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OWS Fam,
In today’s Daily Dose, we dive into the AFC East.
Over the next 3 days, we will be delivering the final 3 divisions to your inbox.
Thursday: AFC West
Friday: AFC South
Saturday: AFC North
Find the NFC East, NFC West, NFC South and NFC North previews here: https://owsdailydose.beehiiv.com/
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Team Previews are written by Hilow
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Robert Kraft absolutely cleaned house this offseason, bringing in a new head coach, new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator.
Offense: Alex Van Pelt comes over to the Patriots to serve as the offensive coordinator after spending the previous four seasons in the same position for the Browns.
Defense: Head coach Jerod Mayo promoted from within for defensive coordinator, giving former defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington the nod.
Personnel Changes ::
QB Mac Jones was dealt to the Jaguars.
RB Ezekiel Elliott was not re-signed.
TE Mike Gesicki and OT Trent Brown wound up in Cincinnati.
Lost three corners, two safeties, two linebackers and a defensive lineman this offseason.
Signed a slew of veteran backups via free agency including QB Jacoby Brissett (could start), WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, TE Mitchell Wilcox, RB Antonio Gibson, DT Armon Watts, LB Sione Takitaki, and S Jaylinn Hawkins.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Bills x2, Dolphins x2, Jets x2
AFC South (4)::
@Jaguars, @Titans, Texans, Colts
NFC West (4)::
@49ers, @Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks
@Bengals, @Bears, Chargers
Bull Case ::
I mean, the defense is pretty freaking good on paper. My mom always said that if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. So, I guess I passed the test, mom! It’s tough to get past the changes along the offensive line, the lack of a true alpha pass catcher, the changes at quarterback, and a completely new coaching regime. If you can stomach all that, maybe there’s something here to get excited about on offense. Maybe rookie WR Ja’Lynn Polk will pan out. Besides Polk, Kendrick Bourne returns after suffering a season-ending injury, Demario Douglas should continue doing slot things, Kayshon Boutte has a pulse, JuJu Smith-Schuster still has two knees, Tyquan Thornton can run pretty fast, Osborn has really dope hair, and rookie Javon Baker comes into the league as an above-average route runner.
Bear Case ::
On paper, this very well could be the worst offense in the league. On defense, however, the Patriots boast one of the better top-to-bottom rosters this season. That is quite the contrast, and likely to lead to first-time head coach Mayo adopting more of a “don’t lose the game” mindset with possession. The team brought in veteran “establish it” offensive coordinator in Van Pelt, someone who is likely to cater to that notion. We can never know for sure when analyzing a team in April, but this offense is entirely uninspiring while the defense appears to be “like, actually pretty good.” Making matters worse for that setup is an adjusted strength of schedule that ranks 31st in the league, per Sharp Football Analysis, something that could hinder the team’s ability to “win games the way they want to try and win games.”
Expectations/Takeaways ::
Expectations are low, to be completely transparent – at least from a fantasy perspective. Patriots fans can hang their hats on the fact that the defense looks like it’s going to be pretty good, but us fantasy nerds shouldn’t find much to be excited about here. If taking shots in best ball here, I want free. Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t free. Hunter Henry isn’t free. We’re talking like, Javon Baker-levels of free. Any polished route runner coming out of college has an outside chance of making a splash in their rookie year, despite how far down the depth chart they might seem to be in April. Bourne suffered a torn ACL in late October, something that could give Baker the room to assert himself in camp and preseason.
I don’t expect the Patriots to be slinging it around the yard, but we could access some PPR goodness through Baker if he stays on the field. Polk even had troubles against zone in college, which is not a good sign entering the now zone-heavy NFL, and he was knocked in the draft process for “lack of enthusiasm blocking” – I can’t see that going over well with this organization. Hell, Baker could turn heads and play over Polk to start the year. And he’s free.
I really don’t want to be investing American dollars in the other members of this team.
Mid-August Update ::
Following the Patriots’ second preseason game, QBs Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye are in an increasingly competitive job battle. Even if Brissett manages to win out for the time being, Maye will almost certainly make starts at some point this season – yet the timing of those starts is still a wide range of outcomes.
WR Kendrick Bourne started camp on PUP, paving the way for rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker to see significant time with the first-team offense. It shouldn’t take much for both players to find their way into the starting lineup alongside DeMario Douglas.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: Head coach Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith head into their third season together in Miami – we all know it’s McDaniel in charge of the offensive design and execution.
Defense: Vic Fangio lasted a lone year as the defensive coordinator in Miami; Anthony Weaver takes over for his first stint as a defensive coordinator after previously serving as the assistant head coach in Baltimore (he’s coached at the NFL level since 2012).
Personnel Changes ::
The Dolphins brought in S Jordan Poyer, LB Shaquil Barrett, TE Jonnu Smith, LB Jordyn Brooks, CB Kendall Fuller and C Aaron Brewer via free agency, amongst other secondary contributors.
Miami lost 18 players through free agency and failing to re-sign, most notably EDGE/LB Andrew Van Ginkel, CB Xavien Howard, S DeShon Elliott, EDGE Melvin Ingram and EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah.
Drafted LB Chop Robinson in the first round, LT Patrick Paul in the second, RB Jaylen Wright in the fourth and WR Malik Washington in the sixth – all four could contribute in Year 1.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Bills x2, Jets x2, Patriots x2
AFC South (4)::
@Texans, @Colts, Jaguars, Titans
NFC West (4)::
@Seahawks, @Rams, Cardinals, 49ers
@Browns, @Packers, Raiders
Bull Case ::
I’ve written countless times about McDaniel and how he is pushing the envelope when it comes to how the game is played, inventing and reinventing things the league has never seen before. If you were looking for a bull case, look no further than the top offensive mind currently in the league. The Dolphins also had an extremely busy offseason, staying true to form as they added more elite athletes throughout the process. This team is just plain fun to watch, analyze and critique – as a fan of the game, I enjoy every minute of it.
Miami upgraded some key positions on the offensive side of the ball while taking a slight step backwards in key areas on defense, something we should be excited about more than anything. They replaced Mike Gesicki with Smith, drafted two potential playmakers in Wright and Washington and were relatively forced to replace elite losses in the front seven with a committee-esque approach.
And then there’s that Tyreek Hill guy. Hill finished the 2023 season first in fantasy points per route run against man, first in fantasy points per route run against zone, first in fantasy points per route run against single-high, and second in fantasy points per route run against two-high (second only to Mark Andrews, who played in just 10 games). The dude had a fantasy (and real-world football) season to remember and should continue to do so for as long as he chooses to keep playing.
Bear Case ::
I mean, weird stuff happens all the time in this league. But it’ll take some weird stuff going down for this team not to return some top-tier fantasy production for us this coming season. If there’s one hole we can poke in this franchise at this moment, it’s probably that they lack any semblance of depth behind their elite starters, which, as we know, creates a relative single-point failure. The entire house of cards can come crashing down if one of the base pieces goes down.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
The Dolphins are fresh off a season in which they averaged 27.9 points per game, third most in the league behind the Cowboys and 49ers. We have to remember; this was the first season with McDaniel as head coach that also featured a healthy Tua Tagovailoa for the duration of the season. Hill finished the 2023 season second in PPR points per game at 23.5, behind CeeDee Lamb’s 23.7. Except Hill did it while playing alongside Jaylen Waddle, who put up 14.2 PPR points per game in his own right (WR21 in PPR points per game). Hill led the league in target share (33.7 percent) and TPRR (targets per route run) (36.9 percent), while he combined with Waddle to account for 57.1 percent of the team’s targets. Elite concentration on a high-powered offense – yes, please.
Tagovailoa tossed “just” 29 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, a ratio he is going to have to correct if he’s going to truly turn the corner at the NFL level. His 16.7 fantasy points per game ranked just 19th in the league, tied with Baker Mayfield (for comparison). That’s also what happens when your team scores 57 offensive touchdowns, 27 of which come on the ground. Tua is a quarterback that I am almost never drafting unless I have one of (or both of) Hill or Waddle.
Speaking of those rushing scores, Raheem Mostert tied with Christian McCaffrey for the league lead in total touchdowns at 21 and is currently being drafted over five full rounds after teammate De’Von Achane. I get it, Achane is young and the new toy in town, but the two split snaps in six regular-season games together in the 2023 season, during which Mostert found paint 10 times to Achane’s nine. Give me the cheaper of the two at a higher rate (yea, I’ll still have Achane, just not at the rate I’ll have Mostert). The team drafted another speedy back in Wright in the fourth round, but he’s likely more of an insurance piece than a guy likely to force playing time while Mostert and Achane are healthy. Take the shots late, for sure.
Smith reached a speed of 21.5 mph on a 60-yard touchdown catch for the Falcons last season. For those keeping tabs at home, that was the third-fastest speed of any tight end with the ball in his hands since Next Gen Stats started tracking ball-carrier speeds. He’ll fit right in with the rest of the Dolphins’ skill-position players. For that reason, a TE22 valuation seems egregiously low. Yes, please.
Mid-August Update ::
Shaquil Barrett retired, prompting the Dolphins to work out Yannick Ngakoue and Emmanuel Ogbah, two veteran EDGE players prior to camp. That’s important because the Dolphins have an excellent secondary on paper but lost former DC Vic Fangio and have no true difference-maker up front to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The Dolphins are currently projected to score the fourth-most points in 2024 and have seven games with a team total of over 25 points, and a solid 10 games with a game total over 48 points, the latter of which ranks second in the league behind only the Lions (13). Betting markets heavily favor routine shootouts for Miami this season.
The league attempted to address “cheat motion” with a rules update this offseason, which is likeliest to affect Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins and Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers the most (in addition to the remaining 11 offensive play callers to hail from the Gary Kubiak extended coaching tree). Even so, the rules “update” didn’t really update much at all, clearly stating that a player cannot carry forward motion at the snap of the football and cannot utilize instantaneous motion without first being set – this only changed the language to existing rules.
QB Tua Tagovailoa got absolutely paid this offseason with a four-year, $212 million contract extension.
NEW YORK JETS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: OC Nathaniel Hackett returns for his second season with the Jets.
Defense: HC Robert Saleh and DC Jeff Ulbrich return for the fourth season together in New York.
Hard Knocks gave us a solid glimpse into how this team wants to run, which only reinforces our previous convictions.
The Jets derive their identity through their defense, albeit now with the belief that Aaron Rodgers is always going to keep them in games (I believe the quote from Hard Knocks was “See that? We are always going to be in games late with No. 12.”).
Personnel Changes ::
Added OT Morgan Moses and DE Haason Reddick via trade.
Signed OG John Simpson, backup QB Tyrod Taylor, DT Javon Kinlaw, OT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams
Got rid of their smattering of mediocrity in the backup quarterback stable by releasing Brett Rypien and Trevor Siemian and trading Zach Wilson.
Lost five offensive linemen, including starters OT Mekhi Becton and Laken Tomlinson and utility man Billy Turner.
Selected OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu in the first round.
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Patriots x2, Bills x2, Dolphins x2
AFC South (4)::
@Jaguars, @Titans, Texans, Colts
NFC West (4)::
@Cardinals, @49ers, Rams, Seahawks
@Steelers, @Vikings, Broncos
Bull Case ::
Remember, Rodgers played all of two offensive snaps in 2023 before rupturing his Achilles and missing the entire season. As in, this team has one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game coming back this year (yea, save the off-the-field discussion, the dude is a loony – but he sure can spin a ball).
The additions along the offensive line and the signing of Williams should not go understated. Williams is an above-average wide receiver with good length and speed, an elite catch radius and the ability to draw safety attention on the perimeter. In other words, the upgrade from Allen Lazard (who is an elite blocker but not the best all-around wide receiver that opposing defenses have to account for) to Mike Williams is going to make this offense more difficult to account for, particularly when you consider what he can do in conjunction with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The team also has a trio of young wide receivers with upside in Malachi Corley (2024 third-round pick), Jason Brownlee and Xavier Gipson.
The Jets also addressed the backup quarterback position after experiencing first-hand how quickly a season can shift with one play in 2023. Taylor brings a capable veteran presence that can lead an offense should something happen to Rodgers.
Reddick and Javon Kinlaw give DT Quinnen Williams some help along the defensive line. Williams should see far fewer double teams than he’s typically accustomed to.
Bear Case ::
Simpson and Moses are veteran linemen hailing from the Ravens, an organization long known for coaching up linemen to borderline elite status. That said, both are aging veterans that could be more prone to injury. The Jets addressed the line further by selecting rookie OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu in the first round. In a perfect world, the towering rookie can learn behind one of the best to ever play the left tackle position in Smith, but he is on hand to take snaps in his rookie season if needed.
The Jets have three above-average-to-elite playmakers in Williams, Wilson and Hall, but they have little in the way of proven talent behind those three. An ill-timed injury or failure of one of the secondary options to contribute could make the offense more one-dimensional than they would otherwise like here.
Finally, Rodgers has stated that he intends to play two to three more seasons before hanging them up. But he is coming off of a ruptured Achilles and will turn 41 this season. Another injury or poor performance could force the issue for the future first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
Wilson enters his third professional season on the backs of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career, catching 95 balls for 1,042 yards and three touchdowns last year with some of the worst quarterback play imaginable. He finished the season as the WR33 in fantasy points per game while putting up a 27.1 percent target rate and 26 percent TPRR (targets per route run), but he fell outside the top 24 in fantasy points per route run against all primary coverage shells.
Wilson’s upside is tantalizing, but we’ll need to see him take the third-year leap before we consider him in the ranks of the top wide receivers in the league. I phrased it that way on purpose to drive home the fact that Wilson is not yet deserving of his lofty WR8 valuation. The upside is tangible, but Wilson feels like a player that has his ADP propped up due to the current draft meta (early wide receivers, etc. etc.). We’re not in fade territory or anything, just something to keep in mind as we click buttons (or tap our phones).
Hall, on the other hand, has continued to make wine from water during the first two years of his professional career. Last season, Hall ranked first in evaded tackles, fifth in juke rate, 11th in yards per touch, fifth in routes run and first in receiving yards and receptions at the running back position. Finally, his 16.6 weighted opportunities per game a season ago ranked second in the league. He is my RB2 for 2024.
Williams has finished as the WR21 or better in PPR points per game in each of the previous three seasons. Like, yea, the dude has struggled with injuries due to his aggressive play style, but that level of production and consistency should not fall by the wayside. He should provide a physical presence to this offense that opens up things for everyone else, in addition to serving as the prototypical, big-bodied X-type wide receiver for the Jets. A current WR44 valuation feels disrespectful. Curtis Samuel, Jameson Williams and Romeo Doubs are the wide receivers that Williams is currently being drafted next to – good grief. Buy.
I have no qualms buying Rodgers (QB20) and Tyler Conklin (TE25) at current prices. Conklin ran the ninth-most routes at the tight end position last season and held a non-terrible 6.8-yard aDOT. His 16.4 percent red-zone target rate from 2022 gives an added boost to his fantasy profile.
Mid-August Update ::
Mike Williams started camp on PUP list but was removed from it Aug. 7, and he’s expected to begin participating in team drills the week of Aug. 26.
This offense is extremely concentrated amongst Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Williams, with TE Tyler Conklin likely to be on the field a bunch.
The Jets are currently projected to finish the 2024 season in the top half in scoring and are projected to score more than 21 points in 16 of 17 games. That said, they are projected for more than 25 points just twice and are expected to compete in just three games with a game total of over 48 points.
QB Aaron Rodgers is reportedly healthy but is unlikely to play in the preseason.
BUFFALO BILLS
Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::
Offense: OC Joe Brady was retained by the team after taking over offensive play-calling duties halfway through the 2023 season following the departure of Ken Dorsey.
Defense: DC Bobby Babich gets the in-house promotion from linebackers coach; he also previously served with the team as the safeties coach and assistant defensive backs coach.
Personnel Changes ::
Traded WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans.
Let WR Gabe Davis and S Jordan Poyer walk in free agency.
Signed WRs Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins.
Released CB Tre’Davious White.
Drafted WR Keon Coleman in the second round (effectively a first-round selection – they traded back with the Panthers, because when the Panthers call for a trade, you just blindly accept).
Schedule ::
Divisional Games (6)::
Dolphins x2, Patriots x2, Jets x2
AFC South (4)::
@Texans, @Colts, Jaguars, Titans
NFC West (4)::
@Rams, @Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers
@Ravens, @Lions, Chiefs
Bull Case ::
Josh Allen is similar to Patrick Mahomes in that the bull case for his team starts with him. Period. The dual-threat quarterback continues to perform at an elite level, elevating those around him in the process. Furthermore, Brady took the training wheels off Allen once he took over play-calling duties from Dorsey, incorporating a higher rate of designed quarterback rushes and quarterback options. This is good. The Bills have a lot of moving pieces on offense to adjust to, but it all starts with Allen (and that’s a good thing!).
They also lost numerous key players on defense over the previous two offseasons, which should translate to the need to remain more aggressive on offense. That’s important because we’ve seen Sean McDermott transition to a higher emphasis on letting the game come to him, not necessarily looking to maximize each possession on the scoreboard.
Bear Case ::
Man, this team has had significant personnel turnover the previous two offseasons, on both sides of the ball. Their all-in attempt over the previous three seasons fell short of a championship and they’re now dealing with the consequences, primarily induced by cap issues. Diggs, Poyer, White, Tremaine Edmunds, Davis, Micah Hyde… the list goes on.
They also have a real issue with depth up and down the roster in 2024. Good ‘ol Mitch Trubisky is the backup quarterback to start the season. Their offensive line depth is lacking. They have zero depth at wide receiver. Their answer to running back depth was fourth-round rookie Ray Davis. It’s just not a lot to get excited about behind a starting roster now in worse shape than it was over the previous three seasons.
Expectations/Takeaways ::
It is at least noteworthy that Khalil Shakir averaged more yards per game and more fantasy points per game than Diggs after Brady took over play calling in Buffalo last season. Brady really did two things with the offense last season – he incorporated more designed runs for Allen and he became more dynamic on early downs. A lot of the rest of how the Bills handle business remained consistent. Now, that could (and is likely to) change moving into 2024, but the big takeaway here is that the Bills became less worried about preserving Allen’s health and more concerned with scoring points at greater frequency. This is good.
I see a lot of people getting excited for Coleman in Buffalo. If we take coach-speak at face value in April (remember, the NFL draft is the last time we get to see the true intentions of these organizations until games start in September), Coleman was drafted to serve as the X-type wide receiver in Buffalo. This is wonderful news (for Shakir!). Coleman has great hands and catch radius but had difficulty separating in college. That’s fine if he can overcome that shortcoming with body positioning and strength, but that remains to be seen at the NFL level. I’m of the opinion that the biggest winner this offseason for the Bills is Shakir. Shakir should be allowed to continue to play the more dynamic Z-type wide receiver role for the Bills, which utilizes motion and a more robust route tree. Shakir is entering his third season in the league and demonstrated breakout potential last season, as was discussed above. Furthermore, it should be Shakir that is stretching the field in the vertical in addition to seeing schemed looks to the intermediate middle of the field. These are plusses, friends. This might be one of my early hard stances this draft season, and I might end up with 60-80 percent exposure in the early going at a WR53 valuation.
I understand Samuel was given a three-year, $35 million contract this offseason with $23 million guaranteed. If I’m grading that contract, I’m giving it a D-, seriously. And I get the “follow the money” argument. It’s just wrong, and that’s okay! I’m here for you! Samuel’s 7.1-yard aDOT, 1.6 YPRR (yards per route run), 23.0 percent TPRR (targets per route run) route tree and alignment carry significant overlap with that of second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid (49.1 percent slot snap rate in 2023 and 6.0-yard aDOT). Furthermore, both are likely to be on the field together exclusively from 11-personnel, with Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Coleman and Shakir likely seeing the snaps from 12. The signing was bad for Samuel, bad for Kincaid and bad for the Bills. No me gusta. And Samuel currently has the highest valuation of Buffalo wide receivers at No. 106 overall. The same argument can be made of Kincaid in that his current draft valuation is probably higher than it should be, considering the Bills’ offseason choices. Gimme Shakir at cost all day.
As for Coleman, I’m not personally a believer in the fit for this scheme but I’m not opposed to taking shots depending on cost. I’m slightly below consensus on Allen, way below on Samuel and Kincaid, slightly above on James Cook and way above on Shakir.
Mid-August Update ::
Khalil Shakir has reportedly been the talk of camp. It remains unclear how the alignments will play out. In early August a beat reporter in Buffalo listed the WR depth chart as Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and a three-way battle between Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Chase Claypool. However, Claypool has subsequently been waived with an injury settlement and Valdes-Scantling has suffered a neck injury that’s expected to sideline him into the early portion of the regular season.
Even through all the offensive turnover, the Bills are currently projected to be a top five scoring offense in 2024.
Head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have independently stated that tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will both be on the field a lot this year, meaning we’re expecting increased rates of 12-personnel. This is why the wide receiver pecking order matters as much as it does here. Is Samuel going to play all over the formation but rotate through in jumbo sets, or is he not going to leave the field? Is Keon Coleman going to earn the prototypical X-type wide receiver role and not leave the field? Has Shakir played himself into a role where he won’t leave the field? Wide range of outcomes alert for all parties.
The drumbeat is getting louder on fourth-round rookie RB Ray Davis, especially after he rushed for 58 yards on eight carries in the second preseason game. Beat reporters point to James Cook’s poor receiving efficiency, particularly in the red zone, as an area where Davis could excel.