OWS Fam,

The first ever OWS Daily Dose Draft Guide is now available!

In today’s e-mail, we give you a look at OWS’s Mike Johnson’s core players at each position for fantasy football drafting season. Read on to find out who our expert has prioritized most often during his own drafts heading into the 2024 NFL season.

Over the next four days, we will also be delivering the following critical draft-season content directly to your inbox:

8/31 - Seven Sleepers

9/1 - Five Fades Series

9/2 - Five Fades Series

9/3 - Five Fades Series

To consume the Draft Guide in its entirety, follow this link to One Week Season:
https://oneweekseason.com/the-scroll/drafting-season/

It’s time to lock in Fam!

Mike’s Guys

By Mike Johnson

While our main focus here at One Week Season is on the elements of game theory and a deep understanding of our contests and competition, there is no question that player selection is an absolutely critical part of being successful in Best Ball.

With that in mind, and with three months of drafting done since the NFL Draft concluded and the major contests were released, I put together this article outlining the three players at each position who I find myself drafting at a high rate and/or actively thinking about getting on my roster in optimal ways while I am drafting.

Said another way, rankings are one thing, but when you are actually on the clock to make a selection, there is often a “gravity” towards certain players that causes you to reach for them ahead of not only their ADP but also where you have them ranked….or in other scenarios, they may fall in a draft and you abandon your previous strategy for that draft in order to roster them at a discount. 

As we head into the heart of drafting season, these are the guys that I have the most conviction about and believe in with great confidence relative to where the field is valuing them. 

Quarterback

Caleb Williams, CHI: This is a player who enters the league with one of the more impressive skill sets we have ever seen from a rookie QB. He has been touted for years and produced at an elite level in college. Now he enters perhaps the best situation a high-end rookie QB has ever walked into with two stud veteran WRs, a talented and high-pedigree rookie WR, a solid stable of tight ends, and a deep RB corps. This combination of elite talent and elite situation could very easily lead to the best rookie QB season we have ever witnessed. Being drafted in the 8th-11th round depending on the site/format, I believe Williams will be a top-6 QB in 2025.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX: Speaking of a young and highly talented QB, Lawrence took a bit of a step back in 2023 after having a dynamic sophomore season. This year, the Jaguars added Brian Thomas, Jr. and Gabe Davis to their receiving corps, giving Lawrence a stable of pass catchers that complement each other better and setting him up for potentially his best season yet. The AFC South should be more competitive than in recent years, and Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee all have ascending offenses – which could lead to more high-scoring games for the Jaguars.

Will Levis, TEN: Levis has a lot of tools that made him an intriguing prospect coming out of college. He wasn’t dominant by any means in his rookie season in 2023, but with the previous regime’s slow-moving and run-based scheme, he still did enough to catch my eye. This year, he has a terrific corps of skill players and a huge upgrade in coaching/play-calling.  Levis is by far my favorite late-round QB target, and a top-12 season would not surprise me in the slightest.

Running Back

Joe Mixon, HOU: Despite a slightly elevated age, Mixon is entering perhaps the best situation of his career. His efficiency has struggled in recent years in Cincinnati, but a large part of that was because of his offensive line and predictable play-calling. Now Mixon walks into a workhorse role on an ascendant offense with one of the better offensive lines he has had in his career and a play caller (Bobby Slowik) who comes from the Shanahan coaching tree and should give Mixon the biggest running lanes of his career. His main “competition” for carries is Dameon Pierce (who this coaching staff has shown little to no trust in), Cam Akers (who has torn both Achilles in the last four years), and sixth-round rookie Jawhar Jordan (who played in the second half of the first preseason game). Mixon could have one of the best workloads in the league while playing on a top-5 offense.

James Cook, BUF: Cook had some huge games down the stretch for the Bills in 2023 and accumulated nearly 1,600 total yards. Now, Buffalo has a depleted receiver corps but the same Super Bowl aspirations, and his main competition is a veteran journeyman and a fourth-round rookie. Cook himself was slowly brought into the mix as a rookie, so I expect him to dominate touches in this backfield as long as games are close. The Bills should still score a lot this season, but their defense is likely to take a step back, which should lead to some shootouts. Cook is the type of back in the type of situation that, in December, we all look back and wonder how he wasn’t a third-round pick.

Rico Dowdle, DAL: The Cowboys’ offense took off last season by throwing the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. This year, they should be expected to take the same approach, and Dowdle has the best receiving skill set of the Cowboys RBs. He is also the youngest and most dynamic while drawing praise from coaches and positive reports from beat writers. Ezekiel Elliott and Royce Freeman appear to be his main competition for touches, and neither of them is overly impressive at this point in their respective careers. Dowdle is being treated as a time-share back but has the potential to be a lead back in the “Aaron Jones with the Packers” mold, who gets most of the high-value touches and busts a few big plays.

BONUS:: Austin Ekeler, WAS: Ekeler was consistently a top-6 pick in 2023 fantasy drafts before he dealt with a litany of injuries that hurt his efficiency and a dysfunctional Chargers coaching staff that failed to create many scoring opportunities. Ekeler does not have the mileage on his legs that most RBs his age do, as he was an undrafted free agent coming out of college and had less than 250 touches over his first two NFL seasons. Ekeler is now healthy and on a new, potentially dynamic offense. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s scheme consistently creates open running lanes for its backs, and Ekeler gets the benefit of playing next to a dual-threat QB, which also helps RB efficiency. He is unlikely to have an elite workload, but his profile is equal or better than some RBs going a few rounds before him.

Wide Receiver

Malik Nabers, NYG: This is a wildly talented player on an offense where he is far and away the best offensive weapon. He also has a coach who is terrific at scheming the ball to his best players. Mediocre QB play and excessive defensive attention are the biggest obstacles Nabers will face this year, but he has the talent to overcome both. If Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn’t in the same draft class, Nabers would likely be going a full round earlier. 

Chris Godwin, TB: Godwin is an immensely talented and physical player who has been held back the last three years, as he returned from an ACL injury in 2022 and then was moved to the perimeter for most of the 2023 season. This year he has a new offensive coordinator who previously worked with the Rams who says Godwin will work in the “Cooper Kupp role”. Wheels up. Godwin is right in his prime at 28 years old and about to walk into the best role of his career. 

Khalil Shakir, BUF: Despite having to work his way up the depth chart his first two years in the league, Shakir has made a name for himself. As a matter of fact, he outproduced Stefon Diggs over the last half of 2023 (which probably played a big role in Buffalo moving on from Diggs). The Bills signed Curtis Samuel in free agency and selected raw but gifted rookie Keon Coleman 33rd overall in the NFL Draft – but my money is on Shakir emerging as Josh Allen’s top wide receiver in 2024. That’s a good role to have.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts, ATL: Freeeddooommmmmmm!!! Finally free from Arthur Smith’s scheme/play-calling and sub-par QB play, Pitts is about to have the best QB play of his career and play for an offensive coordinator who came from the Rams, where they are terrific at scheming the ball into the hands of their best players. Pitts has a legitimate shot at finishing the season as TE1, yet he is the sixth TE off the board in almost every format.

Jonnu Smith, MIA: Last season, Jonnu played the role of “spoiler” for many fantasy managers as he cut into the role and production of Pitts. While that was a relatively annoying experience, the reality is that Smith is a menace after the catch and very good at blocking. Those are traits that should endear him to his new head coach, Mike McDaniel. Miami specifically targeted Smith because of how well his traits fit their scheme, and I’ll be relatively surprised if he isn’t a top-10 tight end this season.

Isaiah Likely, BAL: In 2022, Likely saw more than five targets in two games and he averaged 20.5 DraftKings points in those two games. In 2023, Mark Andrews got hurt late in the season and Likely finished as the TE5 in PPR scoring over the last five weeks. Likely is consistently available in the 16th or 17th rounds and is one play away from being an elite option at his position. Add to that the fact that Baltimore is likely to play him more this season even when Andrews is active, and you have a supremely talented player in an elite offense at a bargain basement price.

Full Transparency ::

Here are “My Guys” from 2023 and how they fared::

QB

• Lamar Jackson – QB3, NFL MVP

• Anthony Richardson – Only started and finished two games, QB1 in points per game in those games

• Jordan Love – QB20 by ADP, QB5 for the season

RB

• Jahmyr Gibbs – RB3 in PPR points per game from Week 7 to 17

• Cam Akers – Right situation, wrong player (Kyren Williams RB2 season)

• James Cook – RB11 overall in PPR scoring, RB5 from Week 11 to 17

WR

• Zay Flowers – WR40 by ADP, WR25 overall 

• Jameson Williams – Bust, six-game suspension followed by only two games of double-digit PPR points

• Jalin Hyatt – Bust, failed to solidify a full-time role early in the season despite little competition and only had two games of double-digit PPR points

TE

• TJ Hockenson – TE1 through 15 weeks, prior to tearing his ACL

• Gerald Everett – Bust, missed several games and only scored double-digit PPR points three times

• Isaiah Likely – TE5 over the last five weeks of the season after Mark Andrews was injured