OWS Fam,

The first ever OWS Daily Dose Draft Guide is now available!

In today’s e-mail, we give you a look at OWS’s Mike Johnson’s top seven potential draft-day sleepers across multiple positions for fantasy football drafting season. Read on to find out what players our expert has seen devalued or overlooked altogether during his own drafts heading into the 2024 NFL season.

Over the next three days, we will also be delivering the following critical draft-season content directly to your inbox:

9/1 - Five Fades Series

9/2 - Five Fades Series

9/3 - Five Fades Series

To consume the Draft Guide in its entirety, follow this link to One Week Season:
https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/drafting-season/

It’s time to lock in Fam!

Draft Guide: Seven Sleepers

By: Mike Johnson (@mjohnson_86)

A fantasy football draft is usually made up of somewhere between 14 and 20 rounds, but within all of those rounds are different points in the draft and different things we want to target::

• In the early parts of drafts, we want to target studs whose performance we can count on. In your standard fantasy football “home league” you aren’t likely to win your league in the early rounds, but you can lose it.

• In the middle rounds of your draft, we want to be targeting players who have underrated upside and could end up producing as well or better than those players taken in the early rounds.

• The late rounds of drafts are where you can really hit home runs, however, and make the rest of the season much easier on yourself by hitting on those “Sleepers” who your competition is overlooking. Most late-round picks don’t work out and end up being dropped by the team that drafted them at some point due to lack of performance, injury, or trying to cover bye weeks. You can win your league without hitting on late-round picks, but boy it sure is easier when you do hit a couple.

In that spirit, here are my Seven Sleepers who I am seeing selected in the last rounds (or not at all) in a lot of standard “home leagues” that have the potential to get off to a hot start and give your team a boost and/or become a staple of your team for the long haul.

1. Josh Downs, WR, IND

If you paid attention to reports out of Indianapolis throughout the spring and summer, you would have heard a consistent drum beat about how impressive Josh Downs was and how he may be Anthony Richardson’s favorite target. On August 7th, Downs suffered a high-ankle sprain and was expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks. This has caused the market to cool significantly on Downs and he is now available very late in fantasy drafts. This is a potential top receiver for an ascending offense available with one of your last picks – the definition of a “Sleeper”.

2. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, NE

The Patriots have a history of being a death sentence for young, highly drafted receivers. However, with Bill Belichick gone and a more modern outlook, things could be changing. Also working in Polk’s favor is the fact that he is extremely talented and has very mediocre competition for targets. The Patriots aren’t likely to be an offensive juggernaut this year, but Polk could challenge for the league lead in targets among rookies. 

3. JK Dobbins, RB, LAC

Dobbins has a shaky injury history and is on a new team, but he seems to be the lead back for a coach and team that are committed to the run. The Chargers didn’t play him during the preseason at all, so there were no clips to get people excited about him and the questions around his injury history make it hard for people to click his name. You will not find a lead running back for a run-heavy team this late very often. While everyone else worries about the negatives – “What if Dobbins is never the same? What if the Chargers offense is really bad?”.....we can be thinking about the upside – “What if Dobbins is able to regain his form? What if the Chargers offense is serviceable?”

4. Trey Benson, RB, ARI

The Cardinals claim that James Conner is their lead running back and will have a big workload. I believe them. However, sometimes the best-laid plans go awry. Conner himself has battled injuries throughout his career and the Cardinals’ offense is a sneaky bet to be one of the best in the league. The other backs after Benson don’t offer much promise, so in the scenario where Conner goes down, you’d be sitting on a potential top-12 RB in Benson. Draft him and hold him as long as you can.

5. Tyler Conklin, TE, NYJ

Conklin has quietly ranked 8th and 13th, respectively, in targets among tight ends over the last two seasons while dealing with abysmal QB play and a horrendous offensive environment. This season the Jets should finally have competent QB play and are likely to score more points and create more yards. Conklin is often available in the last rounds of drafts and makes a ton of sense as a dart throw for those who pass on the higher-end options at the position or as a TE2 with upside.

6. Jonnu Smith, TE, MIA

This is one of the best “player fits scheme” situations I can remember for a uniquely talented player in Smith and a creative offensive guru in head coach Mike McDaniel. Smith is outstanding with the ball in his hands after the catch and the Dolphins are terrific at scheming the ball into their playmakers’ hands in space. Tight-end scoring is often closely correlated with touchdowns, and the Dolphins have a chance to lead the league in scoring this year.

7. Geno Smith, QB, SEA

For those of you who like to live dangerously and wait until the end of your draft for quarterbacks, hoping to strike gold with a late-round gem and/or just play the “streaming” game (picking up different QBs weekly with good matchups), Geno Smith may be exactly what you are looking for this season. Smith has a new offensive coordinator that may be opening things up, a terrific receiving corps, and a terrific schedule to open the season. Seattle opens the year facing the Broncos and Patriots (who are the bottom-two teams in the NFL in projected win totals) and then has two potential shootouts with the Dolphins and Lions. Smith could come out of the gates red-hot to start 2024 and carry your team that builds up your other positions during the early parts of your draft.