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- AFC East Midseason Recap
By Mike Johnson (@mjohnson86)
Standings after Week 10 ::
Bills 8-2 (Week 12 bye)
Dolphins 3-6
Jets 3-7 (Week 12 bye)
Patriots 3-7 (Week 14 bye)
BUFFALO BILLS
General Notes ::
Josh Allen is once again a top contender for NFL MVP, but his fantasy production is down a bit this season. His rushing ability keeps him relevant with a nice floor and ceiling, but the Bills are more run-heavy this season than years past, which has shown in Allen’s box scores.
James Cook has been very good this season, but two other RBs are in the mix with rookie Ray Davis looking great whenever he’s on the field and Ty Johnson getting situational and passing down work.
The Bills continue to battle injuries among their key receiving options, as WR Keon Coleman, WR Amari Cooper, and TE Dalton Kincaid are all dealing with something right now.
Tight end Dawson Knox will be a great weekly option for any games that Kincaid misses, as he would then be playing nearly every snap for one of the top offenses in the league.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Bills’ offense is relatively spread out in terms of usage and production, but they are humming from a real-life perspective. Buffalo has an 8-2 record and has scored 30+ points in seven of 10 games. Their pass rate is down from past years and they are rotating and using multiple players at all of the skill positions. No one has emerged as a clear “alpha” among the Bills, which is a bit of a gift and a curse as they don’t have someone they know they can go to in big moments but they are also hard for opponents to prepare for as Allen can simply look for the open man rather than having to feel the pressure to force it in a certain direction. When healthy, we should expect the Bills three-WR set to consist of Cooper, Coleman, and Shakir with Kincaid as the primary TE. Cooper, Coleman, and Kincaid are dealing with injuries and could be held out of Week 11 to let them avoid making their injuries worse prior to the natural week of rest and rehab during their Week 12 bye.
Looking Ahead ::
The Bills’ defense has beat up on the weaker opponents they have faced and has only allowed more than 20 points three times this season. That is notable because two of those instances were against the only top-10 DVOA offenses they have faced this season, and the third instance was against the Dolphins at full strength. This is important because the Bills face the Chiefs this week prior to their Week 12 bye, then face three very good offenses in the 49ers, Rams, and Lions in Weeks 13 through 15. Buffalo could (should?) have a nice run of fruitful game environments coming up. In Weeks 16 and 17, the Bills face the Patriots and Jets, who will both likely be just playing out the string at that point. I am particularly bullish on rookie Davis, who is talented and would have a huge role in great matchups and/or game environments if Cook were ever to miss time.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Lions
Run Defense DVOA -- 7th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 3rd
Week 16 -- vs Patriots
Run Defense DVOA -- 26th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 30th
Week 17 -- vs Jets (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 27th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 17th
MIAMI DOLPHINS
General Notes ::
QB Tua Tagovailoa has had mixed results in terms of his own fantasy production this season, but the Dolphins’ offense as a whole goes from one of the worst in the league to above average when he is on the field. He should have some big games ahead of him, but he is always one play away from his season being over if he suffers another concussion.
De’Von Achane has been essentially a top-five RB when Tua has been on the field, despite ceding some work to Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright. The Dolphins’ backfield is always a source of fantasy points when Tua is healthy.
Tyreek Hill has battled a wrist injury and Jaylen Waddle’s production has been poor to say the least, as he is currently the WR62 in PPR leagues and has not scored double-digit points since Week 1.
Tight end Jonnu Smith’s role in the offense has grown throughout the season and he has quietly matched Waddle’s to-date production. He is a sleeper to finish the season as a top-10 TE.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Dolphins’ offense obviously had a huge portion of the season where they were essentially a different team while Tagovailoa was injured. Miami has averaged 23.3 points in the four complete games Tua played, while averaging 10 points per game in the five games that he missed or left early. Everyone is healthy right now and they are starting to click a little bit but have yet to truly take off in the ways we think of from the past couple of seasons when Miami would turn games into track meets.
Looking Ahead ::
The Dolphins are still alive for a playoff berth and have a chance to go on a bit of a run in the second half of the season. Their offense is primed to explode down the stretch, as their next two games are against bottom-five defenses (LVR and NE) and then three of their four games after the Patriots are against top-tier offenses of the Packers, Texans, and 49ers. Since Tua returned to the lineup, the Dolphins have faced three defenses that are playing very well right now (ARI, BUF, and LAR) but have still managed to score 27, 27, and 23 points in those games. This team is set up to post some big scores against weaker competition and also to potentially be involved in some shootouts against strong opposing offenses. Perhaps no team in the NFL is better set up for a huge bounce-back in the second half of the season as the Dolphins.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Texans
Run Defense DVOA -- 2nd
Pass Defense DVOA -- 4th
Week 16 -- vs 49ers
Run Defense DVOA -- 20th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 2nd
Week 17 -- at Browns
Run Defense DVOA -- 15th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 23rd
NEW YORK JETS
General Notes ::
Aaron Rodgers has had some flashes of his old self, but overall, he’s been extremely underwhelming in 2024 as he returns from the torn Achilles he suffered in 2023.
Breece Hall continues to lead the backfield, but rookie Braelon Allen has been impressive and has stolen some short-yardage work and played in a bit of a timeshare in some matchups.
Garrett Wilson has had a few monster weeks and is on pace for the best season of his career. He currently leads the NFL with 100 targets through 10 weeks.
Davante Adams has now played four games with the Jets and has 39 targets in that time. The 9.8 targets per game during that stretch is sixth in the NFL, with Wilson being one of the five WRs being targeted more frequently.
Rookie WR Malachi Corley and Xavier Gipson appear to be splitting the third WR job for the Jets at this point. We could see Corley be featured more if/when the Jets are knocked out of playoff contention.
Tyler Conklin is the top tight end for New York, with the young Jeremy Ruckert serving in the TE2 role. Similar to Corley, it wouldn’t be shocking for Ruckert to have an increased role late in the season.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Jets have one of the more concentrated offenses in the league with Adams, Wilson, and Hall accounting for roughly 70%+ of the offense’s usage since the acquisition of Adams. They have only scored 16 points per game during those four games, but they have faced three very good defenses in HOU, PIT, and ARI. The Jets have essentially gone “all-in” for 2024, and while for most of us this season looks like a lost one for them, they are not likely to go quietly.
Looking Ahead ::
The Jets’ upcoming schedule gives them some hope to make a run and fight for a playoff spot in the AFC. They have a home game against the Colts in Week 11 that is essentially a must-win if they want to give themselves hope. The Bills already have eight wins and the Jets have seven losses, which means 10-7 is the best possible outcome for New York and it’s almost impossible to imagine the Jets could win the division. This means they would need a wild-card berth and the Broncos currently sit in the seventh spot in the AFC with a 5-5 record. We rarely, if ever, see a team make the playoffs with a losing record, which means the Jets basically need to run the table or lose one game at most over their last seven games. The only team remaining on their schedule with a winning record is the Bills in Week 17, so if the Jets can get their act together, they have an outside chance. None of their remaining games besides the Bills are against defenses ranked in the top 15 in the league, so there are no excuses and this offense should be very productive down the stretch.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Jaguars
Run Defense DVOA -- 12th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 32nd
Week 16 -- vs Rams
Run Defense DVOA -- 21st
Pass Defense DVOA -- 21st
Week 17 -- at Bills (second matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 5th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 11th
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
General Notes ::
Drake Maye has sparked the Patriots’ offense a bit and has made some big-time throws and showcased his rushing ability.
Rhamondre Stevenson is dominating backfield usage with JaMychal Hasty and Antonio Gibson working in complementary roles. Stevenson should stay heavily involved as long as he is healthy as the Patriots look to keep the best possible supporting cast on the field to help Maye’s development.
Second-year WR Kayshon Boutte has emerged as the top perimeter WR for the Patriots, leading the team in snaps each of the past two weeks while being targeted six times in each game.
DeMario Douglas has entrenched himself as the slot WR in “11” personnel (three-WR sets). He has 14 targets over the last two games and has two games of nine targets since Maye took over at QB.
The Patriots have five other WRs vying for snaps, routes, and targets and none of them currently have bankable roles as the team seems to change their playing time every week. Rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker may be given bigger roles late in the season.
Hunter Henry is the top tight end for the Patriots and has been heavily targeted by Maye in most games that he has started. Austin Hooper is the TE2 for the Patriots and played a lot of snaps against the Bears when the Patriots led most of the game and the weather was poor, which led to a high rate of two-TE personnel for New England.
Offensive Outlook ::
The Patriots have won two of their last three games after starting the year 1-6. Their one loss during that three-game stretch was an overtime loss by three points against the Titans. Granted, their wins have come against the Bears and Jets – who have their own issues right now – but we can still see that this Patriots team can be competitive against weaker teams and will compete for the full 60 minutes to give Maye every opportunity for growth in games that turn non-competitive.
Looking Ahead ::
The Patriots have a tough slate of defenses during the fantasy playoffs with ARI, BUF, and LAC all playing at a high level right now. Two of those games will also take place in Buffalo and New England in the dead of winter, so who knows what kind of weather they may be dealing with. That being said, this situation is reminiscent of the Bills during Josh Allen’s rookie season with a no-name supporting cast, a struggling defense that will allow strong offensive opponents to score points to push game environments, and an organization fully committed to developing their young QB. Maye could have a similar second half to the season as Allen did in his rookie year as he figures things out and the Patriots cut him loose. Keep an eye out for how things go for New England in the coming weeks, as this could be a team to target in DFS and they could have some waiver-wire gems for our season-long teams.
Fantasy Playoffs ::
Week 15 -- at Cardinals
Run Defense DVOA -- 13th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 14th
Week 16 -- at Bills (first matchup)
Run Defense DVOA -- 5th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 11th
Week 17 -- vs Chargers
Run Defense DVOA -- 18th
Pass Defense DVOA -- 5th