans have played only one game with both of their main offensive weapons – Joe Mixon and Nico Collins. Mixon left Week 2 with an ankle injury and was out through Week 5, while Collins suffered a bad hamstring injury during Week 5 and is finally returning this week against Dallas. They rank 23rd in offensive DVOA but have a 6-4 record and commanding lead in their division. If they can stay healthy down the stretch, we could see this offense return to near-elite status in the second half of 2024.
Looking Ahead ::
The Texans still have their Week 14 bye ahead of them and have a couple of high-profile matchups with the Chiefs and Ravens during the fantasy playoffs. Their defense has been great this season, ranking second in defensive DVOA, which has kept their game environments from getting out of hand so far this season. They have a couple of soft games coming up on the schedule against the bottom-tier defenses of the Cowboys and Jaguars, as well as showdowns with the high-powered offenses of Miami, KC, and Baltimore during the playoffs that could all open up this offense.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Dolphins
Run Defense DVOA -- 25th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 16th
Week 16 -- at Chiefs
Run Defense DVOA -- 3rd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 9th
Week 17 -- vs Ravens
Run Defense DVOA -- 4th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 25th
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
General Notes ::
Flip, flop. Flip, flop. The Colts have changed QBs several times this season but are back to dynamic but inconsistent second-year QB Anthony Richardson as their starter – allegedly for the remainder of the season.
Jonathan Taylor missed some time with an ankle injury, but he’s healthy now and has rushed for over 100 yards in four of his seven healthy games.
Josh Downs appears to have emerged as the top WR option for the Colts and plays predominantly in the slot. Third-year WR and one-time second-round pick Alec Pierce has emerged as a consistent downfield threat. Michael Pittman Jr. has battled a back injury but is finally practicing in full after sitting out a week, while highly touted rookie WR Adonai Mitchell is coming off his best game of the season.
The Colts play their TEs a lot, but they play several of them and target them infrequently, which leaves them somewhat irrelevant for us for fantasy football purposes.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Colts have scored more than 27 points once all season, which was in a bit of a shootout against the Jaguars with Joe Flacco under center hitting big plays on Jacksonville’s 32nd-ranked pass defense. Their defense had a rough stretch early in the season but has been playing better of late, as they have been healthier and have held some higher-profile offenses relatively in check. The insertion of Richardson as QB limits the outlooks for all pass catchers and also potentially limits the touchdown equity for Taylor. Richardson’s development is the top priority for the franchise at this point, and how well he comes along will directly impact what we can expect from everyone on this offense.
Looking Ahead ::
The Colts have a tough fantasy playoffs schedule against the Broncos and Titans, whose strong defenses and conservative offensive approaches tend to slow down game environments. Given the ceiling and volume concerns that Richardson’s presence brings to all skill players and the improvement the Colts have seen on the defensive side of the ball, we could be looking to avoid playing Colts players during the fantasy playoffs and now may be a good time to sell if your league’s trade deadline has not passed. The Colts also still have their Week 14 bye ahead of them, further limiting their current value as they are all “out” for 14% of the remaining fantasy season.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Broncos
Run Defense DVOA -- 6th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 8th
Week 16 -- vs Titans (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 8th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 18th
Week 17 -- at Giants
Run Defense DVOA -- 22nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 28th
TENNESSEE TITANS
General Notes ::
The Titans seem to have accepted their fate for 2024 but are committed to rolling with second-year QB Will Levis to see how well they can develop him.
RB Tyjae Spears missed some time due to injury but is back now and working once again in a “timeshare” with Tony Pollard. Either of them would be an every-week starter if the other one ever misses time, but both are tough to start on this low-ceiling offense while both are active.
Calvin Ridley has emerged as the top WR option on this team and is averaging 11 targets per game since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. His high volume role gives him a solid weekly floor and an underrated ceiling.
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and TE Chig Okonkwo may have a couple of nice games at some point, but they will likely be tough to predict and each have a very low weekly floor.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Titans rank 27th in offensive DVOA and have scored less than 20 points in seven of nine games this season, with only one game in which they scored more than 20. Levis has been inconsistent as a passer, to put it mildly, and has made several head-scratching decisions that cost the Titans games. Their defense is good enough to keep most game environments relatively close, which limits play volume and keeps the Tennessee ancillary players from being relevant most weeks.
Looking Ahead ::
The Titans actually have a good upcoming schedule for fantasy football purposes, as their next three games are against very good offenses of the Vikings, Texans, and Commanders. Their next two games after that are against the bottom-five defenses of the Bengals and Jaguars. If Levis shows improvement he could be a viable streaming option at some point late in the year, while Ridley should be an every-week starter and Pollard is a Flex option depending on your roster. As noted earlier, either Spears or Pollard would be a locked-in starter for most teams if they had the backfield to themselves at any point.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Bengals
Run Defense DVOA -- 23rd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 27th
Week 16 -- at Colts (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 16th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 22nd
Week 17 -- at Jaguars (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 12th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 32nd
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
General Notes ::
QB Trevor Lawrence is out for Week 11 with a shoulder injury and the Jaguars are off in Week 12. Mac Jones will start this week and we will see where things are in a couple of weeks.
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are in a full-blown RB timeshare when both are healthy. Bigsby is out for Week 11 but expected to return after the bye.
Jacksonville lost WR Christian Kirk for the season with a collarbone injury and has not been able to get much production out of free-agent acquisition WR Gabe Davis, who has not had over 50 yards receiving since Week 1.
Exciting rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. and veteran TE Evan Engram are likely to dominate targets for the Jaguars going forward and both are likely weekly starters, especially if/when Lawrence returns.
Parker Washington and a couple other replacement-level WRs are seeing more snaps in Kirk’s absence, but they need another injury to become relevant and even then they are low-ceiling bets on volume.
Offensive Outlook ::
Jacksonville has been one of the bigger offensive disappointments of the 2024 season, with Lawrence continuing his inconsistent play and the team’s offensive weapons all taking turns missing time with injuries. The loss of Kirk is a bigger deal than just what you see in the box score, as he was a leader in the locker room and a dependable target who helped them sustain drives. As bad as things look in the standings for Jacksonville, they’ve actually been pretty competitive this year but have lost six games by five points or less.
Looking Ahead ::
The Jaguars have a Week 12 bye and currently have a 2-8 record and a Week 11 game where they are 14-point underdogs to the juggernaut Lions. How they decide to handle their coaching and QB situations will have a big impact on what this team looks like down the stretch. Depending on the severity of Lawrence’s shoulder injury, they could theoretically shut him down in a lost season and just accept the idea that they are improving their draft position by “folding” on 2024. In order to do that, they would likely need to either move on from head coach Doug Pederson or commit to keeping him at least one more season, as Pederson isn’t going to tank and accept losses for a team he won’t be around to see the benefits from. We should know a lot within the next week, as a move away from Pederson would make the most sense heading into the bye week.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Jets
Run Defense DVOA -- 27th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 15th
Week 16 -- at Raiders
Run Defense DVOA -- 29th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 19th
Week 17 -- vs Titans (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 8th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 18th