- OWS Daily Dose
- Posts
- AFC North Midseason Recap
AFC NORTH
Standings after Week 10:
Steelers 7-2
Ravens 7-3 (Week 14 bye)
Bengals 4-6 (Week 12 bye)
Browns 2-7
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
General Notes ::
Russell Wilson has shown the ability to connect on deep balls and has opened up the Steelers’ passing offense in recent weeks.
Jaylen Warren had his best game of the season in Week 10, coming off the Steelers bye. He and Najee Harris worked in a full-blown timeshare for the first time this season after Warren battled injuries early in the year.
George Pickens is the clear “alpha” in the Steelers’ passing game and ranks eighth in the NFL in target share this year. He could have some massive games down the stretch.
The Steelers acquired WR Mike Williams at the trade deadline and he caught the game-winning TD against the Commanders in his debut, despite playing only eight snaps. He should quickly ascend to the WR2 role for Pittsburgh, with Calvin Austin likely to work as the WR3 and play in the slot.
Pat Freiermuth’s role appears to be shrinking, as he has not had more than three targets in a game since Week 4 and his snap rate has gone down each of the past four weeks.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Steelers’ offense started the year with Justin Fields at quarterback and had some decent outings but struggled to open up the passing game. Despite a 4-2 record, Mike Tomlin made the switch to Wilson in Week 7 and Pittsburgh has gone on a three game winning streak since then. Wilson has been solid, posting a 6-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt (his career-best season is 8.3 YPA). Wilson has made Pickens a consistent threat and has made the Steelers a more “on schedule” offense that works in a traditional fashion rather than relying on the legs of Fields. Harris has led the Steelers’ backfield so far, but Warren should be involved as long as he can stay healthy. Steelers ancillary receivers and tight ends have not done much to date, but that could change if they are pulled into higher-scoring game environments during the second half of the season.
Looking Ahead ::
In what is a bit of a scheduling anomaly, the Steelers have played nine games but have yet to face a divisional opponent. With eight games remaining on the schedule, the only two non-divisional games they have left are against the Eagles and the Chiefs during the fantasy playoffs. While the AFC North has a reputation as a division with strong defenses, that is not the case this season. Cleveland’s defense is not nearly as strong as it was in 2023, the Bengals defense is 27th in the league in DVOA, and the Ravens have turned into a pass-funnel defense that is giving up the most passing yards per game in the NFL. Considering those dynamics and the fact that the Eagles and Chiefs are such strong teams, there is a good chance that Pittsburgh is pulled into some high-scoring environments during the second half of the season.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Eagles
Run Defense DVOA -- 11th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 7th
Week 16 -- at Ravens (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 4th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 25th
Week 17 -- vs Chiefs
Run Defense DVOA -- 3rd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 9th
BALTIMORE RAVENS
General Notes ::
Lamar Jackson is the QB1 through 10 weeks and is dicing up opponents in a variety of ways with the best supporting cast of skill players he has had in his career.
Derrick Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns and has 12 touchdowns in 10 games, while rushing for 100+ yards five times. He only has 10 receptions on the season, but he is the most productive rusher in the league at 30 years old and it isn’t particularly close.
Zay Flowers is one of the more volatile WRs in the league with five games of 20+ PPR fantasy points and four games with less than eight PPR fantasy points.
Rashod Bateman has also been a volatile WR and the Ravens recently added Diontae Johnson via trade, which could complicate the WR room a bit as Nelson Agholor and Tylan Wallace have also been seeing the field and playing relatively well.
Mark Andrews started the season horribly, but has scored a touchdown and reached double-digit fantasy points in four of the last five games. Week 10 was the first game this season in which he was targeted more than five times.
Isaiah Likely had a massive game in Week 1 but has been quiet ever since. He was targeted 12 times in the season opener, but has only been targeted 21 times in the eight games he has played in since then.
Offensive Outlook ::
Baltimore is the #1 offense in the league in terms of both scoring and yards per game. The Ravens rank first in passing offense DVOA and second in rushing offense DVOA. They are, in every sense of the word, a juggernaut on the offensive side of the ball. Everything starts with the backfield, as Lamar’s dual-threat ability and the physical dominance of Henry are a nightmare for opposing defenses. The Ravens have a deep and talented receiving corps that gives them options on a weekly basis and lets them spread things around, which serves to make them that much more difficult for opponents to slow down. Combining the league’s most dynamic running game with an efficient, balanced, and explosive passing game makes the Ravens’ offense one that you can’t stop, you can only hope to contain.
Looking Ahead ::
Baltimore’s pass defense has been very poor this season and the Ravens have turned into a bit of a “pass funnel”. Considering how good the offense is, this creates a situation where opponents are likely to fall behind early in games and then be forced to air it out. They are likely to have success when they do air it out, which forces Baltimore to stay aggressive and keep chasing points – a great thing for fantasy. The Ravens have a Week 14 bye, but in their other six remaining games between now and the end of the fantasy season (Week 17), they face five teams that currently have winning records, which would seem to indicate Baltimore will be forced to keep its foot on the gas regularly over the rest of the season.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Giants
Run Defense DVOA -- 22nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 28th
Week 16 -- vs Steelers (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 9th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 10th
Week 17 -- at Texans
Run Defense DVOA -- 2nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 4th
CINCINNATI BENGALS
General Notes ::
Joe Burrow is the QB3 through 10 weeks and leads the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, despite playing a large chunk of the season without Tee Higgins.
Ja’Marr Chase is the WR1 on the season by nearly 60 points in PPR leagues, as there have been three 40+ point games by WRs this year and Chase has two of them (both against the Ravens).
Chase Brown is the workhorse in this backfield as Zack Moss has missed the last two games and was put on IR, unlikely to return this year. Brown is a top-12 RB the rest of the season.
Higgins has shown his talent in the games he has been on the field for this season and is the WR11 in points per game on the year. He has missed five games this season, however, and it is hard not to question if his contract situation is playing a role in that.
Mike Gesicki has averaged 13.5 fantasy points per game when Higgins is out of the lineup, compared to only three per game when Higgins is active.
Offensive Outlook ::
At least one team has scored 30+ points in five of the last seven Bengals games, as their high-powered offense continues to show it can beat you in a variety of ways but their defense allows opponents to keep pace with them. The Bengals’ defense has let opponents have their way with them this season and it will not be surprising at all if they continue to back Cincinnati into these shootouts where they have no choice but to open things up. Cincinnati leads the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) by a somewhat significant amount and has been very efficient through the air, leading to the type of offensive situation we love to see where volume and efficiency meet.
Looking Ahead ::
Burrow and Chase are on pace for their best statistical seasons, while Brown has thrived in a workhorse role. As long as that core stays healthy, this is a team that should continue being involved in fruitful game environments. Their fantasy playoffs schedule is not the best on paper, but they have the talent to overcome it and a defense that should keep volume and game scripts pushing them to fantasy relevance. They are likely to need Higgins to get back on the field soon, however, as some of the stronger defenses on their schedule may tighten things up on them if they don’t have that extra threat to account for. The Bengals’ season has been a bit disappointing so far as they have a 4-6 record and five of their losses have been by six points or less, but they are only one game out of the playoffs in the AFC and should stay in the thick of things deep into the season.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Titans
Run Defense DVOA -- 8th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 18th
Week 16 -- vs Browns (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 15th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 23rd
Week 17 -- vs Broncos
Run Defense DVOA -- 6th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 8th
CLEVELAND BROWNS
General Notes ::
Deshaun Watson’s torn Achilles gave new life to a Browns offense that was playing horribly to start the 2024 season.
Jameis Winston is currently the Browns’ starting QB and will undoubtedly have some wild highs and lows as long as he holds that position.
RB Nick Chubb has returned from his gruesome knee injury and has looked solid, but he has yet to have a very good game.
Wide receiver Amari Cooper was traded four weeks ago and second-year WR Cedric Tillman has stepped into his place and thrived, averaging seven receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown during his three games in the starting lineup.
Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy have had solid but unspectacular performances since Winston stepped in at QB. They may be playable on weeks where Cleveland faces weaker defenses.
TE David Njoku missed three games with an ankle injury early in the season but is fully healthy now and has 20 receptions for 166 yards and two TDs over the last three games with Winston targeting him.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Browns’ offense during the first six weeks was entirely different from what it has become since then. Having Winston at QB raises the ceiling for all pass catchers while also raising the variance for Cleveland game scripts. The Browns’ defense has taken a step back as well, which provides another avenue for them to get into situations where they provide value in fantasy football. The running game has not been able to get going all season, which is rare for a Kevin Stefanski-coached team. Chubb should continue to get stronger and Cleveland’s offensive line should be healthier following the Week 10 bye. Tillman and Njoku seem to be the focal points of the passing game, while Moore and Jeudy are talented enough that they should each pop up for one or two very good games before the year is through.
Looking Ahead ::
Coming off their bye week, the Browns face a Saints team that has been awful against the run but then have four straight games against top-10 run defenses. Perhaps the greatest unknown for the Browns’ offensive personnel is how the organization will handle the QB position late in what is likely to be a lost season. Will they stick with Winston or turn things over to the younger and less efficient Dorian Thompson-Robinson? If they choose the latter, the offense could potentially morph back into the team we saw with Watson under center.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- vs Chiefs
Run Defense DVOA -- 3rd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 9th
Week 16 -- at Bengals (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 23rd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 27th
Week 17 -- vs Dolphins
Run Defense DVOA -- 25th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 16th